2020 Dynasty Capsule: Kansas City Chiefs
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (ADP: 23.67, QB1)
Age: 24
Mahomes set lofty expectations for himself in his MVP-earning first year at the helm in Kansas City. His 2018 numbers were unprecedented for a quarterback so young, leaving questions concerning regression in dynasty owners’ heads all off-season. Regression indeed came in a few forms, from a high level:
His passing yardage dropped by over 1,000 yards, and he threw just over half as many touchdowns as he did the year before.
However, a closer look shows that key contextual factors caused much of this decline. A dislocated knee effectively knocked him out of three games mid-season; Tyreek Hill missed most of the first five weeks of the season; starting left tackle Eric Fisher missed eight games, causing disruption up front; Kansas City fell from 4th to 14th in rushing DVOA, leading to more stalled drives; Mahomes’ touchdown percentage fell back to Earth (owners should beware of the same happening to Lamar Jackson’s 9.0% TD rate next year).
That said, by my calculations, Mahomes still finished the 2019 season as the QB2 in points per game, in games he finished. The drop in overall production wasn’t too bad.
He dealt with the aforementioned complications quite well.
His sack rate actually dropped, despite Fisher’s absence and Mitch Morse’s departure. The loss of a weapon as dangerous as Hill would cripple most quarterbacks; Mahomes simply made a superstar out of Demarcus Robinson and helped Sammy Watkins turn back the clock with Hill out in September. With the situation now stabilized, we’ve seen the illustrious quarterback return to pull off unbelievable performances during a Super Bowl run.
It seems that we now know what post-regression Mahomes looks like in this Chiefs offense. The question now becomes: What does his production look like with key personnel changes in the future?
As will be discussed at length later on, Mahomes will likely lose his extremely overqualified number three receiver in Watkins and could quite possibly lose a very promising co-number four in Robinson.
Nonetheless, I’m quite comfortable keeping him as my QB1 and 1.01 overall in superflex and 2QB formats heading into 2020. It seems that the dynasty community hasn’t changed its mind either:
We have seen extensive evidence that Mahomes can make magic on his own in cases where his receivers require it. Even then, two fundamental cogs of the offense — Hill and Travis Kelce — are safe. Watkins has a similar hypothetical ceiling in terms of talent, but he’s always been a luxury piece.
Meanwhile, 2019 second-rounder Mecole Hardman will have a year under his belt. He offers a second pair of hands with game-breaking speed.
The Chiefs have shown how strongly they value Mahomes’ receiving options; I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them add another promising receiver in the draft. Altogether, his weapons will look a little different, but the results should very closely resemble what we’ve seen in 2018 and 2019.
Matt Moore (ADP: N/A, QB40)
Age: 35
Moore saw the backup work for Mahomes’ three-game departure this season. He performed reasonably well in the role, but I wouldn’t make a point to acquire him. He isn’t under contract in 2020, and it’s unclear whether he was actually the true second-string quarterback this season.
Chad Henne (ADP: N/A)
Age: 34
Henne was Mahomes’ backup heading into the season, but was placed on injured reserve before the starter’s injury relief opportunity arose. His contract also expires this off-season.
Running Back
Damien Williams (ADP: 96, RB31)
Age: 27
Williams’ 2019 season was disappointing after he came alive following Kareem Hunt’s departure in 2018. He managed just over 700 scrimmage yards with seven touchdowns over 11 games. He’s currently the most developed, dynamic back on the Chiefs roster and he should be back in 2020, but it’s unclear what role he’ll serve. The Chiefs are one of many mock drafters’ favorite landing spots for 2020 rookie running backs.
Darwin Thompson (ADP: 194, RB50)
Age: 23
Certain corners of the dynasty world were very excited for Thompson this off-season, but I wasn’t there. Thompson and Williams offer similar skill sets and win in similar areas of the game. The incumbent usually wins that matchup. I expect Thompson to stick around on the roster, and there’s certainly a scenario in which he gets an opportunity to seize the lead back role. Ultimately, between Williams’ prominence and the possibility of KC adding another back this off-season, I don’t think that outcome is very likely.
LeSean McCoy (ADP: 221.5, RB60)
Age: 31
McCoy had his moments this season, but hasn’t seen more than one snap since week 15. I wouldn’t expect him to be around next season, and I don’t have a great read on his free agency market or his attraction to retirement. At this stage, he’s a good-not-great back who’ll be 32 years old by the start of next season. Some, like Marshawn Lynch, have held some level of staying power. Many others haven’t.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill (ADP: 10.83, WR4)
Age: 26
Hill’s dynasty value was in flux over a turbulent off-season.
