Every year there are players who the dynasty world is falling head over heels for, and every year they fail to live up to expectations going forward. In a word, they are overrated. It is my joyous task to single out those who fit the bill. I’ll be using DLF's Trade Analyzer values along with my own models and will select the first ten who stand out to me, regardless of position, as well as provide the reasoning behind each selection. Let’s dig in!
10. Tyler Higbee
Joseph Nammour recently wrote a piece discussing the value of Tyler Higbee in dynasty. To summarize, the dynasty community doesn’t really know what to do with him. Some say he broke out late, but age 26 is pretty common for tight end breakouts. He was moderately productive in college, but there are two concerns with him.
The first is athleticism. Running a 4.8 second 40-yard dash at 6’6” and 249 gives Higbee a 95.8 Speed Score which is exactly average. He is a mystery in regards to the rest of his athleticism metrics. Why does this matter? In terms of predicting success, tight end is the position where athleticism correlates most to production. And we don’t know much about his athleticism.
Second, the stud named Gerald Everett is lying in wait. Let’s do a quick Player Profiler comparison. The first screenshot is Higbee and the second is Everett.
You tell me which tight end looks like the future for the Rams. Higbee probably won’t crater into irrelevance, but a low-end TE1 is likely best-case scenario.
Before the season began, James Koutoulas and I had a bet about Amari Cooper. I claimed that Cooper would finish 2019 as a WR1. Despite limping to the finish line, he was able to be a top twelve receiver in the league, and James was gifted with a beautiful Jameis Winston avi.
So, what does this have to do with Gallup? Besides just being a fun story, the whole bet actually stemmed from James’ insistence that Gallup would finish 2019 over Cooper. Now, I didn’t buy it, but Gallup did perform well in 2019. So why sell?
First, I think it’s unlikely that Dallas doesn’t find a way to keep Cooper around. The second is Gallup’s profile. Based on his college production, breakout age, and draft capital his profile looks very similar to group of wide receivers that have limited ceiling and tend to ultimately disappoint.
This group includes names like DeVante Parker, Laquon Treadwell, Dante Pettis, Phillip Dorsett, Donte Moncrief, Curtis Samuel, Mike Williams, and Randall Cobb. Now, I ended that list deliberately with Cobb because I think his career will be similar to Cobb’s. A solid WR2 for another year or two, and then not much else.
Speaking of athleticism mattering, RB comes in second for how much it correlates to production in regards to the offensive skill positions. Speed Score is the most predictive for running back success, so you can imagine that a 5’7” 203 pound running back who ran a 4.66 40-yard dash is not good. In fact, it’s an 86.1 Speed Score which is fifteenth percentile. Ouch. He also has average burst, below average strength, and below average agility.
Now I know that 2019, was the year of "out-of-the-norm" players doing well, but Singletary looks like a smaller and less athletic David Montgomery. He had a good 2019, but players with bad profiles are capable of a good season. Just look at Jordan Howard in 2016. Take a look at some DLF trades involving Singletary. I wish I owned him, so I could trade him.