2020 Dynasty Capsule: Chicago Bears

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

QUARTERBACK

Mitchell Trubisky (ADP: 211, QB23)

Age: 25

Before we get to the admittedly dire looking future of the former North Carolina signal caller, let’s take a moment to look back.

A year ago today, the Bears were coming off a promising 12-4 season under new head coach Matt Nagy and a heartbreaking loss in the first round of the playoffs, the infamous Double Doink. Trubisky led a fourth quarter drive that should have resulted in a playoff victory, but then that kick happened.

He had an up and down season, but he showed flashes of real promise. After last season, many thought perhaps he was a good QB to own in superflex or two QB formats. Here’s a look at the rise and fall of his ADP:

Well, that high point back around this time last year is nothing but a fading memory now. His value is in the tank. If you want him you can likely get him.

The off-season talk for the Bears thus far still shows a lot of support for number ten as the starting quarterback, and the team has brought in new offensive blood to try to turn the tide. If you believe in the power of John DeFilippo (though not many do so much anymore), perhaps he can turn Trubs around.

It looks dark for Trubisky, but he has a few things in his favor still. He’s young, he can use his legs, and he’s a bargain basement lottery ticket in most cases now.

I thought it’d be interesting to see what kind of recent trades might have involved him, just to see how his price has fallen. Here are two examples I found in the DLF Trade Finder, filtered for superflex or 2QB leagues:

Youch.

Chase Daniel (ADP: N/A)

Age: 33

Daniel is technically the only other quarterback currently on the Bears’ roster, but I don’t expect that to be the case for long. The 33-year-old journeyman has no value, and may not even be on the roster next season. I expect the Bears to look for a new backup, at the very least.

RUNNING BACK

David Montgomery (ADP: 52, RB20)

Age: 22

Ah, the running back Frankenstein. Montgomery was taken in the third round by the Bears in 2019, after they had parted ways with former starter Jordan Howard.

He was well regarded throughout the draft process, at times considered the best back in the class. He went second overall in our August staff mock draft, which is a decent gauge for his value at the time.

The 2019 season was not as successful as many of his owners had hoped. He was far from a bust, and actually ended the season with over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns – still short of most expectations, but he did show potential.

The book on Montgomery coming into the season was as an all around back who was difficult to take down without blazing long speed. That’s about what we saw on the field, as he showed both a will to get two extra yards every play, and a certain slipperiness through the line. But when he did break free, he could not take it all the way to the house.

I like his potential with the Bears, and if I can get him at a discount this off-season I’m most certainly going to buy. But in my experience, first round rookie picks rarely lose much value, especially if they have a starting job and have shown flashes of value. His ADP movement speaks to just that:

Montgomery currently sits right in the middle of his low and high mark ADP numbers. If you did want to trade for him, here’s an idea from the DLF Trade Analyzer. Perhaps you’re ready to trade a declining asset like Ertz?

Tarik Cohen (ADP: 126, RB38)

Age: 24

While Montgomery had a soft but promising season, Tarik Cohen went almost completely off the rails.

The Human Joystick was a darling of the league during the 2018 campaign, showing an absolutely dynamic playmaking ability, both as a runner and particularly as a receiver out of the backfield. He was the consummate weapon that had to be accounted for by opposing defenses.

Most of that dynamism was just plain missing in 2019. Gone were the big play wheel routes, the money screens, the blazing crossing patterns into big gainers. Perhaps defenses keyed on Cohen more this year, and the element of surprise was gone, it’s hard to say. What we do know is that his yards per reception dropped from 10.2 in 2018 to 5.8 in 2019. For a player that does not get starter’s touches, we need to see the old number return.

Here’s a look at what this disappointing season did to Cohen’s ADP.

Cohen’s numbers fell so much this season that he may be a candidate for positive regression. And as is the case with many Bears players this off-season, if you have an interest in acquiring him you’ll likely get him a lot cheaper than you would have last off-season.

Ryan Nall (ADP: N/A)

Age: 24

The last running back currently on the roster is Nall. He went undrafted out of Oregon State, and has not received much playing time. He’s not really worth looking at in any format.

WIDE RECEIVER

Allen Robinson (ADP: 40, WR20)

Age: 26

Finally, we get to the lone true bright spot on the Bears roster in 2019.

After missing nearly the entire 2017 season with an ACL injury, Robinson had a decent but uninspiring first season with the Bears in 2018. But he did show some signs that he could come all the way back, and he certainly looked the part this season.

