2020 Dynasty Capsule: Carolina Panthers
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
The Panthers finished last in the NFC South with a 5-11 record in 2019. It was the second straight losing season, leading to the in-season dismissal of longtime coach Ron Rivera. Enter Matt Rhule for the 2020 season.
Dynasty owners have to be excited about their shares of stocks in Carolina. There are a lot of young skill position players with plenty of value and potential. The future is bright.
Quarterback
Cam Newton (ADP: 159.67, QB20)
Age: 30
The veteran’s status is cloudy at best. Due $21,100,000 for 2020, the Panthers can cut Newton and save $19 million in cap while only suffering a $2 million dead money hit. With just $32,687,733 in cap space entering 2020 and two young signal callers with potential on the roster, a trade or release seems the most likely outcome (data courtesy of Over the Cap).
Now seems to be the time to sell. The versatile quarterback failed to play 16 games for the second consecutive season and will be an old 31 when the season begins. The landing spot will play a huge role in determining his value, but it may be wise to get what you can now. Using the trade finder courtesy of DLF, we can see there is some logic in moving the signal caller now. As with any trade, there is risk it may end up biting you in the behind, but the wise play may be to take what you can get.
Another reason to sell can be found using the excellent new Yearly Data App tool now available from DLF. We can see that while Newton started his career as a sure fire QB1, but the decline has been steady save for 2017 when he was the QB2 on the season. If you want to learn how to use this tool, the article can be found here from our own John Hesterman. Give him a follow while you are here.
Kyle Allen (ADP: 235.33, QB38)
Age: 23
Part of the reason the aforementioned Newton may be expendable is the presence of Kyle Allen. The second-year quarterback played in 13 games, starting 12 of them. After a four-touchdown performance in Week 3, the former Houston Cougar only threw more than two touchdowns once. That came in Week 12 against the New Orleans Saints. While the numbers were not great, he did lead them to five wins in his first six starts before losing seven straight games to end the season. With owner David Tepper wanting his team set up for long-term success, starting with a young corps of signal callers seems to be the sensible approach.
Expect Allen to compete with Will Grier for a backup role if Cam does indeed depart from Carolina. As far as dynasty value, the current ADP seems to be a bit low considering new coach Matt Rhule is expected to heavily involve his running backs in the passing game as he did at Baylor. Getting the ball in Christian McCaffrey’s hands seems to be a wise strategy for any coach. The presence of D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel are also a boon to any signal callers value in Charlotte next season. Allen is worthy of a back-end roster stash in case he emerges as the starter for the Panthers. Monitor free agency and the draft to try and determine his true value. It is interesting to note his ADP is identical to Jarrett Stidham who has attempted four career passes in the NFL.
Will Grier (ADP: 240.83, QB43)
Age: 24
The West Virginia alum fell flat on his face in his two 2019 starts. The first start saw Grier throw three interceptions and take five sacks while throwing for zero touchdowns and complete just 27 of 44 passes for 224 yards. Grier was even worse in Week 17, completing just one of eight for four yards before suffering an ankle injury. With Newton likely gone and Allen potentially a career backup, look for Carolina to shake up the position in the draft or via free agency. Grier holds minimal dynasty appeal.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey (ADP: 1.00, RB1)
Age: 23
To no surprise to anyone, the Stanford grad is the consensus first overall pick in startup formats. The soon to be 24-year-old is in a league of his own. Let that sink in. CMC is still only 23 right now. As mentioned above, Rhule likes to involve his backs in the passing game. This makes McCaffrey almost a lock to get over 100 receptions for the third straight season.
It is difficult to put a real price on his dynasty value. If you own him, you can ask for the world and likely get it. If you are trying to acquire, expect to pay a king’s ransom. Going back to the well with the DLF Trade Finder, we see his worth is all over the board.
Reggie Bonnafon (ADP: N/A)
Age: 24
The converted quarterback is an intriguing player in Carolina. Just signed to a one-year deal on February fourth and a little used number two back, Bonnafon did play in every game last season, primarily as a special teamer. The Louisville grad did average 7.3 yards per carry on just 16 carries. The appealing part is his receiving chops. He caught five touchdowns in his junior season and pulled in 21 receptions his senior year. New coach Matt Rhule may decide he wants to involve him more due to his versatility. Monitor Jordan Scarlett’s health and the activity this off-season on the position. He is a name to watch.
Mike Davis (ADP: N/A)
Age: 26
The journeyman back is under contract for 2020 but can be cut with zero dead cap money and a savings of $3 million. Look for the Panthers to move on while trying to get younger and build the roster for long-term, sustained success. The soon to be 27-year-old played just eight snaps in five games in Carolina, and that was in the always meaningless Week 17. Davis can safely be left on waivers.
Jordan Scarlett (ADP: N/A)
Age: 23
Much like Davis, Scarlett only saw eight snaps on offense all season. However, that was over the course of nine games. Soon to be 24 in just his second year in the league, Scarlett may need to have a strong camp to earn any type of role in 2020. His draft capital (5th round, 154th overall) does not assure him of anything and an average, not great college career leaves his future murky at best (data courtesy of Sports Reference). The Florida grad can be safely left on the wire except in the deepest of formats.
Marcus Murphy (Reserve/Futures)
Age: 28
The former New Orleans Saint and Buffalo Bill did not see the field in 2019. A career special teamer with just 60 carries for 291 yards over five seasons out of college, the aging back has zero dynasty value.
