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2019 College Market Share Report: Running Backs

Bruce Matson Posted On February 16, 2020
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This year’s draft is delivering a few stud prospects. We are going to see a lot of value at the running back position throughout 2020 rookie drafts. Even with a draft class stacked with backfield talent, the college game is still going to have plenty for us to be excited about over the next couple of years.

Market share is a metric that displays a player’s ownership of his team’s offensive production. It typically reflects the overall value of a player to his team’s offensive game plan. I also talk about dominator rating a lot. It reveals ownership rate for a player by figuring in both yards and touchdowns scored. Both metrics are very important when analyzing a player’s production.

For the report, I sorted through all players who rushed for 500 yards or more last year. I then sorted through the data and separated the players by their class. This report is good for both devy and rookie drafts. It gives a good depiction of what the landscape looks like for the running back position in college football.

Here are the reports from the previous four years:

Stats courtesy of NCAA

SENIORS

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Ke’Shawn Vaughn, VANDERBILT

Vaughn finished his career with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons at Vanderbilt. He was a major contributor to his team’s offensive production, owning a 36.14 percent market share of Vanderbilt’s 2019 offensive production. His 28 receptions for 270 yards and a touchdown last season enhanced his overall production. He made the most of his opportunities, averaging 3.73 yards after contact. His most memorable performance came during his junior season when he rushed for 243 yards and two touchdowns against Baylor in the Texas Bowl.

He’s one of the most explosive running backs in this year’s draft. Vaughn quickly accelerates through the hole to gain extra yardage. Once he hits the open field, he’s a threat to break off a big gain. His burst allows him to drop solid blows on defenders at the point of contact. It was very encouraging that he was able to produce behind a below-average offensive line.

Zach Moss, UTAH

Moss has been the between the tackles grinder for the Utes for quite some time, hitting the 1,000-yard mark in each of his last three seasons. Considered one of the top running backs going into his senior season, he didn’t disappoint, posting a 30.76 percent dominator rating off of 1,804 yards from scrimmage and 17 total touchdowns. He also produced eight games with 100 yards or more last season.

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He is a one-cut downhill runner with excellent vision and can make things happen in the open field. Moss is also tough at the point of contact. His jump cut allows him to weave through traffic at the line of scrimmage. He is very efficient with the football, averaging at least six yards per carry in each of his last two seasons.

Benny LeMay, CHARLOTTE

LeMay is a small school prospect who, given the opportunity, could pop at the NFL level. He’s a very creative runner who can stack moves on top of moves to slip by defenders. With 524 receiving yards in the last two seasons, he proved to be a valuable asset in the passing game for Charlotte. His 25.29 percent dominator rating places at the 55th percentile of running back prospects.

Joshua Kelley, UCLA

The former UCLA Bruin has the frame to carry the load for an NFL team. He has good vision and his burst shows on tape. He’s a one-cut runner who has good agility in the open field. Kelley posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons at UCLA. During those two seasons, he only coughed the ball up twice on 454 carries, which is astounding considering he’s a physical back who isn’t going to shy away from slamming into a defender. His 27.87 percent dominator rating is a testament to how valuable he was to the offense.

JUNIORS

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Jonathan Taylor, WISCONSIN

Taylor finished his career with 968 touches and 6,581 all-purpose yards. He finished his career at Wisconsin as one of the greatest running backs to ever grace the college football field. After finishing his career sixth all-time in rushing, he looks to hit the NFL stage as one of the top prospects in the 2020 NFL Draft.

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There were a lot of questions surrounding Taylor’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield heading into his junior season. He provided the answers we needed to be able to move forward with our evaluations by catching 26 passes for 252 yards and five touchdowns. His production in the passing game helped fuel his 41.80 percent dominator rating.

When we compare this year’s group of running back prospects, Taylor might be the best pure natural runner. His approach to the line of scrimmage is very efficient. Time seems to slow down for him because he wastes none of it finding the running lane. Once he makes his decision, his burst allows him to break into the second level of the defense. His long speed them allows him to pull away. Taylor is dangerous at all phases and could easily finish as a top ten running back in fantasy next year.

AJ Dillon, BOSTON COLLEGE

Throughout his entire career, Dillion has been a rolling ball of knives carving up the ACC. He initially broke out as a freshman with 1,589 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. He had another productive season this year, owning a 33.70 percent market share of his team’s offensive production and a 32.81 percent dominator rating. It’s fair to be skeptical about his receiving production over the course of his career, but he did manage to catch 13 passes for 195 yards and one touchdown this season.

