Dynasty Value Study: Derrick Henry, RB TEN

Joseph Nammour

In this series, the writers here at Dynasty League Football dive deep into the current dynasty value of a specific player. This can actually be quite a challenge considering player value in a dynasty league can be impacted by everything from weekly production during the season to decisions players make off the field in the spring and summer months.

Luckily for you, we offer a number of valuable tools here at Dynasty League Football to measure a player’s value and we’ll be taking you all through many of them throughout this Dynasty Value Study series. Let’s dig in!

Derrick Henry has been a hotly debated player ever since the Tennessee Titans made him the 45th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. The former Alabama Crimson Tide star was drafted in the early second round and was the second running back selected, behind just Ezekiel Elliott.

Henry has had his detractors since he arrived on campus in Tuscaloosa. People have been quick to dismiss all he’s accomplished and label him as limited or one-dimensional. Recently, the consensus has begun to change.

Henry played behind TJ Yeldon (and Kenyan Drake, at times) for parts of his first two collegiate seasons. Then, his 2015 season saw him explode for over 2200 rushing yards, but he still didn’t perform much as a pass catcher.

His NFL career has followed a similar trajectory. He shared a backfield with DeMarco Murray for his first two seasons before taking over the lead part of a committee with Dion Lewis last season. 2019 was his true breakout, where we saw bold declarations like “running backs do matter!”

Now, Henry is a free agent-to-be, although it is difficult to envision him wearing a different uniform next season. His late-season surge in production has caused his value to spike – or has it? Let’s evaluate where the DLF staff, the dynasty community, and the host of tools on the site are valuing Henry.

DYNASTY RANKINGS

In our top 200 overall dynasty rankings, Henry currently ranks 24th overall, with a high rank of 17 and a low of 32. Henry is ranked between soon-to-be Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs and Detroit Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay.

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In our positional rankings, Henry comes in as the RB8, between Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon and rookie Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders. More interestingly, he has a high rank of RB3 and a low of RB13. I was a bit surprised to see him ranked in the top 10 at the running back position – I have him eighth — but he deserves his spot at this point.

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DYNASTY ADP

In our recently released January dynasty ADP, Henry’s ADP was 17.83, ranking him as the 17th overall player and making him the RB9. This places him between Leonard Fournette and Jacobs at the position, and between wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and Jacobs overall.

This is by far the highest ADP of Henry’s career to date and marks the first time he’s cracked the first two rounds of startup ADP. Prior to this month, he had peaked at 33 in both February and March of 2018. He’s basically always been a highly regarded dynasty asset, but his value never really spiked consistently until this season. It also dipped dramatically (all the way down to 96) in November 2018.

In January, Henry was drafted as early as 8th in one of the six mock drafts held and fell no lower than 28th overall in any of the six. Interestingly enough, this mirrors how Henry seems to be viewed in the community. He has avid fans willing to consider him a top-tier asset, and there are those that still fail to fully buy in.

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TRADE FINDER

Another useful player valuation tool at DLF is the Trade Finder, which pulls trade data from actual dynasty leagues. You can also customize the data based on number of teams, scoring and starting requirements. Each of the following trades are based on typical PPR leagues with just one starting quarterback.

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These trades aren’t as all over the place as I expected. Henry appears in six trades since New Year’s, and has pulled a bit more than a first in return for most of them. One deal appears to be a pick swap, with Henry included with (presumably) a late first for an early first. Sanders and Mecole Hardman is an intriguing return for him, as both of those players look to have upward trajectories.

DYNASTY TRADE ANALYZER

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Another useful player value tool is DLF’s Dynasty Trade Analyzer, which shows that Henry is pulling some serious returns in trades right now. His value aligns closely with wide receiver Odell Beckham, and he looks as if he may also be able to pull multiple firsts as well. The data from actual leagues shown in the Trade Finder above shows that he might not be quite as valuable as the Trade Analyzer indicates, but this is always league-dependent. There’s usually at least one Henry fan in most leagues, so test your market if you’re looking to sell. It also shows you may be able to buy below market value.

TWITTER POLLS

Ryan McDowell often polls his Twitter followers to evaluate how the dynasty community values various players. It is useful when used in conjunction with the tools above, and can be more ‘in-the-moment’ than a tool like ADP.

I decided to go ahead and perform a similar exercise with Henry and the running backs on both sides of him in rankings and ADP to see where my followers were at. I had a feeling the results would be all over the place, and they did not disappoint.

https://twitter.com/jnammour24/status/1219120040525598723

https://twitter.com/jnammour24/status/1219120041838501888

https://twitter.com/jnammour24/status/1219120048524218368

https://twitter.com/jnammour24/status/1219120049845305345

https://twitter.com/jnammour24/status/1219120051133014017

https://twitter.com/jnammour24/status/1219120052521271298

https://twitter.com/jnammour24/status/1219120052521271298

https://twitter.com/jnammour24/status/1219120053762904066

According to my followers – and again, this is a far from perfect evaluation technique – the running backs polled would rank in the following order:

  1. Nick Chubb 83.4%
  2. 2020 1.01 82.5%
  3. Joe Mixon 80.2%
  4. Josh Jacobs 72.9%
  5. Aaron Jones 51.7%
  6. Miles Sanders 50.5%
  7. Derrick Henry
  8. Leonard Fournette 33.3%

These results were shocking to me. I know Henry has his “truthers” and plenty of detractors, but I did not expect him to nearly come in last here. While informal, these polls show that he’s valued closely with Aaron Jones and Miles Sanders, ahead of Fournette, and behind the top nine other backs in ADP. Also, despite being weighted significantly more than the 1.01 in the Trade Analyzer, this poll shows that, like real leagues, he’s not worth close to that in most instances.

The most fascinating thing about these Twitter polls that I threaded together is that, despite a very small sample size of votes on these polls, there is a strong disconnect between both ADP and rankings and where the community as a whole lies on these players.

CONCLUSION

Derrick Henry is an interesting player evaluation at this point. I tend to agree with analytics that production at the running back position is largely replaceable, but Henry is clearly a difference-making talent. How much that matters in real NFL football, I don’t know. However, the Titans just rode him to the AFC Championship Game as the engine of their offense.

Yes, he benefited from one of the most efficient passing offenses in the league after Ryan Tannehill took over, and he came on strongest at the end of the season, as he often does. He’s also a pending free agent. It’s hard to envision Tennessee letting him go after featuring him heavily down the stretch, but there’s a chance he could wear another uniform next season. Would that increase his value or decrease it? He has never been much of a pass catcher, but he’s devastating in space. Teams would be wise to utilize him more in the screen game at the least, and perhaps another team would be more willing to entertain that possibility.

So here we are. Henry’s value is weird, as usual. Despite finally buying into him as an extremely valuable asset, I would absolutely be looking to sell him at this point. He’s 26, has shouldered a huge workload in his career (dating back to high school) and doesn’t really make an impact as a receiver. Could he turn into the next Adrian Peterson and maintain dynasty value for another five-plus years? Sure. Is it likely? Probably not. I think he’ll hold some value for the next couple seasons, but his ADP is inside the top two rounds at this point, and I think it’s time to sell.