2019 IDP Projection Review: NFC South
All through the off-season we work to give DLF readers an edge in their dynasty leagues. That’s useless unless we can prove we’re OK at actually making decent predictions. This series looks back through our final pre-season projections and sees how good or bad they were.
Atlanta Falcons
Both DTs did pretty well against projected numbers. They certainly overperformed in tackle numbers. But Grady Jarrett’s eight sacks was also very impressive. Bear in mind he’d never gone over six beforehand.
The edge players were horrific in NFL terms, and only slightly better here. Takk McKinley came in close for tackles but managed half the sacks. Vic Beasley handily beat his solos target and doubled the sacks.
Deion Jones was one of the bigger disappointments in IDP this year, for most people. Note that he was just four solos away here. His assists were high, and no supernatural accuracy can be claimed, but it was certainly a good projection. De’Vondre Campbell however handily beat his solos by a clear 27, so swings and roundabouts.
None of the corners were especially impressive projections. They were a bit all over the place frankly. And at safety it was a mess too. Keanu Neal again missed most of the year, while Ricardo Allen ended up playing strong safety late in the season with Damontae Kazee at free safety.
Carolina Panthers
Oh, Kawann Short. The big tackle missed almost the whole season and thus was miles out. The other tackles were all relatively close – although Short’s sacks were shared among them. Tackles were only a handful out though and only Gerald McCoy significantly improved on pressures.
On the edge Mario Addison led the way as usual. He was four solos, three assists and three sacks out (with pressures spot on). Not bad. Brian Burns was similarly good. One solo, five assists, two sacks and three pressures out. Bruce Irvin however finished high. His resurgence and heavy workload after a horrific 2018 was unexpected.
The LBs were slightly mixed. Luke Kuechly was just six solos out, and Shaq Thompson one assist. But the other tackle stat for each wasn’t great. Kuechly was also better in coverage stats and worse in pass rushing than expected – perhaps a harbinger of his retirement.
Donte Jackson was very low at corner, another example of good production rarely being steady across seasons at the position. James Bradberry was much better.
Eric Reid goes down as a really bad prediction. Fortunately, most of the fantasy world made the same mistake. He should be sold immediately. He’s not a good player. Tre Boston next to (or behind) him was much better. Just three solos and four assists out.
New Orleans Saints
Saints tackles were an odd bunch. Sheldon Rankins and David Onyemata should have been ranked the other way. As it was, they were both significantly out in tackle and pressure numbers. Weirdly sacks were close for the unit even though pressures were way off.
The two top DEs were weird too. Cameron Jordan managed 16 sacks but was still a disappointment here given he was 12 solos and five assists short. Marcus Davenport in many ways broke out after a disappointing rookie season – he just couldn’t quite get the sacks. He’s really good. Trey Hendrickson somehow has some dynasty value. He’s the clear number three here and is a must-sell.
LB Demario Davis did well to beat his solos target by 12. He also had significantly more pressure than expected. Lots of people will tell you he disappointed. That’s not true. It’s just that his amazing 2017 season sticks in their mind as normal.
Marshon Lattimore came in very close. He was just two solos, two assists and two PDs out. He was heavily targeted this season and is getting by more on reputation than performance. The other corners were far more varied.
Safety Vonn Bell was a good prediction. Just two solos, and eight assists out. His sacks were spot on, his PDs one out and his single INT spot on too.
Free safety Marcus Williams was less so. His solos were a full third short even if he overdelivered on coverage plays.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vita Vea looks OK on first view, but his pressures were actually wildly wrong – 56 for a player like him is pretty incredible. It didn’t show up as sacks, but keep an eye on him next season. Ndamukong Suh and William Gholston were in the right ballpark too. They were a bit short of sacks, but their tackles were very close.
Devin White was nine solos down, Lavonte David 13 up. White was in the ‘good’ box, with David merely OK.
Shaq Barrett was one of the surprises of the season (along with Eric Reid above) and shattered his numbers. He had fully 16 more sacks and 56 more pressures than expected. Carl Nassib was much closer, but the glaring omission is Jason Pierre-Paul. We thought he would miss the whole season. That was wildly wrong.
The corners were good thankfully. Carlton Davis the pick of the bunch. Vernon Hargreaves was rightly moved on of course. He’s been horrific so far in his career.
At safety, Mike Edwards was a bit short and Darian Stewart a long way short. But Jordan Whitehead ended up close.
Thanks for reading.
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