The 2019 season is complete. You’ve listened to everyone tell you to acquire 2020 picks and you’ve done just that. So you’re holding these valuable picks, now what?
The picks themselves hold more value right now than the actual players who you select with them in a few months. This is one of my favorite times of year, where you get to take advantage of eager drafters and pick seekers, while looking deeper into this draft class for the lesser valued players who have similar skill sets and upsides.
Value is a funny word. When you say someone is overvalued, people automatically think you don’t like that player, or you think they are overrated. This isn’t the case at all for me. When I say someone is overvalued, I’m actually basing that on the definition of the word “value” and the dynasty community’s current perception of the player’s situation, skill set, and potential for fantasy success
A perfect example right now is Joe Burrow. He was almost unknown before this season (undervalued) and now is almost the consensus 1.01 in superflex leagues. That value has not only risen drastically, but has essentially peaked in this pre-draft process. I’m in no way saying he isn’t good, or doesn’t deserve that draft capitol, but he is currently overvalued.
Ok, now that we have that out of the way, I want to dig into four players in this class who are currently being too highly valued (“Over”), and four players at the same positions that could be considered a bargain (“Under”).
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Love this Matt, great work mate.
Only 4 examples here? Article says 5
Thank you for the catch, Craig. I’ve fixed it and take responsibility for the editing error. Great work, Matt!
Good catch, Craig. Hope you enjoyed the content.
Really appreciate the article Matt, some great analysis.
One question about Dobbins v. Akers – you mention that they had similar numbers over their careers. Are you normalizing for their offensive lines? Otherwise I see Dobbins having nearly 1,600 rushing yards more than Akers. Granted this was over 6 additional games, but even on a per game basis Dobbins had nearly 33% more rushing yards and 20% more rushing TDs. He also averaged 6.2 yds/carry vs. Akers 4.9. However, their receiving metrics were pretty similar.
I’m on board with looking past Aker’s performance issues to be taken as the 4th RB in rookie drafts but I think Dobbins has a leg up given his collegiate performance.
I think the article is more about value than their individual performances.
So say if someone was willing to give 1.05 + 1.06 or 1.06 + 1.07 for 1.01 or 1.02 (where Dobbins would likely go) The value is in the later picks if you like Akers because hes undervalued. At those picks you can have Akers + Lamb or Akers + Higgens/Reagor.
Thank you for the feedback, Bennett. You are right about the numbers, and maybe similar wasn’t the correct word. This definitely wasn’t a Akers vs. Dobbins article though. I really actually like both players a lot. I just liked Dobbins a whole lot more last season when I was getting him cheap compared to where it is now. Akers, at where he will be draft, is the better value for me right now.