2020 Dynasty Capsule: New York Jets
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
The 7-9 Jets supply one of the least-appealing groups of assets in the NFL. With Adam Gase at the controls, excitement from dynasty owners is non-existent, to say the least. Numerous fantasy-relevant players are destined for new landing spots. We will undoubtedly see some new faces – and new values – coming to New York.
If Le’Veon Bell is traded this spring, we’re probably going to see another running back enter the mix. Robby Anderson is headed to free agency, so a day one or day two wide receiver is almost a sure thing. When Gase is inevitably fired, we have no idea what the future may bring. It’s fair to wonder: will these changes be too late for Sam Darnold?
Quarterback
Sam Darnold (ADP: 135.83, QB12)
Age: 22
Finishing 25th overall in QB PPG, Darnold’s 2019 campaign was one to forget. After a rough start to the season and three games missed due to mononucleosis, Darnold returned in week six, failing to post twenty points or more in a game all the way until week ten. By that time, the Jets were all but eliminated from playoff contention.
Many began to wonder if this was a lost sophomore season for the second-year pro. A string of good matchups gave his owners some usable games right before the fantasy playoffs, but a tough finish disappointed those who got their hopes up.
At QB12, much of Darnold’s price is baked into his age and potential and not his production. I’m looking to sell at his current price if I can acquire a significant piece on top of a “lesser valued” QB like Kirk Cousins or Matthew Stafford. Darnold probably becomes a buy once Gase is ejected and his price bottoms out. Here’s a recent trade from DLF’s Dynasty Trade Finder:
Running Back
Le’Veon Bell (ADP: 50.50, RB19)
Age: 27
Finishing 2019 at RB18 in PPG, many fantasy owners likely felt the disappointment that surrounded the former Steeler all season. Their perception was not unfounded; Bell offered very little upside in 2019. He posted only three games of more than 20 fantasy points. Two of those three games were under 21. The receiving floor did prove to be consistent as Bell ranked 7th in RB targets and 7th in RB receptions.
That said, he enters his age 28 season and rumblings are getting louder that he may be on his way out of town. This could be a good thing for his dynasty value, at least in the short-term, given that he will enter year two of a four-year contract signed with the Jets last off-season.
At his current price of RB19 in dynasty, Bell is a proven producer, a short-term bargain and a buy for teams planning to contend who do not want to pay the massive price required to obtain one of the few top-end, solidified studs in the current position landscape. His risk is purely situational and not ability/durability, like most players in the same tier. The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer has Bell just off the 1.05 in 12-team 1QB leagues:
Ty Montgomery (ADP: N/A)
Age: 27
Montgomery entered the 2019 season as a buzzy handcuff who was specifically brought in and talked up by Gase as a player who would have a role. Nothing could’ve been further from the truth. In hindsight, money talked as the $805,000 deal for one season netted only 45 touches in sixteen games. He hits free agency again and for now is safe being dropped to waiver wires in leagues with up to 28 roster spots.
Bilal Powell (ADP: N/A)
Age: 31
Powell’s fantasy career was left for dead after a devastating neck injury limited him to seven games in 2018 and threatened his future football career. After receiving full medical clearance, he inked a one-year deal with the Jets last summer for slightly more cash than Montgomery. His results, however, proved to be identical. He saw 66 touches in 2019 and did even less with them than Monty. At 31, a once coveted potential breakout can safely be dropped in any dynasty league.
Josh Adams (ADP: N/A)
Age: 23
Adams signed a two-year deal with the Jets in November after spending the first few months of the season on the practice squad. The former UDFA logged 127 touches, contributing as the overall RB61 in 2018. He’s a clear early-down-only back that offers very little in the pass game, but proved that he belongs on an NFL field and is worth a stash in leagues with 30 or more roster spots. He’s a priority deep add in point-per-carry formats.
Kenneth Dixon (ADP: N/A)
Age: 26
One year ago Dixon entered the 2019 off-season with the most positive momentum of his career. He finished 2018 with the highest missed tackle forced per touch of all qualifying running backs and was looking to carve out a major role on one of the league’s best ground offenses. The opportunity never came to fruition as another knee injury led to the Ravens releasing Dixon with an injury settlement.
The Jets signed him after week fifteen, but he didn’t log a touch and will enter free agency looking for another opportunity. This is likely his last chance. Dixon’s future on a roster is entirely health-dependent, bu you could do worse in PPR or point-per-carry formats with more than 30 roster spots.
Wide Receiver
Robby Anderson (ADP: 95.67, WR45)
Age: 26
Anderson checks in as the current WR45 in January ADP and is an unrestricted free agent in 2020. He’s been a very popular speculative add for many teams who are looking for a difference maker in free agency. The legend has only grown as people try to project him as the next post-Adam Gase breakout player after seeing what happened with Kenyan Drake, DeVante Parker, Ryan Tannehill and even Mike Gesicki.
His best season was in 2017 when he scored 200 PPR points, good for a WR18 overall finish. He’s coming off a WR39 finish in 2019. Many suitors are expected to court Anderson and the odds seem slim that the Jets will retain him without a market value plus contract offer. Given the likely positive news for the former Temple Owl over the next couple months, he’s one of my biggest wide receiver buys of the off-season.
