2020 Dynasty Capsule: Los Angeles Chargers
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
Dynasty owners have been treated to many valuable pieces in Los Angeles over the past half-decade. Although they currently sport five players in the top 72, it’s fair to wonder how much the inevitable Philip Rivers departure will impact their value.
Furthermore, Hunter Henry, Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler could be on the move. Depending on the direction ownership wants to go, they may all have new homes next fall.
Finishing the 2019 season with a 5-11 record, the Chargers should be a viable offense to produce fantasy points. At this stage, however, there are more questions than answers. This is an all-encompassing breakdown of their offensive dynasty assets heading into the 2020 off-season.
Quarterback
Philip Rivers (ADP: 233.0, QB33)
Age: 38
Rivers enters his age 38 season and, at this point, the future is very uncertain. Despite posting the second highest number of pass attempts (591) in his career last season, the volume did not translate to fantasy production.
He finished QB17 in overall scoring but dropped outside the top-24 (QB27) in fantasy points per game. With free agency looming, the Chargers have moved on from Rivers and dynasty owners must now hope for a soft-landing spot that can extend his superflex value for another season.
Checking in as the current QB33 in January ADP, the value Rivers brings is likely more bankable on your roster as a spot starter than as a trade chip. Given the non-zero chance he retires, a new team and the undeniable fact that he is a declining performer in fantasy lineups, I’m willing to hit the reboot button on Rivers for whatever you can get.
Any quarterback in the upcoming class with round-two draft capital or better is in play. Moving Rivers in a deal for another volatile quarterback (Jameis Winston and Mitchell Trubisky come to mind) is an avenue I’m certainly looking to explore. It has been a great run, but the time to move on in dynasty is here.
Tyrod Taylor (ADP: N/A)
Age: 30
Flashback eighteen months and Taylor truthers were excited about the potential of an upcoming starting gig with the Cleveland Browns. Despite drafting Baker Mayfield with the first pick in the 2018 Draft, Taylor was poised to get a legitimate shot at starting in Cleveland and converting that into a long-term job elsewhere. Unfortunately, the run as the Browns starter was short-lived. Taylor moved on from the Browns, signing a two-year deal with the Chargers prior to the 2019 season.
He finds himself in a similar situation right now with a short window as the starter in Los Angeles. The Chargers can go in many different directions. There are likely few who truly believe Taylor opens the 2020 season under center, but stranger things have happened. I’m not opposed to selling Taylor with any hype of a possible job as it’s clear that he’s not a long-term option.
Easton Stick (ADP: N/A)
Age: 24
Stick was selected in the fifth round of the 2019 draft. Despite not taking a snap in his first campaign, he remains an intriguing deep superflex or 2QB league stash. The athletic metrics are very good, the size profile is adequate, and the backup job is likely Stick’s to lock down going forward. With Rivers moving on and the current situation wide-open, dynasty owners in leagues with 28 or more roster spots could do worse with one of their last placeholders.
Running Back
Melvin Gordon (ADP: 36.83, RB13)
Age: 27
The holdout didn’t go as planned for Gordon as he entered his fifth NFL season. After four weeks of Ekeler posting RB2 overall numbers in his stead, he threw in the towel and suited up.
Upon returning, he handled 184 touches to Ekeler’s 126. During that 11-game span, he finished RB14 overall while Ekeler was RB7. It’s not a great look for a pending free agent who is looking for a huge contract to be vastly outperformed by a backfield mate on 58 fewer touches.
The future is up in the air for the former Badger. His market value and new landing spot will speak volumes about how the rest of the league sees his value. Dynasty owners should proceed with caution in buying Gordon, but if I’m picking a side to buy or sell, I’d lean on the buy side right now given his current RB13 price and the weakening 2020 rookie RB class.
I’m willing to move any pick in the draft that is outside of the top five running back and top two wide receiver range, which likely equates to a 1.10 or later in superflex leagues. A premium should be put on trying to acquire him in point per carry formats, where his marginal value production exceeds that of all number two wide receivers. It’s probably a two-year window for Gordon beginning this summer. With a productive 2020 season, he enters prime sell territory next summer.
Austin Ekeler (ADP: 47.67, RB18)
Age: 24
Ekeler was amazing in 2019. Many dynasty owners can attribute his RB4 overall season to winning a title. The 24-year-old managed to post 293.10 PPR points on only 206 touches. As he enters restricted free agency, regression and a possible change of scenery would figure to impact the value narrative, but the numbers say otherwise.
