Gardner Minshew: A Potential Dynasty Gem
It was a season filled with many lows and some highs for the Jaguars, who finished the 2019 season at the bottom of the AFC South for the second straight year. Quarterback Nick Foles was signed to answer the void at the position but had very little to show. Jalen Ramsey was traded to the Rams (though for two first round picks), and executive vice president of football operations Tom Coughlin was fired for multiple instances of disregard for players’ rights in the last two years.
There is, however, some hope, and that comes from sixth-round pick Gardner Minshew out of Washington State. The rookie was expected to offer nothing except a body in the Jaguars’ QB depth chart until Foles suffered a shoulder injury in week one. From there Minshew took over, and surprised many with his play.
Despite his sixth-round status as well as being benched for two games, he had a statistically solid rookie season, throwing for 3,271 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions, and setting numerous franchise rookie passing records in the process.
It was so much of a shock that he actually had a loyal following known as Minshew Mania. The Jaguars went 6-6 in games he started and 0-4 in games he did not. He’s got many wondering if Jacksonville can build around him with his extremely cheap rookie deal (his contract is worth $2.7 million).
That’s not to say he isn’t without his flaws. His decision making accuracy both could use some work, and he doesn’t have one of the more prolific arms in the NFL. But for a day-3 draft pick, he has a surprising amount of talent and has already showed more than a couple of first-round quarterbacks.
Now, in relation to dynasty, is he worth the risk for the 2020 season? Well, with the recent hiring of Jay Gruden as offensive coordinator, I think that only adds to his case as a potential dynasty gem. Let’s go through the tape and determine why I think he’s worth a shot on your dynasty roster.
Not to sound like a broken record, but for a sixth round pick Minshew’s pocket movement is quite impressive. His leg movement is fluid and his processing of pressure isn’t half bad either. Here his left tackle allows pressure up the B-gap. Fortunately, he is able to process the pressure in time and slides to the right of the pocket.
It’s here where he’s able to set his feet (despite the incoming pressure) and fires across his body on target to an open receiver. It’s a nice little play against pressure thanks to his instant movement.
There are times where he feels like a poor man’s Patrick Mahomes. He lacks the high level of arm talent but doesn’t lack the mobility, and this allows him to make more throws across his body than the garden variety quarterback (as shown here).
As far as accuracy goes, Minshew is middle-tier, which sounds like an insult but (again) for a sixth round pick that’s astounding. One area the rookie seemed to excel in accuracy wise was on back shoulder throws, and he showcased impressive touch and placement on plays like this (to Pro Bowler DJ Chark).
But above all, it’s his ability to extend plays and create plays outside of structure that has us excited about the potential he offers not just to the Jaguars, but to fantasy and dynasty owners as well.
Against the Broncos the rookie had two jaw dropping plays outside of the play structure. Here he somehow avoids getting sacked by ducking under the contact, and rolls out of the pocket on this third and long. He keeps his eyes downfield and surveys, finally locating an open receiver for a spectacular play that keeps the drive going.
A little later on the same drive, he offered the finest play of his career thus far on another third and long.
If you’re able to count, that’s three guys Minshew was able to juke in the pocket. I’m impressed with how he’s able to keep his eyes peeled upward in spite of the protection’s foundation completely collapsing, and just like the previous play he’s able to target the open receiver, this time for a touchdown.
It’s plays like this that offer Jaguars fans hope they rarely ever got in the Blake Bortles era. To be honest, it feels like centuries since the last time the franchise had a quarterback engender this much optimism.
With a quarterback that’s able to be creative outside of the pocket, the Jaguars should be all-in on Minshew’s rookie deal, or at least all-in on building around him for the 2020 season. As aforementioned, he’s not perfect (and can leave a clean pocket from time-to-time), but he offers a cheap, promising future provided he can build on his successful rookie season. It’s his play-making skills that potentially make him a dynasty steal.
As for the draft, I recommend waiting until double-digit rounds hit to consider pulling the trigger on Minshew. Selecting him anywhere from rounds 6-9 may be a reach, but if you can get him past that, he could very well offer great value.
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