Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
Patrick Mahomes (ADP: 28.33, QB1)
Mahomes set lofty expectations for himself in his MVP-earning first year at the helm in Kansas City. His 2018 numbers were unprecedented for a quarterback so young, leaving questions concerning regression in dynasty owners’ heads all off-season. Regression indeed came in a few forms, from a high level:
His passing yardage dropped by over 1,000 yards, and he threw just over half as many touchdowns as he did the year before.
However, a closer look shows that key contextual factors caused much of this decline. A dislocated knee effectively knocked him out of three games mid-season; Tyreek Hill missed most of the first five weeks of the season; starting left tackle Eric Fisher missed eight games, causing disruption up front; Kansas City fell from 4th to 14th in rushing DVOA, leading to more stalled drives; Mahomes’ touchdown percentage fell back to Earth (owners should beware of the same happening to Lamar Jackson’s 9.0% TD rate next year).
That said, by my calculations, Mahomes still finished the 2019 season as the QB2 in points per game, in games he finished. The drop in overall production wasn’t too bad.
He dealt with the aforementioned complications quite well.
His sack rate actually dropped, despite Fisher’s absence and Mitch Morse’s departure. The loss of a weapon as dangerous as Hill would cripple most quarterbacks; Mahomes simply made a superstar out of Demarcus Robinson and helped Sammy Watkins turn back the clock with Hill out in September. With the situation now stabilized, we’ve seen the illustrious quarterback return to pull off unbelievable performances during a Super Bowl run.
It seems that we now know what post-regression Mahomes looks like in this Chiefs offense. The question now becomes: What does his production look like with key personnel changes in the future?