He ended the season with 98 catches for 1,147 yards and 7 touchdowns on 154 targets. While he didn’t hit his massive 2015 numbers, he had the most targets and receptions in his career, even though opposing teams knew the ball was going his way.

All that, and Robinson is still in his prime at 26 years old. A little more help around him, and he may have quite a few monster seasons in the tank. He did everything he could for the Bears all season. Here’s a look at his ADP:

He had a significant dip last off-season, and if you were smart enough to jump on that as a buy window you were one happy dynasty owner. If you want to get younger and capitalize on Robinson’s good year, here’s a thought from the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer:

I believe Robinson can still be elite, so I would favor keeping him in most cases, but I can see wanting to get some value while you can.

Anthony Miller (ADP: 103, WR52)

Age: 25

Miller fully took over the number two wide receiver role in 2019.

The second round draft pick out of Memphis is a bit of a victim of high expectations, and he hasn’t yet produced in a way many would have hoped.

He posted a fair stat line this year with 52 receptions on 85 targets for 656 yards and two touchdowns. Fair indeed, but a second round pick the Bears traded capital to acquire needs to do more. (Also, would you have guessed that Miller is only one year younger than Robinson? I didn’t know until now!)

Miller has the talent to succeed, as he’s quick and a strong route runner, but he seems to check out of the game occasionally. There are times he still has issues getting lined up or running the right route, and other times he lets his emotions cause issues.

Here’s a look at the movement in Miller’s ADP.

His ADP rose last off-season, but it fell throughout the year as he continued to disappoint. Like other players on the roster, he showed some flashes, and perhaps he could do something if the rest of the offense picks up the pace in the future. I should also note that Miller is having shoulder surgery again this off-season.

Taylor Gabriel (ADP: 240, WR85)

Age: 28

It’s going to sound like a broken record, but Gabriel was another in the long line of Bears disappointments this season. While he didn’t blow the doors off 2018, he was at least useful from time to time as a WR4 or the occasional DFS start. He missed seven games in 2019, and when on the field wasn’t nearly as noticeable. The wide receiver room was a lot more crowded, and there’s a fair chance that Gabriel becomes a cap casualty for the Bears.

Riley Ridley (ADP: 239, WR96)

Age: 22

There’s not a whole lot to say about Ridley and his rookie season. He only managed six receptions on a whopping seven targets for 69 yards. The stat line is ugly, but with the expected departure of Gabriel and middling performances from the other wideouts, Ridley could find a role in 2020.

He has just ok speed, but he’s a good route runner and has strong hands, we’ll just have to see if he gets a real shot next season.

Javon Wims (ADP: 238)

Age: 25

The Bears had hoped that Wims, with his nice size and decent speed, could have broken out in 2019. He saw quite a few snaps with 439, but that translated into 18 receptions for 186 yards and one one touchdown. He has not shown any real ability to get separation, and his size is nice but has been a non-factor. With the low draft capital, I wouldn’t bank on Wims.

Cordarrelle Patterson (ADP: 234)

Age: 28

Well, the Bears tried to use Patterson in a lot of different ways, it just didn’t translate to much from a fantasy perspective. He had 17 carries and 11 receptions, but his only touchdown came in the return game. Not much to see here, unless your league awards points for the returns.

TIGHT END

Trey Burton (ADP: 240, TE35)

Age: 28

Like many, I had high hopes for Burton after his production in 2018. Nagy used Burton in interesting ways, and I thought another year in the system could help this move tight end break out. I wasn’t alone feeling good about Burton going into this season. Here’s a look at his ADP:

Injuries put a damper on his season, and he didn’t even break 100 yards receiving total in the eight games he played. Hence, his ADP went over a cliff.

The Bears do still need a strong tight end to run their offense, but I’m not sure if Burton is the answer. He has the skill set, but maybe 2018 was the best he had to offer. Watch what happens in free agency and the draft.

Adam Shaheen (ADP: 242, TE47)

Age: 26

Like Burton, Shaheen’s ADP fell off a cliff as well, it was just a year earlier. Shaheen features tantalizing size and athleticism, but he just hasn’t shown he can play football. He was a healthy scratch at times for a Bears team sorely in need of tight end help. Maybe a change of scenery could help, maybe not.

Ben Braunecker, Bradley Sowell, JP Holtz, Jesper Horsted, Eric Saubert

Let’s face it, the Bears’ tight end room is basically a murderers’ row of could-a-beens, and never-weres. You might recognize Saubert’s name, as he was a late, late sleeper for a few folks a couple years back, but the rest of this list is basically not worth considering. Horsted and Saubert I might remember if one of them gets a big opportunity or starts making noise, but I’m not holding my breath.