Twitter Observations: And the Beat Goes On . . .
Perhaps the best thing about dynasty leagues is they never stop. For those die-hard fantasy players, dynasty leagues scratch that itch they have for year-round football. After all, who else but a dynasty player would know that the rookie combine is only two weeks away?
Free agency (a mere five weeks away!) is also upon us with several veterans soon to be on the move. In nearly every case, those veterans’ dynasty values will be directly affected. And while the players below probably won’t be among them, they’ll be impacted by players either coming or going to their respective teams. We check Twitter to see who you might consider moving before it’s too late.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a re-draft slant to it but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
Johnson Sense
Will Diontae Johnson be the highest scoring Steeler again in 2020? pic.twitter.com/hLIDtcYWgp
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) February 9, 2020
I think it’s fair to call the 2019 season an anomaly when it came to the Steelers offense. Obviously, the injury that knocked Ben Roethlisberger out for most of the season had the biggest effect. It led to a horrible season from expected stud receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who barely cleared 500 receiving yards in 12 games before an injury ended his season, too. This paved the way for the stats shown above, including third-round receiver Diontae Johnson leading the team in fantasy points.
Dynasty Impact: There will be plenty of teams that take Johnson’s rookie season at face value and assume it’s a sign of bigger things. But is it?
Sure, there should be a boost for every Steeler with the return of Roethlisberger, but let’s not forget that Juju is still the unquestioned leader of the Pittsburgh receiving corps. He has the rapport with Roethlisberger and will come closer to seeing the 10.4 targets-per-game that he did in 2018 (with Roethlisberger) rather than the 5.75 he saw in 2019 (without Roethlisberger). Even James Washington saw a half-target less last season, going from 2.4 in 2018 to 1.8 in 2019.
With an expected return to normalcy in Pittsburgh in 2020, let others pay a premium for Johnson.
The Road Not Slayton
Darius Slayton was #Good as a Rookie
Vs. Coverages:
(Catch% – Td – Passer Rating)
———————————
Zone: 70% – 2 – 106.9Man: 57.1% – 3- 107.3
Press: 66.7% – 3 – 126.2
———————————-
pic.twitter.com/otB81FQzKf— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) February 9, 2020
There’s no doubt that, much like the Steelers’ rookie star Johnson, Darius Slayton was one of the best values in rookie drafts last season. A relative unknown heading into the season, he ended 2019 leading the Giants in receiving yards (740) and tied with Saquon Barkley for most touchdowns (eight). Currently, he is our 42nd-ranked receiver – and tops among Giants receivers.
Dynasty Impact: Slayton represents another case of a receiver who took advantage of the situation last year but shouldn’t be counted on to even have the opportunity to replicate it.
Yes, he led the Giants in receiving yards while finishing second in targets, but neither of those should happen again with the return of half the Giants offense. Former second-round receiver Sterling Shepard missed six games while former first-round tight end Evan Engram missed eight. On a smaller scale, Barkley and his nearly five targets-per-game also missed three games.
I would move Slayton for his current value this off-season before it’s too late.
Cross Texan
This is how DeAndre Hopkins falls to 16 overall in a dynasty startup draft… pic.twitter.com/L9UMKW0EaZ
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) February 8, 2020
The off-season can be a tricky time for dynasty players. With no games on the horizon to test our respective theories, we’re left to our own devices. Take the dynasty startup above from a fellow DLF writer. Not only was perennial stud DeAndre Hopkins the seventh receiver taken but he was also the 16th player taken overall! Which means whoever did end up with Hopkins already had a stud to pair with him.
I understand dynasty players may be a little concerned after Hopkins recorded his lowest yardage total (1,165) in three seasons but he still totaled over 100 receptions and is only entering his age-28 season in 2020.
Dynasty Impact: If you look at the positive aspect of Hopkins ‘down’ year consider that it was just a down year. Hopkins is still in his prime and still has his Pro Bowl quarterback, Deshaun Watson, throwing him the ball.
As for the players ahead of him in this example, keep in mind that half of the receivers in this draft have unsettled quarterback situations going into 2020. Of greater concern are the running backs taken. Even using our own dynasty rankings, Hopkins has five running backs ahead of him.
For some perspective on the likelihood of those same running backs still being there even two years from now, look at the overall dynasty rankings from 2018. The three running backs immediately following Hopkins then are nowhere to be found in 2020. All of which is to say keep drafting Hopkins in the first round of dynasty startups and don’t look back.
A Joe-Brainer
Most Evaded Tackles in 2019:
1. Joe Mixon: 103
2. Nick Chubb: 96
3. Christian McCaffrey: 87
4. Aaron Jones: 86
5. Dalvin Cook: 86
6. Chris Carson: 85
7. Derrick Henry: 82
8. Josh Jacobs: 81
9. Mark Ingram: 80
10. Ezekiel Elliott: 79 pic.twitter.com/SH6LrUsbKz— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) January 23, 2020
Most of the Bengals offense last year was a dumpster fire. They toggled between Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley at quarterback, lost AJ Green for the entire season and have yet to find a competent tight end that can stay healthy. The exception was Joe Mixon who, despite the terrible team around him, finished the season as an RB1 with over 1,000 yards rushing for the second straight year.
The tweet above illustrates how Mixon was able to perform despite the lack of talent around him. In short, he ran for his life on his way to a successful fantasy season.
Dynasty Impact: Mixon is already one of the top dynasty running backs but is also one of the few that can go higher. Of the six running backs ahead of him in our dynasty startup ADP tool, he’s the second youngest behind only Saquon Barkley. He’s also expected to be the only one to see a massive upgrade at quarterback after the Bengals (presumably) draft Joe Burrow with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft.
As mentioned above, running backs that last are hard to find, but Mixon is one of the few where his current value is not only accurate but could even improve. He’s a definite hold.
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