2020 Dynasty Capsule: Green Bay Packers

Michael Liu

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 102.5, QB9)

Age: 36

Could it be that we’ve seen the end of an era for Rodgers? His ADP has been steadily declining for quite some time which is justified given his recent performance. If anything, his ADP hasn’t fallen far enough as he’s riding on name value alone to a top eight ranking.
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Rodgers has been more boom-bust than people are willing to admit. Remember how much hate Jared Goff got this season? Well, Rodgers was worse. The table below shows the weekly positional scoring breakdown for Rodgers versus Goff. Not only did Rodgers have less top ten finishes, he lost you the week more frequently by finishing worse than QB20 half the time.

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Gone are the days of Rodgers carrying mediocre wide receivers to top-24 finishes. The Packers need to add more talent to make Rodgers viable again. Given his age and the Packers’ track record in the draft, I’d advise selling him at his current price tag to any truthers who are still out there.

Running Back

Aaron Jones (ADP: 20.5, RB11)

Age: 25

Despite finishing as the RB2 in 2019, Jones continues to be disrespected by experts and the masses alike coming in at a low-end RB1 based on January 2020 ADP. He finished with over 1,500 yards from scrimmage, nearly 50 catches and 19 touchdowns. He was a bit more boom-bust, but the ceiling he offered was unmatched by most.

Regression seems to be the buzzword that everyone leans on when it comes to Jones and I get why that’s the go-to. He definitely overachieved in the touchdown department this year, but as I’ve covered at length in my TD Regression Deep Dive, the impending doom might be a bit overstated.

Jones is still an elite fantasy asset who should easily be worth his low-end RB1 price tag. There’s always the risk that the Packers draft another running back but I don’t see them investing early capital into the position given their desperate needs elsewhere.

Jamaal Williams (ADP: 135.5, RB46)

Age: 24

If you’re a Jones truther like me, then there’s nothing more tilting than watching Williams take crucial snaps and targets away from him. Yet this is the reality we all endured for the last two years. Even though fantasy players recognized the talent gap as reflected in their diverging ADPs, it seemed like Jones would never be able to escape the ghosts of coaches past.

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Thankfully, Matt LaFleur ushered in a new era that made Jones the focal point of the offense and boy was he rewarded. Don’t get me wrong, we still endure the occasional vulture by Williams but hopefully, we’re one step closer to true freedom.

I will say, Williams surprised me a bit this season as he looked better than the typical low impact trodder of years past. It still pains me to see him get meaningful targets over Jones but at least he’s more productive than before. At his current RB46 price tag, he is worth the flier as a potential high value handcuff. Jones has struggled with some injuries in the past. When he misses time, Williams is weekly RB2.

As an added bonus, he is one of the most likeable players in the league. He won me over when he did an interview wearing an exiled forehead protector from the Hidden Leaf. Only the true nerds will get that one.

Dexter Williams (ADP: 233.5, RB79)

Age: 23

The former Notre Dame running back saw limited action in his first year as a pro. I wasn’t really high on him as a prospect to begin with, so his low sixth round draft capital completely killed him for me. He possesses above average burst and agility but at this point, he’s nothing more than a second string handcuff in a crowded backfield.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams (ADP: 10.33, WR3)

Age: 27

In his sixth year as a pro, Adams failed to break the 1,000 receiving mark by finishing the seasons with 997 yards. However, unlike his down year in 2016 when he finished with the exact same yardage, he only played 12 games in 2019 due to injury in week four against the Eagles. For those of you who remember, he was unstoppable that game as he caught 10 of 15 targets for 180 yards before exiting the game.

He finished as the WR24 in PPR scoring but was the WR5 on a points per game basis. Make no mistake, he is still one of the premiere wide receivers in the league and my current dynasty WR3. Even with Rodgers’ decline, Adams is elite. He seems to be the only one that Rodgers can depend on. It doesn’t seem like he can be acquired at any kind of discount given current ADP, but I think it’s still worth it to throw a couple feelers out in your leagues in case the owner is feeling nervous about him coming off a “down year.”

Allen Lazard (ADP: 159.17, WR70)

Age: 24

All off-season, the battle was waged between Marquez-Valdez Scantling and Geronimo Allison truthers. Who would’ve known that it would be Lazard to emerge from the group. Aside from being an undrafted free agent, his profile is quite appealing as seen in his Player Profiler snapshot below. He checks both boxes in terms of breakout age and college dominator while having prototypical size for an alpha wide receiver.

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Lazard played in front of 2019 pre-draft favorite Hakeem Butler at Iowa and showed some of the same flashes from college this season when called upon. I’m hesitant to crown him as the Robin to Adams’ Batman without seeing some more consistency, but if I’m throwing a dart out of this current group it’s for him.

Geronimo Allison (ADP: 232.67, WR100)

Age: 26

Remember when Allison was considered a locked and loaded WR3 with WR2 upside? Yikes. It all started with the collapse of Rodgers. In his prime, he would’ve turned Allison into a borderline WR1. In fact, that’s exactly what he did with mediocre talent James Jones. Unfortunately, we’ve left those times in the rear view which is exactly where you should leave Allison. I expect him to become redundant as the Packers add depth to the position through the draft and free agency. If you can get anything of value for him, fire away now before it’s too late.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ADP: 187.83, WR78)

Age: 25

MVS is a case where everyone got too attached to his athletic profile and ignored that glaring red flags – mainly his 22.9 year old breakout with a sub-50th percentile dominator. In a year where there was an abundance of opportunity, he certainly did not separate himself. If you can recoup any value for him, I would do so immediately. Accordingly to the Trade Analyzer, his current value is best represented by a mid-2020 third which I would take gladly.

Equanimeous St. Brown (ADP: 238)

Age: 23

The older brother of the much more talented Amon-Ra St. Brown spent the entire year on injured reserve, but like Lazard he’s an athletic wide receiver who’s shown some flashes when given opportunity. Having said that, he’s not worth much more than a stash in deeper leagues.

Tight End

Jimmy Graham (ADP: 229.83, TE36)

Age: 33

It comes as no surprise that Graham failed to impress as we’ve known for a while now that he’s fallen off a cliff. He finished as the TE21 which was basically unstartable most weeks. Then again, so were most tight ends.

Graham sent a pretty low key tweet suggesting he may be considering retirement but even if he doesn’t, there’s a decent chance that the Packers part ways with the aging vet in order to save eight million dollars of cap space in 2020. Much like most of the Packers pass-catchers not named Adams, he’s nothing more than a bye week fill in normal leagues, and a potential match-up based flex consideration in tight end premium formats. I’m much more interested in those behind him on the depth chart.

Jace Sternberger (ADP: 188.67, TE24)

Age: 23

Drafted in the third round of the 2019 draft, Sternberger was another pre-season favorite who was often slotted into the second tier of rookie tight ends behind TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant. He was incredibly productive in his final season at Texas A&M with over 800 yards and ten touchdowns. The rookie didn’t see much action this year but may get some next season if the Packers decide to move on from Graham. Tight ends require more patience than nearly every other position, so the time to strike is now. I would put out some feelers to see how cheap he can be acquired from those who are less patient.

Robert Tonyan (ADP: N/A)

Age: 25

For those of you looking deep, Tonyan might be your guy. An undrafted free agent from Indiana State, he was incredibly productive tallying for 600 or more yards in three out of four years. He also has an above average athletic profile per Player Profiler. Special shout out to @101chalk who reminded me about him a couple weeks ago on Twitter. He’s completely free and a great end-of-bench stash in tight end premium formats.

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