Checking in at RB18 in current ADP, I’m more than comfortable buying Ekeler for a pick that is surely outside the top five running backs and top two wide receivers in the upcoming rookie class.
The time to buy Ekeler is likely before any movement in free agency, but stick with your price. If another owner presents me with an offer that allows me to crack the top ten picks in superflex, I’ll change tunes and sell him. Going forward, expect him to perform as a high-floor passing game option like James White. Depending on his future committee-mate, there’s clearly RB1 upside with Ekeler in the right offense.
Justin Jackson (ADP: 176.50, RB57)
Age: 24
Jackson owners thought they stumbled on a hidden treasure last summer when Gordon announced his intentions to holdout. His ADP spiked all the way up to RB52 in August 2019. Those who invested at that price were severely disappointed.
He handled only 58 touches last year, seeing action in only six games. Despite a guaranteed roster spot with the Chargers in 2020, his spot atop the depth chart is certain to be short-lived regardless of what happens with Gordon or Ekeler in free agency.
I’m willing to add Jackson for free on waivers or acquire him as a free throw-in to a deal, but failing to climb from his 59-touch rookie season is not encouraging for his future as a fantasy-relevant RB. I’d hold him through free agency and the draft but he’s an easy sell if there’s a positive news blurb or any belief by another owner that he’s going to have a significant role.
Player measurables provided courtesy of MockDraftable.com.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen (ADP: 29.00, WR16)
Age: 27
Allen enters his age-28 season next fall after posting the WR6 overall finish in 2019. His 261.5 PPR points marks the third straight campaign finishing as a top-12 wide receiver. At WR16 in current ADP, dynasty owners are getting great value with their Allen shares.
The situation at quarterback is going to change in Los Angeles and it’s fair to wonder how this will impact Allen. If the new signal caller is Taylor, his production will likely suffer and his overall value outlook will continue to trend downward.
Regardless of the quarterback situation, Allen should be viewed as a buy on the current market. Depending on when you shop for his services, the price may fluctuate up or down depending on when a new quarterback is named. My best advice is to buy in the next month and hope that the situation lands on its feet rather than the current status quo with Taylor. Allen is a production buy and a potential flip candidate as he approaches the 30-year-old mark in the next two seasons. Given his career average pace of 152 targets per season, though, there isn’t a more reliable value at the wide receiver position in dynasty right now.
Mike Williams (ADP: 71.50, WR34)
Age: 25
Williams has failed to live up to the initial investment as the seventh overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. As he enters his fourth season, many owners are wondering exactly what to do with the former Clemson star. After back-to-back WR40 and WR32 finishes, he’s failed to post a “breakout” season in any of his first three years. At WR34 overall in the latest ADP he is still riding the hype wave from his original draft capital.
Much like his NFL Draft classmate Corey Davis expectations have tempered, but unlike Davis (WR47) the market has not adjusted. Given overall depth at the position, I’d be shopping Williams at his current value, happy to cash out for one of the top five wide receivers in the 2020 class or pivoting to younger options in a similar tier like Mecole Hardman or Curtis Samuel.
Barring a massive TD output like we saw in 2018, the odds that Williams ever matches initial expectations in a game that doesn’t cater to his skill set is dwindling by the day.
Andre Patton (ADP: N/A)
Age: 25
Patton finally cracked the 53-man roster last season after spending two years rotating on and off of the Chargers practice squad. His 506 snaps were fifth among Chargers skill players, but it’s a cautionary tale for those who equate snap share with opportunity. His seventeen targets and only six catches for 11.6 PPR points ranks at the very bottom of fantasy output per opportunity, giving no reason to keep him on a fantasy roster regardless of the depth.
Jason Moore (ADP: N/A)
Age: 24
After entering the NFL as a very old rookie in 2019, Moore was active for ten games, playing 7.1 percent of offensive snaps and seeing just five targets. The production was very modest, but at the same time very impressive for an undrafted free agent who cracked the rotation as a rookie. While he is the longest of long shots, there’s reason enough to keep him on a roster for another year to see how he progresses. He’s worth adding in leagues with 32+ roster spots if you’re seeking a lottery ticket at wideout.