He missed most of the first five games to start the season. On an efficiency basis, he saw his numbers fall a bit from an extremely productive 2018. That said, Hill was still a mid-WR1 in most of the games he played. Now locked into a long-term deal, Hill is a very safe bet to continue to produce WR1 seasons — provided he stays healthy and on an NFL roster. The expected rise of fellow tiny speedster Hardman in 2020 will be interesting to watch, stylistically at least. It shouldn’t really threaten Hill’s production, though.
Sammy Watkins (ADP: 161.50, WR46)
Age: 26
Watkins has defied simple narratives for awhile.
It’s reasonable for one to look at a former first rounder on a huge contract and in the Chiefs’ offense, with just 52 receptions for 673 yards and three touchdowns, as quite disappointing. On the other hand, a number-three receiver producing a stat line that, adjusting for injury, annualizes to 64 receptions for 828 yards is incredible.
In the infrequent instances where Watkins gets to show out, he exhibits the same rare talent he’s always flashed. The question remains whether that is a consistently reliable skill set, or whether it comes and goes.
Unfortunately, the presence of Kelce and Hill ahead of him made it impossible to make that distinction in 2018 and 2019.
That question will be even more important this off-season: the Chiefs can save $14 million by cutting Watkins, and will likely do so in order to make space for players like Chris Jones.
Watkins could very well look to secure a leading role for some team in 2020, but it’s unclear whether he’d make the most of it — or if he’d even stay healthy. That said, it’s not a bad deal for a 26-year old outside dynasty’s top 100.
In other words, if you can nab this kind of upside for a later second-round pick, as DLF’s Trade Analyzer suggests you might be able to do, you should think hard about it.
DeMarcus Robinson (ADP: 232.83, WR84)
Age: 25
Robinson showed flashes of excellence with Hill out in September, fell off the map with the burner back, and drew groans this postseason with several frustrating drops.
He will be one of 2020’s most interesting free agents, as teams could reasonably see him as either the standout receiver he looked like when he had a chance early in the year, or the inconsistent supporting guy he’s been the rest of his time. Of course, it only takes one party to talk themselves into Robinson, so he could be a sneaky-good add for dynasty owners before free agency, especially at this price:
Mecole Hardman (ADP: 89.33, WR41)
Age: 21
Hardman’s production proved quite unsteady this season, and understandably so.
The Chiefs play virtually every snap with at least one back and one tight end, leaving Hardman to battle with Robinson for snaps at third receiver, behind Hill and Watkins. If you haven’t made the connection yet, two of those names will likely be gone next season. If nothing else, Hardman should see the field much more. There’s a lot of overlap between Hardman’s and Hill’s games, so one could wonder how much receiving opportunity that actually translates to — especially if the Chiefs were to acquire another receiver this off-season.
However, the Chiefs seemed to have a plan for Hardman after drafting him, and of any coach in football, I’d trust Andy Reid to figure out how to make the most of two extremely gifted receivers. Looking at recent trades using DLF’s Dynasty Trade Finder, it doesn’t look like you’d have to give up much at all to get in on the action:
Byron Pringle (ADP: 239.17, WR92)
Age: 26
Pringle flashed out of nowhere with a 100-yard performance against the Colts this season, but was largely anonymous otherwise. His spot should be safe on the roster with his special teams acumen and Robinson and Watkins presumably departing, but I don’t think he’ll ever provide much value to dynasty owners. The rookie wasn’t particularly dynamic as a whole, and he’s already turned 26 years old.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (ADP: 29.67, TE2)
Age: 30
Firmly established in the conversation for best tight end in the league, Kelce has managed to stay healthy and produce invaluable tight end production for an unprecedented length of time.
His role is completely safe in the Chiefs offense. His contract expires after 2021, but the Chiefs will likely make a point to re-sign him. Dynasty owners may prefer George Kittle based on age, but they really can’t go wrong with Kelce.
Blake Bell (ADP: 239.17)
Age: 28
Bell stepped up as KC’s second tight end after Demetrius Harris’ departure and performed fine in that role. Given his age and past receiving production, he appears to offer quite a low ceiling. In the unlikely instance where Kelce gets hurt, he could see a spike in production, but even then, the next name on the list might be who Andy Reid turns to.
Deon Yelder (ADP: N/A)
Age: 25
Yelder was a Chiefs twitter favorite this preseason, and looks fairly dynamic in the receiving game. He also has an uphill battle to overtake Bell as number two, and even then, the whole Kelce issue comes up after that. In deep dynasty leagues, he may offer promise as a Demetrius Harris type, who could gain value and the opportunity to get a starting role in free agency (possibly as soon as this off-season).
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