Welcome back to the TD Regression Deep Dive series. In this third installment, I cover the next position group: wide receivers. If you missed the first two parts, please take some time to read them as my methodology is consistent except for a couple small modifications.
I broke down this process on Twitter for both running backs and wide receivers (@MikeMeUpP) so this may look familiar, but I will expand on some aspects I wasn’t able to get into on Twitter given the character limitations. Without further ado, let’s dive right in.
Step One: TD Dependency
The table above shows how the top-15 wide receivers scored in 2019 including touchdowns versus excluding touchdowns. The point is to show to what extent each player is dependent on touchdowns, i.e., to identify the players who are most impacted by touchdown regression.