20/20: Justin Jefferson

Bruce Matson

Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we profile 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2020 by giving you 20 facts you must know.

1.) Player name – Justin Jefferson

2.) College – LSU Tigers

3.) Height/Weight – 6’3’’, 192 lbs

4.) Birthdate – 6/16/1999

5.) Class – Junior

6.) Basic college stats:

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Courtesy of sports-reference.com.

7.) NFL Draft round projection – There’s a good chance that Jefferson will get drafted anywhere between the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the NFL Draft. He should be an easy top-100 pick. Worst case scenario, he falls to the early part of day three.

Jefferson is a solid wide receiver and would be a top-five player at his position in most years. When it’s all said and done, and it’s time for us to make our selections for our rookie drafts, Jefferson will hold enough draft capital to make him a very enticing option.

This year’s draft is stacked with talented wide receivers. Chaos could happen on draft weekend, causing some talented players to fall in the draft that shouldn’t. On the flip side, things get really sticky when we see players get over-drafted. Not all NFL teams know what they are doing, and our infatuations for players might not play into the plans for many NFL teams.

8.) Current NFL comparison – He draws a lot of similarities to Marvin Jones. They are both multifaceted players who can play in the slot and outside. They have a similar body type. Neither wide receiver will blow you away with their athleticism, but they are more than athletic enough to compete at the NFL level. These are two nuanced players who have more than one way to win on the field.

9.) Best possible destination – Speaking of, the depth chart in Detroit would be a favorable landing spot for Jefferson. Jones turns 30 years old this off-season and will be a free agent after the 2020 season. Kenny Golladay will command the majority of the coverage, since he’s the team’s alpha wide receiver. There would be plenty of opportunities for Jefferson to work in the slot where he does his best work.

If he were to land there, Matt Stafford wouldn’t be afraid to look his way. The rookie wide receiver would be running the majority of the underneath routes in an offense that’s not adverse to slinging the football. The Lions could also utilize his ability to stretch the field as well.

10.) Worst possible destination – Cleveland doesn’t rock for Jefferson. Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are going to cannibalize a lot of the passing targets, making it almost impossible for him to see enough work to be a consistent fantasy asset. Landry will command the snaps out of the slot, preventing Jefferson from operating where he plays best. Opportunity is everything. If you can’t see the field, then you can’t score fantasy points. It would be a few years before Jefferson would be able to see meaningful snaps.

Baker Mayfield had an amazing rookie season but the following year didn’t go so well for him. Time will tell if he will make it back to his old form. Will he be willing to target Jefferson when he has Landry and Beckham at his disposal? Jefferson might be on the outside looking in if he plays in this offense.

11.) Best current skill – He becomes a nightmare after the catch. He has the speed to score from anywhere on the field. If he gets a clean release off the line of scrimmage, he’s a threat to blow by the defensive back that’s in front of him.

Like a seasoned pro, he does a really good job of switching up his speed while running his routes. There are times where he will slow down his route to bait the defender and there are other times where he will kick it into top gear to stretch the defense.

12.) Skill that needs to be improved – I have to preface this because I don’t want to send the wrong message about his skill set. Jefferson is a very well-rounded player. There isn’t one skill that pops up as a major red flag.

Nonetheless, releasing from the line of scrimmage while facing press coverage is not one of his strong suits. He doesn’t do well when there are hands on his chest plate. He can easily be rerouted or startled by defender. This led to him seeing the majority of his snaps out of the slot where he doesn’t have to worry as much about facing press coverage.

13.) Rookie draft projections – There’s a lot of talent in this year’s draft. His value in rookie drafts could shoot up into the first round. However, if he falls farther than expected then we could see him get drafted in the back half of the second round in rookie drafts.

He’s a serious candidate to sneak into the first round. Any other year he would be a first-round lock. This year’s draft is saturated with talent which could dilute the value of some promising prospects. On the contrary, we could see some lesser heralded prospects experience a spike in value. No matter what happens, Jefferson is a very talented player who has more than enough potential to turn your dynasty team around.

14.) Projected dynasty value – His short-term dynasty value depends on where he gets drafted. If he sneaks into the early second-round to a good team, then we will see a rise in his value and he will easily be a top-100 pick in startup drafts. Dynasty owners will temper their expectations if he falls to the third round and lands into a less than optimal situation.

Since Jefferson will be just 21 years old during his rookie season, his dynasty value will be age insulated. Even if he doesn’t see the field, he shouldn’t experience a major drop in value. He’s a young prospect and will hold his value for the next couple of years.

15.) Recruiting profile – The odds were stacked against him when he was coming out of high school. He was a three-star recruit who didn’t receive much attention during the recruiting process. Jefferson received offers from LSU, Nichols State, Northwestern, and Tulane. 247Sports had him ranked 308th among all of the wide receivers in his recruiting class.

16.) Market share – After not recording a single reception during his freshman season, Jefferson broke out during his sophomore season at age 19 with a 29.46 percent market share and a 32.38 percent dominator rating. The following year, he surpassed the 1,000-yard threshold and still commanded a 25.56 percent share of LSU’s passing production, even with Ja’Marr Chase dominating the competition.

17.) High school accolades – During his senior season, he caught 44 passes for 956 yards and nine touchdowns. He was an outstanding track and field athlete, too. His personal record in the long jump was 21 feet and 11 inches. He also performed the triple jump, 4×200 relay, and the 4×400 relay.

18.) Family ties – He has two older brothers who likewise played for LSU. Jordan Jefferson played quarterback for the Tigers from 2008-2011 and passed for 4,733 yards and 34 touchdowns during his four-year collegiate career. His other brother, Rickey (not Darryl) Jefferson, played for LSU from 2013-2016 and he had a short stint with the Oakland Raiders and the New Orleans Saints. He is now an unrestricted free agent.

19.) Athletic Profile –

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During the recruiting process, he posted less than optimal athletic testing numbers. It’s safe to say he was a late bloomer. He definitely doesn’t look like a wide receiver who runs a 4.88 40-yard dash. Like most players, he’s more physically developed now compared to where he was coming out of high school.

He is currently listed at 6-foot-2 and 192 pounds, and he has more than enough speed to compete at the NFL level. If anything, his short-area quickness might be suspect. I have no worries about his athleticism. Jefferson might not blow the doors off of Lucas Oil Stadium, but he’s going to do well at the combine.

20.) Awards and accomplishments – He earned second-team All-SEC honors from the Associated Press after his junior season. His 102 receptions in 2019 set a school record and ranks third all-time in SEC history. He had ten games with over 100 yards receiving, and 21 games with five catches or more. He led the team with a 23.21 percent target share, and 37.25 percent of his touches went for 15 yards or more.

bruce matson