20/20: Tyler Johnson
Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we profile 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2020 by giving you 20 facts you must know.
1.) Player Name – Tyler Johnson
2.) College – Minnesota
3.) Height/Weight – 6’2″, 205 pounds (supposedly)
4.) Birthdate – 8/25/1998 (21 years old)
5.) Class – Senior
6.) Basic college stats – Johnson produced 3,305 receiving yards and 33 touchdowns in 43 games for Minnesota. That’s while one of the most impressive early producers for (maybe) next year’s rookie class Rashod Bateman was already showing out in his first two years. The last player to have production this high in Minnesota (and would then end up in the NFL) was Eric Decker in 2010.
7.) NFL Draft round projection – This class is perceived to have – and actually does have (not always the same thing) – some depth in the receiving group. Something Travis May pointed out recently when he indicated that the number of invites for the position (55) is the highest he’s seen in years:
Number of players invited to the #NFLCombine2020 by position group:
QB 17
RB 30
WR 55 👀👀👀
TE 20
OL 52 👀👀
DL 46 👀
LB 44 👀
CB 35
S 26
ST 12#NFL #NFLDraft2020— Travis May (@FF_TravisM) February 7, 2020
There is a slight trend for depth to push NFL draft values down, not up. Keeping that in mind, the most common NFL draft prediction for Johnson is the second round.
8.) Current NFL comparison – Corey Davis. There, I said it. Comparison is an awkward exercise for someone who is almost entirely statistical in rookie evaluation. But the last time I saw numbers this high, from a lower level team no less, it was Davis. They even have some size comparison.
Having said that (and resisting the urge to defend Davis), the Big Ten is a “better” conference then the MAC where Davis played. What’s more, Johnson had higher levels of production in his last two years. But I’d be lying if I didn’t admit that Davis came to mind. However, Tyler Boyd had similar production, although a very different player, in the ACC. The comparison I like the most is Jordan Matthews. The dominance and role (even size) are very similar.
9.) Best possible destination –He’d pair really well in Oakland with Tyrell Williams.
10.) Worst possible destination – I think he could conflict with Boyd too much. I’d rather he didn’t get paired up with whatever quarterback (we assume) the Bengals are going to draft, unfortunately, because of that.
11.) Best current skill – Traits are difficult to track from college into the NFL, so it’s hard to rank best-to-worst or most important. However, the one I like the best is that he is a very developed player, and that’s not an age joke. No rookie is ready to compete day one in the NFL, but if someone in this class has put together enough refinement and technique to be close, it’s probably Johnson.
12.) Skill that needs to be improved – I don’t know what to say, to be honest. This is what a good player should do in this situation. Some evaluators I trust suggest he’s not as physical as he could be.
13.) Past/current rookie ADP – Rookie ADP: 15th. He is 14th in DLF rookie ranks, as wide receiver nine. If he’s a second round draft pick in the NFL, I think he could end up a mid- to late-first round pick in rookie drafts.
14.) Projected dynasty value – Johnson’s more likely to retain his rookie value into year two then not, because I think he could show a little something in year one. About 31 percent of top-12 rookie wide receivers increase in value into their second year (their first off-season in the NFL). That’s the lowest percentage of any offensive skill position going into year two, however.
15.) Massive market share – He averaged 32 percent of the team’s receiving yards in four years and 39.9 percent of the team’s entire receiving game. That is a lot. His yardage share, for example, is about 13.9 percent higher than the average for the most productive player on each team in the Big Ten Conference over the last five years. His breakout age (the age he was when he produced 20 percent of his teams receiving yards and touchdowns) is 19.
16.) Finished with a bang – in his last game for Minnesota, he had 12 receptions for 204 yards and two touchdowns. It was his highest yardage total in a single game.
17.) Early breakout no matter how you measure it – while the traditional 20 percent dominator rating is the most common threshold for a “breakout” year in college, RotoViz and others have started to use a higher 30 percent threshold to increase the hit rate. Johnson broke out at the same age – 19 – no matter which threshold you like, having a dominator rating of 61.3 percent!
18.) Less productive in his final year – even though he was very productive, accounting for 38.1 percent of his teams receiving production in 2019, it was actually significantly less than the year before, 51.5 percent. This is more of a Bateman stat then a Johnson stat, however. For comparison AJ Brown’s best dominator year was 35.5 percent, so don’t panic.
19.) Why he stayed another year in college – there was a lot of buzz around Johnson last year as a potential draft prospect. He chose to stay in school. It’s doubtful we can determine why from a distance, but when asked, Eric Edholm of Yahoo Sports quoted him as saying he returned because he wanted to improve his routes and technique, before declaring.
20.) Elevated the team – Something I’ve been playing with is seeing if good players have an effect on total team production in college. In Johnson’s first two years Minnesota averaged 1,885 passing yards. In his last two years (with the help of Bateman, to be fair) the team averaged 2,864 passing yards. This is more of an interesting stat then a predictive indicator, but I like knowing it.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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