20/20: JK Dobbins

Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we profile 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2020 by giving you 20 facts you must know.

1.) Player Name – JK Dobbins

2.) College – Ohio State

3.) Height/Weight – 5’11″, 217 pounds

4.) Birthdate – 12/17/1998 (21 years old)

5.) Class – Junior

6.) Basic college stats – Dobbins was extremely productive across the board in college as both a rusher and receiver. He crested 1,000 rushing yards and 20 receptions in each of his three seasons, which is outstanding. He burst onto the scene as a freshman, regressed some as a sophomore, and then rebounded with his explosion this season. He split the backfield with Mike Weber in 2017 and 2018 before dominating touches this year.

Courtesy of sports-reference.com.

I’ll get into some of his mind-boggling statistics and records later on.

7.) NFL Draft round projection – Early day two. He is talented enough to be drafted in the first round, but so are a couple other running backs in this class. Plenty have mocked him to the Miami Dolphins towards the end of the first, but he’s more often found in the second round. It’s unlikely that he’s still on the board past where the Falcons select in the second round.

8.) Current NFL comparison – Josh Jacobs. Collegiate production aside – we know that Jacobs was somewhat polarizing as a prospect last season because of his lack of production at Alabama – the two running backs win in similar ways. They are both plus pass catchers (despite the Raiders mystifyingly not using Jacobs in this way), possess great balance through contact, display above-average vision, and show power and agility.

Personally, my favorite comparison for Dobbins is a more athletic version of Knowshon Moreno when he was coming out of Georgia. Moreno was an outstanding prospect that ended up underwhelming outside of his fantastic 2013 season where he totaled nearly 1,600 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns. He performed poorly due to injuries, in part, but as a college player Moreno was very agile and had great balance and plus vision. His scouting report on NFL.com mirrors how I view Dobbins.

9.) Best possible destination – We link running backs to the Buccaneers, Texans, and Chiefs every year. I’m skeptical that the Chiefs take a runner early, but the Bucs and Texans feel like teams that would have interest if he’s available in the second round. With the Falcons rumored to be willing to part with Devonta Freeman and his contract, Atlanta a realistic destination.

There are a few intriguing landing spots for running backs this year, but it’s hard to pinpoint a specific team until we see how free agency shakes out. Any team with a decent offense and an opening at the position would be beneficial for an incoming rookie’s value. Dobbins has the size and skill set to play on all three downs, so any team that provides him an opportunity to touch the ball as many times as possible is an ideal.

10.) Worst possible destination –  Any situation with an established NFL starter is the worst-case scenario, but I anticipate his draft capital being prohibitive of a team opting to invest in a backup at a replaceable position.

Landing with a team with an established pass catching back would be sub-optimal. There are very few teams with zero options at running back, but settling into a timeshare in a city like Indianapolis or Detroit would be unfortunate.

11.) Best current skill – Vision/contact balance. Dobbins is an extremely well-rounded running back that does pretty much everything well, but few of his traits really stand out as elite. He can catch the ball out of the backfield, runs decent routes, has more than adequate athleticism, finishes his runs, and is elusive in the open field.

I think his best trait is his vision. He played behind a terrific offensive line, but he was able to consistently create for himself, too. He is a patient back and a very quick processor who sees holes before they develop and attacks lanes violently once they open up.

12.) Skill that needs to be improved – Pass protection. As mentioned above, he doesn’t have many true holes in his game. In my eyes, pass protection is the biggest opportunity for him to improve as a player.

Critically, he understands the nuances of the technique when blocking – it’s just that his execution is inconsistent. He is usually in the right place and can identify his assignments prior to contact, but he doesn’t always willingly engage.

Pass protection issues can sometimes keep players from staying on the field at all times, and while Dobbins is far from bad enough in this area for it to be a major concern, some improvement here would make him a tremendous all-around player.

13.) Past/current rookie ADP – His stock skyrocketed last season, and he’s now an early first-round selection in rookie drafts. On average, he’s going off the board second in rookie drafts, behind only D’Andre Swift and ahead of Jonathan Taylor. He’s fourth overall in superflex drafts, behind Joe Burrow, Swift, and Tua Tagovailoa. In superflex, he was drafted no earlier than third and no later than seventh in any of the six drafts used to collect data, while he ranged from second to sixth in our ten 1QB mock drafts.

