20/20: Zack Moss

Joseph Nammour

Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we profile 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2020 by giving you 20 facts you must know.

1.) Player Name – Zack Moss

2.) College – Utah

3.) Height/Weight – 5’10”, 222 pounds

4.) Birthdate – 12/15/1997 (22 years old)

5.) Class – Senior

6.) Basic college stats – Moss has been a very productive collegiate running back. He’s eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards and ten touchdowns each of the past three seasons despite a late-season knee injury in 2018, and he has two seasons of 28 receptions or more.

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Statistics via SportsReference

7.) NFL Draft round projection – Mid-to-late Day 2. Moss seems to be thought of highly in NFL circles. He should benefit from some of his counterparts returning to school. I think the third round is his sweet spot, as he doesn’t show up in many of the early mock drafts that have been published by major outlets.

8.) Current NFL comparison – A weird blend of Kareem Hunt and Mark Ingram. There are few holes in Moss’s game, but he’s not a flashy player at all, so he’s a bit underrated in my eyes. Moss isn’t a spectacular athlete. In fact, a lack of long speed is probably his biggest ‘flaw’ – but he does have good agility and terrific contact balance, which is reminiscent of Hunt. Moss has a power element to his game as well, similar to Ingram, and he’s an asset as a pass catcher. Hunt was a third round draft pick, too.

9.) Best possible destination – There are a few intriguing landing spots for running backs this year, but the Kansas City Chiefs have to be near the top of the list, especially for a player that profiles similarly to Hunt. Moss has three-down ability as a capable receiver and willing pass protector, and his power near the goal line in the league’s most potent offense is an exciting prospect.

The Houston Texans would pique my interest as well, but two under-the-radar options that would suit Moss’ skill set are the Atlanta Falcons and the Pittsburgh Steelers. He feels like the perfect Steelers running back and could help replace James Conner when his contract expires after the 2020 season.

10.) Worst possible destination – Any situation with an established NFL starter would be the worst-case scenario, but I anticipate his draft capital being prohibitive of a team opting to invest in a backup at a replaceable position. There are very few teams with no options at running back. Of the teams with some uncertainty at the position, Miami feels like a team I’d prefer to avoid. The New York Jets are another team I would want no part of unles they choose to move on from Le’Veon Bell. Landing in a timeshare in Detroit, Atlanta, or elsewhere would be unfortunate as well.

11.) Best current skill – Contact balance is his best trait, and I’m not sure it’s close. He is very well-rounded, but there are few areas of his game that truly stand out. His balance through contact, though, is borderline elite. He has a thick build, understands where contact is coming from, and powers through tacklers without losing much speed quite.

12.) Skill that needs to be improved – Decision-making ability. Long speed isn’t really something he can improve upon, so I’ll highlight his decision-making ability. As a zone runner, he is generally sound when picking a hole or a lane and bursting through it. Where he can improve is choosing to bounce fewer of his runs outside. He’s not a good enough athlete to break those runs into chunk gains at the next level.

13.) Past/current rookie ADP – We don’t have 2020 rookie ADP yet, but Moss feels like a mid-second round selection at this point in the process. As mentioned before, the fact that he isn’t particularly flashy and plays in the Pac-12 could potentially depress his price more than it should. However, he isn’t a player that will test extremely well like some others in his cohort – DraftScout has his projected 40 time at 4.56 – so it’s unlikely his cost will rise until we see where he lands in the NFL Draft.

14.) Projected dynasty value – He is a total wild card until we see the team he lands on and the draft capital spent on him. I really like Moss, but in a top-heavy class, he’s my RB6 and my 16th rated rookie overall. The DLF staff ranks him as the RB6 as well (with a high of five, low of ten), and the 19th overall rookie (high of 12, low of 38).

Second or third round NFL Draft capital should see him as an early-second round dynasty rookie pick. Assuming a favorable landing spot, he could push for top-30 dynasty running back value. His value is very dependent on a number of variables that have yet to be determined, though.

15.) Metrics – He did little as a freshman, but his other three seasons have all been favorable from a market share and dominator rating perspective. He broke out as a sophomore (19.7 years old), placing him in the 53rd percentile of all running backs since 2009, per Devy Watch.

Per DLF’s new College Market Share App, we see that he has been above the baseline regression target mark in rushing market share metrics (yards and touchdowns) in all seasons since his freshman year, and above the same target in market share of receptions and receiving yards in his sophomore and senior seasons. To continue the comparison I made earlier, I have plotted him against Hunt in the visuals below.

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16.) Family Ties – Zack is the cousin of former NFL wide receivers Sinorice Moss and standout Santana Moss. Sinorice, a former track star, was a second-round pick in 2006 and played six seasons in the NFL, while Santana compiled over 10,000 career receiving yards across a terrific 14-year career. Santana actually owns the University of Miami’s record for career (collegiate) receiving yards, ahead of stars like Reggie Wayne, Michael Irvin, and Andre Johnson.

17.) PFF’s a Fan – In Pro Football Focus’s most recent Top 100 big board update, Moss is listed as their RB1 – yes, ahead of D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor, the only other runners included on the list.

18.) Recruiting Profile – He wasn’t a highly-regarded recruit coming out of Hallandale High School in Florida. Per 247Sports’s composite rank, he was rated the 68th best running back in the country, was just the 1,100th overall player in his class, and the 150th best player in the state of Florida. After committing to Miami, he de-committed upon coaching changes and opted to enroll at Utah instead. He received interest and offers from Miami, Tennessee, Cincinnati, and Appalachian State.

19.) The Injury – He injured his knee in practice during his junior season in 2018. Strangely, he then aggravated it getting into bed, causing him to miss the remainder of the season. There seems to be no confirmation of what this injury actually was. He reportedly had surgery to correct the issue, but he was no worse for the wear and rebounded nicely in 2019. He has been mostly durable throughout his collegiate career, but he has been banged up a number of times, likely due to his propensity to seek out contact even when possible to evade potential tacklers.

20.) Utah’s Record Books – Moss will go down as one of Utah’s most productive players ever. In 2019, he was named an All-American and the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year. He also set all sorts of records. Per the team’s website, he was the first player in Utah history with three 1,000-yard seasons (1,416 in 2019, 1,096 in 2018, 1,173 in 2017), he broke six school records in 2019 (career carries, 712; career rushing yards, 4,167; career 100-yard rushing games, 18; career rushing touchdowns, 38; career all-purpose plays, 778; career total touchdowns, 41) and tied for two more records (career 200-yard rushing games, 2; season rushing touchdowns, 15).