Jamison Crowder (ADP: 112.50, WR52)
Age: 26
Crowder ended 2019 as the overall WR26 and logged a career-high 122 targets. He’s locked into the 2020 season with the Jets as the early favorite to lead the team in targets again next season. The current WR52 in January ADP, the sixteen games played last year is the most positive upward trend for the fifth year wideout from Duke.
At his current value, owners could do worse than holding him as a possible weekly option, but buyer beware given his boom or bust tendencies. In 2019 he posted four weeks in the top 12 and two more in the top 36, but the rest of his games he finished outside of WR3 range, including eight games in single digits. If an owner comes calling aggressively to buy your Crowder share, especially after Anderson moves on and before the NFL Draft, I’d encourage you to take the best deal you can get. This is especially true in leagues where you can start less than five total receivers in each week.
Quincy Enunwa (ADP: 237.33, WR105)
Age: 27
Enunwa is technically under contract with the Jets for the 2020 season, but another neck injury has put his future playing career in serious jeopardy. Recent reports have surfaced that he still wants to play and he’s aiming to be ready by the summer. Given his substantial injury history, though, owners would be remiss to put any level of trust in him.
That said, once Anderson moves on and assuming he can get medical clearance, his WR105 standing in January ADP likely puts him on your dynasty waiver wire. In leagues with 30 or more roster spots he’s worth a free add. I’d bump him up as a priority in leagues with fewer positional requirements, more flex spots and deeper starting lineups.
Vyncint Smith (ADP: N/A)
Age: 23
Smith is an intriguing stash in deeper PPR leagues. He has a chance to see a significant boost in opportunity after playing 31.2% of snaps for the Jets in 2019. A former small school prospect with an elite breakout age and above-average metrics, he has a chance to earn a role with the pending departure of Anderson in free agency.
His fantasy contributions next season are likely dependent on the overall volume and efficiency increases in Darnold’s game, but I’m adding Smith in leagues with 30 or more roster spots, more flex spots and/or deeper starting lineups.
Demaryius Thomas (ADP: N/A)
Age: 32
Thomas surprised many last season after his quick return from a late 2018 season Achilles tear. He not only played 11 games but garnered 58 targets and posted 85.3 PPR points. He finished as a top 36 weekly wide receiver three times in 11 tries, but given his age, pending free agency and absolutely zero buzz on the market, Thomas makes for questionable use of a roster spot.
His name cache may garner very minimal added value to a deal, but if you can make that happen it’s 100% the move to make. For comparison purposes, I’d rather roster Enunwa and Smith before Thomas.
Braxton Berrios (ADP: N/A)
Age: 24
Berrios was once a buzzing name to add in deep PPR leagues when he was attached to the Patriots, but two seasons later he’s done nothing to show he’s worthy of a roster spot. He saw the field plenty in 2019, but unfortunately for fantasy owners, most of his snaps were on special teams and not in the passing game. If you’re holding him in any league, take the plunge and hit the drop button regardless of format.
Tight End
Chris Herndon (ADP: 161.17, TE22)
Age: 23
2019 was a lost season for Herndon who started behind the eight ball with a four-game suspension and battled injuries for the rest of the season. This may be a great time to buy him at his current TE22 price. It’s hard to ignore his 113.2 PPR points in his age 22 rookie season.
His age-adjusted production are an encouraging sign for him to bounce back and become a major value. With Ryan Griffin battling a very serious ankle injury that could impact his availability for the summer, the tight end job is Herndon’s for the taking next year. In his absence, the Jets still targeted the position aggressively in the red zone last year. With a weak incoming rookie tight end class, I’m buying him in all formats slightly ahead of his ADP cost.
Ryan Griffin (ADP: 207.33, TE29)
Age: 30
Griffin came out of nowhere last year, posting a career-high five touchdowns and 7.5 PPR points per game. Many owners were surprised when the Jets rewarded him with a contract extension just before Thanksgiving. Rumblings began that he might be the future starter in New York. A serious ankle injury ended Griffin’s season, though. Reports now have surfaced that he faces at least a six-month recovery.
Based on his history and this most recent injury, he’s a clear sell at TE29 in the January ADP. With only seven slots separating Herndon from Griffin, I’m waiting for any positive news or cash-out opportunity. In start-two TE leagues he’s worth holding if you can’t get a usable asset, but otherwise I’m wary that he’s ever going to produce for your fantasy team again.
Trevon Wesco (ADP: N/A)
Age: 24
Wesco is likely hanging out on every single waiver wire outside of very deep TE premium and start-two TE leagues. Despite being on the 53-man roster for all sixteen games in 2019, he was only sparingly active and logged just three targets on the season. He’s a versatile weapon that doubled as a fullback/H-back in college, likely worth watching for any positive talk during the off-season. Gase had very positive comments during camp and during the season about Wesco. Given the typical career track for raw prospect TE’s, I’m mildly intrigued if you find yourself searching for a random player to add.
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 23, 2023
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