Wide Receiver
DJ Moore (ADP: 19.637, WR9)
Age: 22
The value may never be higher for the star wideout. Maybe Cam Newton is his kryptonite. Moore was a borderline WR3 with Newton at the helm but vaults up to a high WR2 without him. Granted, he was a rookie when he played most of his games with Cam, but there is a solid enough sample size to at least have the conversation. Using the splits tool soon to be available from DLF, we can see the difference is substantial.
Going back to his value, a savvy move may be to take advantage of the hype and trade for a “veteran” who is just 25 years old. Using the Trade Analyzer from DLF, we can see that the value is similar to that of Amari Cooper.
There are a lot of unknowns in Carolina. Will Cam be back? What will the offense look like with Rhule running the show?
On the other hand, it is comforting that the Maryland grad was able to put up the numbers he did with poor quarterback play in 2019. Moore is certainly a tantalizing prospect, but there are arguments to be made for trading him for a more proven asset. This all depends on your propensity for risk and your overall dynasty strategy.
Curtis Samuel (ADP: 81.3, WR39)
Age: 23
It was a bit of a disappointing season for Samuel owners with a WR43 finish in 2019. The perceptions were that he would break out in his third year in the league. Poor quarterback play and the emergence of Moore put those plans on hold. Using the splits tool again soon to be available from DLF, we see that the Ohio State grad is a WR3 without Newton. Maybe all of the Panthers receivers would benefit from Cam moving on. Samuel is a value at his current ADP with the potential to break into the WR2 category during any given season.
Chris Hogan (ADP: N/A)
Age: 32
The vet is a free agent in 2020 and with the Panthers looking to get younger, look for them to move on. Hogan was injured most of 2019 and only saw significant usage in Week 16 and 17. Even then, the journeyman saw just ten targets over three games. Going on 33 when the season starts, the market will likely be dry for the Monmouth alum. He belongs on waivers in all formats.
Jarius Wright (ADP: N/A)
Age: 30
The veteran wideout is under contract for 2020 and played a meaningful role for the Panthers in 2019. Wright saw at least 50% of the snaps in all but one of 17 games, seeing 58 targets on the year. Despite the involvement, there is minimal dynasty value here. The former Arkansas Razorback had zero touchdowns and just 28 receptions for 296 yards on the season. He can be safely left on the wire in all formats.
Brandon Zylstra (ADP: N/A)
Age: 26
The small school wideout made some noise in a meaningless Week 17 game against the New Orleans Saints. The second-year pro from Concordia-Moorhead caught six of eight targets for 96 yards on just 32 snaps. Zylstra will likely see much of 2020 on the practice squad barring a rash of injuries to the receiving corps. There is no value here, especially at age 26.
DeAndrew White (ADP: N/A)
Age: 28
The former national champ from Alabama has been in the league since 2015 and has a total of seven career receptions. At age 28, that is not likely to improve anytime soon. Leave him on the scrap heap.
Damion Jeanpiere Jr. (Reserve/Futures)
Age: 23
The speedy receiver out of Nicholls State did not see the field in 2019. The FCS alum did see him average 19.32 yards per catch while scoring three touchdowns during his senior season. Clocked at a 4.25 second 40-yard dash which would have been the fastest at the combine, you can see the appeal. At just 23, it is a name to at least monitor for dynasty purposes.
Ishmael Hyman (Reserve/Futures)
Age: 24
Just signed in early 2020 from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Hyman did see two games of action after injuries decimated the Bucs offense. In those games, the James Madison grad saw just four targets, catching two of them for 34 yards. With a rebuild likely in Carolina, it is a name to at least monitor in off-season activities.
Tight End
Ian Thomas (ADP: 148.50, TE19)
Age: 23
Thrust into the feature tight end role with the departure of Greg Olsen, the ADP is steadily on the rise for the young tight end out of Indiana. With many other team needs, it is likely the Panthers stand put with Thomas as the leader on the depth chart entering 2020.
There are plenty of reasons for Carolina to be optimistic about the big tight end thriving without Olsen. A look at the past two seasons show that he can produce as the top player at the position. There is a decent sample size of data to look at with a 32-game sample. In nine games without the veteran Olsen, he slots in as the TE7 during that span. The ADP screams steal, and you should try to grab shares on the cheap if it is not too late already. Look at the splits and decide for yourself if you want a piece or not.
Greg Olsen (ADP: 239.50, TE46)
Age: 34
Eds. note: Olsen entered into a one-year deal with the Seahawks on February 19.
The veteran tight end and the Panthers parted ways on February 3rd. His landing spot will go a long way toward determining value, but age and injury history have to be considered here. With visits scheduled with the Buffalo Bills and Washington Redskins, the former Chicago Bear has expressed interest in a possible reunion in the Windy City.
All three cities have a need for a lead tight end of his caliber, and it would be a big boost to his value. Keep in mind, it has been three years since the former Miami Hurricane completed a 16-game season. Olsen proved he can still get it done with 52 receptions in 14 games in 2019. He is certainly worth a stash at the back end of rosters at his current price.
Chris Manhertz (ADP: N/A)
Age: 27
The journeyman tight end saw just one target in 2019. Entering the season at age 28, there is no value for the blocking specialist that barely sees the field.
Marcus Baugh (Reserve/Futures)
Age: 25
The Ohio State alum has not seen an NFL field since graduating in 2017. The big tight end did manage five touchdowns his senior season in Columbus, but advancing age and lack of any playing time leave him with no reason to be optimistic going forward.
Temarrick Hemingway (Reserve/Futures)
Age: 26
A defender by trade, Hemingway tried to latch on in camp with the Panthers but did not see the field in 2019. Under contract for 2020, the raw tight end may at least see the 53-man roster with Greg Olsen’s departure. There is still nothing to see here.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
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