Dillon is a massive 250-pound back who runs downhill with bad intentions. Once he gets going, he’s almost impossible to tackle. He has good agility for his size and does a good job of maneuvering through traffic. Of course, his lack of long speed prevents him from busting long gains, but he’s a bruiser who can get you more than what’s blocked. Dillon is an interesting fantasy asset. I think he needs to get drafted into the right situation for him to be successful.

Rakeem Boyd, ARKANSAS

The former “Last Chance U” star is returning to Arkansas for his senior season to build up his resume. Ever since Boyd took over as the team’s bell-cow running back, he’s been mightily successful. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry his last two seasons. Fueled by five performances with over 100 yards rushing, his 31.68 percent market share of the team’s offensive production portends continuing success. Boyd is a player to keep an eye on next year.

JK Dobbins, OHIO STATE

We saw massive improvements in Dobbins’ game this season. He dropped some body fat during the off-season, increasing his speed and explosiveness. The fact that he was able to own a 30.33 percent market share of his team’s offensive production is remarkable. Ohio State has one of the most explosive offenses in college football and he was a key driver to the team’s success.

With his approach to the line of scrimmage, Dobbins displays elite-level vision and patience. He makes decisions quickly, instantly reacting to what’s going on around him. There aren’t many running backs better able to move laterally and chain together athletic shifts in direction and pace. Everything comes full circle when he’s in the open field using the defender’s momentum to dictate his next move. Dobbins is easily a top-tier prospect. He will be one of the first running backs selected in most rookie drafts.

Eno Benjamin, ARIZONA STATE

Benjamin gathered a lot of steam last off-season after rushing for 1,642 yards and 16 touchdowns during his sophomore season. Although we saw a decrease in his overall production in 2019, he supplied an impressive 32.43 percent dominator rating. His market share of the team’s offensive production was fueled by his usage in the passing game where he caught 42 passes for 347 yards and two touchdowns.

He executes excellent contact balance and he’s very aggressive at the point of contact. His vision allows him to read the field and find the hole. He is light on his feet and moves laterally very well. Benjamin can also make things happen in the passing game, catching the ball out of the backfield and churning out yards in the open field.

Kylin Hill, MISSISSIPPI STATE

Hill finished his junior season ranked third in the SEC with 1,350 yards rushing. We are going to see him back at Mississippi State for his senior season. With a 26.66 percent dominator rating, Hill was easily one of the main focal points of the offense.

The 5-foot-11, 215-pound running back is a very slippery runner, falling forward to finish every run. He’s a one-cut runner who doesn’t waste any time when it comes to finding the hole. He’s going to be a very interesting prospect to monitor throughout the season.

Cam Akers, FLORIDA STATE

Pro Football Focus graded Florida State’s offensive line second-worst in the entire nation.

According to Pro Football Outsiders, Florida State’s offensive line ranked 116th in the nation with 2.25 line yards per carry.

That being said, even accounting for the inefficiencies, he still rushed for five yards per carry. Since he was one of the few bright spots for the offense, he had to carry the load on his way to owning a 31.65 percent dominator rating.

When all is said and done, Akers will impress a lot of people with his size-adjusted athleticism. He runs with a lot of pop behind the pads, leading to enormous inertia at the point of contact. Akers folds defenders up like lawn chairs if he hits them at full speed. He executes good balance and lateral movement, but he also has speed aplenty to pull away from the defense.

D’Andre Swift, GEORGIA

Swift is almost the consensus RB1 in this year’s draft. This could change once we figure out landing spots, but right now, for most people, he’s the guy.

Over the course of his three-year career, he caught 73 passes for 666 yards and five touchdowns. He posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. During his freshman season, he was able to flash his talent even with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel hogging the workload.

His skill set translates directly to the NFL game. He’s effective both as a runner and a receiver out of the backfield. Defenses will need to keep him contained because he’s a threat to eat large chunks of yardage if he hits the open field. He has a habit of breaking ankles with his dead leg. A quick slide step is enough for him to scoot past a defender in one-on-one situations.

Najee Harris, ALABAMA

The Alabama star came out of nowhere to become one of the best running backs in the country. He rushed for 282 and three touchdowns in his last two games against Auburn and Michigan. His usage in the passing game led to him owning a 23.01 percent market share of his team’s offensive production.

After an amazing season where he crossed the goal line 20 times, Harris returns to Alabama for his senior season in 2020. He will once again be a focal point of the offense, attempting to finish his career as one of the best running backs to ever play for the Crimson Tide.