14.) Projected dynasty value – As usual, a rookie’s dynasty value will to some degree hinge on the draft capital spent on him in the real NFL Draft. February’s dynasty startup ADP isn’t on the site as of this writing (Eds. note: it is now), but thanks to Ryan McDowell, we know that he is being valued in between Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs at the moment. At this juncture, I’d prefer Dobbins to both players.

This shows that Dobbins is already being valued as a top-15 dynasty running back. Depending on landing spot, he could push for top-10 value right away with room to grow into an elite building block as the backs currently at the top of rankings begin to age past their primes.

For what it’s worth, when including rookies, he is currently my RB15 and is in a tier with fellow rookies Swift and Taylor, along with Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette, and Aaron Jones.

15.) Metrics – he broke out in his true freshman season at the age of 18 (18.7), which is terrific. Per DLF’s new College Market Share App, he’s been above the baseline regression target mark in market share metrics (rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and receptions) for at least two of his three seasons. Moreover, he surpassed a 15% dominator rating threshold during his collegiate career by a significant margin (28.2%).

He passes the metrics test with flying colors.

He was productive as a receiver. His market share numbers don’t look overly impressive, but he’s shared offenses with countless NFL talents, including Terry McLaurin, Parris Campbell, KJ Hill, Mike Weber, and future stars Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Binjimen Victor and Austin Mack may or may not have NFL futures, but they were productive collegiate receivers Dobbins had to compete with as well.

16.) Production, production, production – Let me rattle off some incredible statistics:

• First Ohio State running back in history to notch 2,000 rushing yards in a single season.
• Three consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons, matching Archie Griffin as the only Buckeye with three such seasons. Dobbins was the only player to do it in his first three seasons.
• Set an Ohio State freshman record by rushing for 1,403 yards and had the second-highest yards-per-carry average in school history (7.2) that season.
• Caught a pass in 13 consecutive games and in 20 out of 22 past contests.
• Rushed for over 100 yards against Michigan’s third-ranked overall defense (101 yards), Wisconsin’s first-ranked rush defense (174 yards), and Michigan State’s third-ranked rush defense (124 yards) in 2018.
• Missed his senior year of high school after getting hurt on the first play of the season, but rushed for 2,243 yards and 37 TDs as a sophomore and 2,740 rushing yards and 35 touchdowns as a junior.

For the record, Ohio State has had some tremendous running backs throughout history, including Ezekiel Elliott, Eddie George, Keith Byars, and two-time Heisman winner Archie Griffin, as well as other solid talents like Carlos Hyde and Beanie Wells.

17.) Sophomore season – He had phenomenal freshman and junior seasons, but his second year was a down year by his standards, one that took him out of the elite conversation entering 2019.

He has since quieted the concerns around that year, but it’s fair to wonder what caused his drop in production. He was competing with Weber – a talent good enough to make it to the NFL, but a player who wasn’t good enough to be drafted before the seventh round.

There were rumors that he was dealing with a lingering injury throughout the season, which would explain his drop in efficiency. Yards per carry is far from a perfect statistic and should not be viewed as an absolute, but to drop from 7.2 to 4.6 before rebounding to 6.7 year-over-year is an oddity with no clear explanation.

18.) Recruiting profile – Dobbins was a top-50 recruit coming out of La Grange High School in Texas. Per 247Sports’s composite rank, he was the second best all purpose back in the country, the 46th overall player in his class, and the sixth best in the state of Texas. He received 25 offers, including many from top programs in the nation, but he visited just one school – Ohio State – and committed before he even made that visit.

19.) Ohio State history – Per Ohio State’s website, in 2017 Dobbins became just the sixth true freshman to start a season opener for Ohio State at any position. The others: RG Michael Jordan (2016), RB Maurice Clarett (2002), LB Andy Katzenmoyer (1996), Hall of Fame LT Orlando Pace (1994) and QB Art Schlichter (1978).

20.) Athletic phenom? – He doesn’t frequently get named among the most athletic running backs in this class, but his SPARQ rating of 146.76 coming out of high school made him the most athletic running back in the country in 2017.

He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.44 seconds, the 20-yard shuttle in 4.09 seconds, posted an absurd 43.1 inch vertical jump and boasted one of the best power throws in the class. I’m not sure he’ll test quite as well at the Combine, but I do expect him to be more explosive than people expect.