Travis Benjamin (ADP: N/A)
Age: 30
There was a time where Benjamin had some flex appeal in deep dynasty leagues, but his lack of availability combined with Rivers’ lack of deep-ball acumen made him droppable in any dynasty league. The eighth-year pro is likely on a new team in 2020, battling for a roster spot. I’m willing to wait and see if his new situation warrants a “watch list” add, but at this point we’re quite a ways off from him finding a spot on any roster.
Jalen Guyton (ADP: N/A)
Age: 22
If you’re considering using a roster spot on Jason Moore, make sure Guyton is already on a team in your league. The undrafted free agent out of North Texas boasts a very intriguing profile and the college production to keep him on my watch list going forward. He’s likely battling for a roster spot next year in training camp, but he’s worth adding in leagues with 30+ roster spots and seeing what happens in the next six months.
Tyron Johnson (ADP: N/A)
Age: 24
Johnson was a busy man in 2019. He landed with the Chargers after brief stops with the Texans (twice), Bills and Panthers. He’s an undrafted free agent from Oklahoma State who entered the NFL as an older prospect. Despite having a very high recruiting pedigree, the watch list is the closest thing to a roster spot he warrants. Like Moore and Guyton, he has a chance to make the team in 2020, but dynasty owners can wait for that outcome to make any commitment.
Tight End
Hunter Henry (ADP: 71.17, TE7)
Age: 25
Henry enters the off-season as the TE7 overall in dynasty ADP. He’s an unrestricted free agent, set to hit the open market this spring.
After finishing TE9 in total points and TE8 in PPR points per game, many expect huge interest from other teams and a contract that will be difficult for the Chargers to match. Both Tyler Higbee and Darren Waller set the market, and neither are the weapon Henry can be when healthy. The major question will be health as the former Arkansas Razorback has missed 27 games in four NFL seasons, spreading those missed contests over each season in the league.
His ADP and market value have always been tied to fellow 2016 draftee and 2020 free agent Austin Hooper. It will be interesting to see where both land and what they get paid. Health is the only barrier to investing in Henry at his current price, and I do wonder whether his body can hold up long-term. For that reason, I’d prefer Hooper over Henry, but with a weak tight end class in the 2020 NFL Draft, there’s likely a window of movement for veterans at the position in dynasty.
I’d be holding Henry prior to free agency and would consider selling if he finds a favorable landing spot. Target a pivot down for another undervalued tight end like Irv Smith Jr. or David Njoku.
Lance Kendricks (ADP: N/A)
Age: 31
Kendricks hits unrestricted free agency this spring after nine seasons in the NFL. His peak production came in 2016 with the Los Angeles Rams where he finished as the TE23 and netted a career-high 87 targets. He’s failed to reach those numbers over the last three seasons combined, playing only 92 snaps in 2019 behind another career back-up Virgil Green.
There was a time when Kendricks had an outside shot of lucking into fantasy production in a deep tight end premium or 2TE league, but those days are over. He can be dropped at this time in any format and he’s a few ticks below the top of my very deep watch list.
Virgil Green (ADP: N/A)
Age: 31
Very much like Kendricks, dynasty owners likely rostered Green in hopes that his incredible prospect profile would translate into fantasy value. Despite numerous seasons with Henry injuries and being a consistently active backup on game day, Green has played nearly as many games (131) in his career as he has seen targets (143). He’s signed through 2020 with the Chargers and the cap hit is insignificant enough that they probably keep him around. This may keep him on the radar to be held in an extremely deep league if Henry doesn’t re-sign, but I’m using the roster spot elsewhere based on what we know today.
Stephen Anderson (ADP: N/A)
Age: 26
Anderson is not a stranger to deep dynasty breakdown lists as he was once a very popular stash. There’s a good chance you may have had him on a roster or two in the past. After a very promising age-24 sophomore season with the Texans, the former metrics darling fell victim to the “Patriots tight end hype” upon signing in New England following his release from Houston. He resurfaced with the Chargers, seeing action in one game last season.
Anderson is only 26-years old but given his lack of skills outside of being used as a receiver, the likelihood of him of ever seeing the field enough to become a fantasy asset is extremely low. If he’s on a dynasty roster now, he probably shouldn’t be.
Sean Culkin (ADP: N/A)
Age: 26
Culkin was probably that name you received a random notification on when he was added to a dynasty roster in one of your leagues given the attrition at the position for the Chargers in the past few seasons. He should not be considered relevant for fantasy unless a major depth chart change happens, since in eight games of action he received a total of three targets. He makes this breakdown because he is technically under contract for the 2020 season.
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