At 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds, Harris has more than enough size to compete against NFL competition. He’s a sledgehammer between the tackles, but can also catch the ball out of the backfield and make guys miss in the open field. I believe he’s NFL ready and can step in right now as a feature back for any NFL team.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU

LSU ran the table to win a national title; Edwards-Helaire was an important piece of the puzzle. This was his first season with over 1,000 yards rushing. He proved to be very valuable in the passing game, too, catching 55 passes for 453 yards and one touchdown. He owned a 21.91 percent share of the Tigers’ offensive production – a larger achievement than it sounds since LSU led the nation with 8,527 total yards.

He’s a very smooth runner. He has a compact frame that allows him to absorb contact. He’s a natural receiver out of the backfield and his sweet feet make him very slippery in the open field. No back in college football increased their draft stock more than Edwards-Helaire this season.

He went from an ancillary prospect, in jeopardy of losing his starting job to an incoming freshman, to one of the best running backs in the country. He has the potential to make a major impact in fantasy in the next couple of years.

Salvon Ahmed, WASHINGTON

Ahmed declared for the 2020 NFL Draft and is projected as a day three pick.

With Myles Gaskin out of the picture, Ahmed got the chance to be the team’s lead back, rushing for 1,020 yards and 11 touchdowns. He had 100-yard games against Cal, USC, Oregon and Oregon State. He currently ranks 13th in DLF’s rookie running back rankings.

SOPHOMORES

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Chuba Hubbard, OKLAHOMA ST.

Everyone was excited to draft Hubbard in the first round of their rookie drafts this year . . . until he decided to return at Oklahoma State. He had a historic 2019 season, rushing for 2,094 yards and 21 touchdowns. He’ll be one of the top running backs in college football this fall.

Hubbard is an outright speedster , capable of scoring from anywhere and everywhere on the football field. He packs more than enough punch and burst to explode through the hole into the second level of the defense. He’s very electric, profiling as a running back who should instantly transition to the NFL game.

CJ Verdell, OREGON

Verdell posted two straight 1,000-yard seasons. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry as the team’s feature back. His rushing production combined with his usage in the passing game contributed to his 23.59 percent dominator rating.

He runs with excellent contact balance and he’s very compact which allows him to run through arm tackles and bounce off defenders.

He sees the field very well. When he’s running the ball, his long speed makes him very dangerous in the open field.

Max Borghi, WASHINGTON STATE

Borghi is doing some incredible things. He’s a multifaceted runner who can both run between the tackles and excel at catching the ball out of the backfield. He led all running backs with 86 receptions last year, taking ownership of a 10.51 percent share of the Cougars’ passing production. He was also very efficient with the ball in his hands, averaging 6.4 yards per carry.

He’s a very smooth running back with excellent vision, routinely making defenders miss in the open field.

Borghi is cerebral, too, reading the field with aplomb as he approaches the line of scrimmage.

He’s also a very good receiver out of the backfield, and should easily transition to a functional fantasy asset once he hits the NFL stage.

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Kenny Gainwell, MEMPHIS

Gainwell led all running backs with 610 receiving yards, equating to a 14.6 percent market share of his team’s passing production. As a runner, he rushed for 1,459 yards and 13 touchdowns. He has plenty of speed to burn and runs with a lot of wiggle. He’s going to be a fun prospect to watch over the next couple of years.

Elijah Collins, MICHIGAN STATE

The redshirt freshman quietly had a productive season, rushing for 988 yards and five touchdowns. He is a bigger running back who runs with a lot of power. Collins’ performance this year got him selected for third-team All-Big Ten honors. He’s going to be the team’s workhorse for quite some time.

Isaiah Spiller, TEXAS A&M

Spiller looks like the next big thing. He already has the size of a three-down back. His explosiveness helps get to and through the hole and lets him pack a punch at the point of contact. He was also used in the passing game where he caught 29 passes for 203 yards.

Breece Hall, IOWA STATE

Hall didn’t look back once he got the opportunity to be Iowa State’s starting running back. He produced 100-yard rushing performances against West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Texas. He also caught 23 passes for 52 yards and one touchdown. He has a lot of potential and has a future NFL prospect written all over him.

Jerrion Ealy, OLE MISS

Ealy is a five-star prospect who came into his freshman season with lofty expectations. He flew under the radar during most of the year. He did rush for 722 yards and six touchdowns. His best game came against LSU where he rushed for 141 yards.

Zach Charbonnet, MICHIGAN

Charbonnet is another highly touted five-star recruit. He was the team’s between-the-tackles grinder last year. With 11 rushing touchdowns, he broke the Wolverine’s rushing touchdown record for a freshman. He’s a player that should take a step forward in his development over the next couple of years. A very good prospect, he’s definitely a player to monitor for both devy and dynasty leagues.

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