TD Regression Deep Dive Series: Running Backs (Part Two)

Welcome back to the TD Regression Deep Dive series for Running Backs. If you missed Part I, please take some time to check it out at the link below:

TD Regression Deep Dive: Running Backs (Part I)

As a quick summary, these are the steps we’ve gone through so far:

1. TD Dependency: How much of the scoring came from touchdowns and how the players would have finished in PPR scoring without them.
2. TD Distribution: Percentage of touchdowns that were scored from within ten and five yards by player. Lower percentages are viewed as less sticky year over year.
3. Red Zone Efficiency: Percentage touchdown conversion within ten and five yards by player compared to other running backs in the top 15.

Below is a summary of the results from the above.

I will now be digging into some of the hot topic candidates above by benchmarking their 2019 results with what they have achieved in prior seasons in similar situations in addition to some qualitative factors. Why am I comparing the players against themselves versus just league wide averages? There is no better comp for a player than themselves because it is the most relatable situation in terms of team, offense, coaching and role.

Aaron Jones, GB

For whatever reason, people are hesitant to jump on the Jones train despite his elite production as the RB2. I’ve been a truther since he entered the league so watching him ball out this season has been amazing. However, it didn’t take long for the regression enthusiasts to come out with the pitchforks for Jones. If I were to solely base his outlook on the summary above, it may seem like they have a strong case but going a layer deeper, I’m not so sure that’s the case.

As you can see from the table above, Jones is well within his historical averages. He is exceeding expectations within five yards but below for inside ten yards. He is outperforming on receiving touchdowns but the sample size is very small which skews percentages by quite a bit. Could it be that Jones is simply good at scoring touchdowns? I’d argue yes. I’d venture to say that he might even be the best weapon in the red zone in the NFL and the numbers support it.

I’d be remiss to not mention his offensive line which is one of the best units in the NFL, finishing seventh and sixth best in consecutive years per Football Outsiders. They pave the way for Jones inside the red zone.

I’m not saying that Jones won’t regress at all. It’s unlikely that he’ll get 19 touchdowns again but I’d comfortably bet he hits mid-double digits again next year. Definitely not the screaming regression candidate that the general populous is making him out to be.

Recommendation – Hold: I have Jones ranked as my RB10 including incoming rookies but I think he has the highest upside of the running backs in that range. The Dynasty Trade Analyzer has him at more than the 2020 1.01 which may be a bit rich but unless I’m getting a top-two 2020 pick, I’d rather ride the upside that he offers.

Derrick Henry, TEN

At the time of writing this article, Henry just got done stomping both the Patriots and the Ravens out of the playoffs. The NFL rushing leader looks unstoppable coming off an RB5 season in large part aided by his 16 rushing touchdowns.

Contrary to Jones, it’s clear that Henry’s touchdown efficiency is well above expectations compared to his career average. It’s easy to get tied to the legend he is building throughout these playoffs but when looking at this in combination with all the prior data points, the potential regression is hard to ignore.

Recommendation – Sell: Henry is entering his age 27 season so with his stock at an all-time high, I’m looking to sell. Per the Dynasty Trade Analyzer, he is worth more than the 1.01. That’s pretty steep based on my experience and one I would smash immediately. From my recent interactions with folks on Twitter, I think the 1.03 – 1.05 range is a more realistic target.

Todd Gurley, LAR

Gurley’s fall from fantasy grace this season was one of epic proportions. The 2018 consensus 1.01 tumbled in ADP over the course of the last year due to his arthritic knee before settling at his current price of RB16 which isn’t too far off from his season-long finish of RB14. His high-end RB2 performance was buoyed in large part by his 14 touchdowns as he barely crossed the 1,000 yards from scrimmage mark. The situation becomes even more alarming once we dig into his efficiency metrics for the last couple years.

For the purposes of this study, I focused on Sean McVay’s. As you can see, Gurley is converting at above his 2017 to 2018 average during which time the Rams were a top-three offense with one of the best offensive lines in the league. Anyone who’s watched the Rams play this season tell you that is no longer the reality. If anything, I would’ve expected Gurley’s efficiency to drop. The Rams offensive line went from first overall to the 19th overall run-blocking unit in the league. They also have no first round picks for the next two years and a loaded cap situation so improvement to the line seems unlikely.

Recommendation – Sell: His knee issues, reduced workload and general decline of the Rams offense as a whole is very concerning. All of these factors coupled with his abnormally high touchdown efficiency makes him a screaming sell in dynasty for me. The Dynasty Trade Analyzer has him at a 2020 1.05 value and if that’s an offer you can swing, jump on it.

Alvin Kamara, NO

Kamara suffered a high ankle sprain mid-season and missed some games but still finished as the RB9. He was also one of the least touchdown dependent running backs which comes as no surprise given his receiving prowess. However, red zone is an area he struggled with this season.

Not only was Kamara well below the average of his peers, he also drastically underperformed his own career average. We’ve seen him absolutely crush it in the touchdown department before so it’s not a matter of ability. He’s also running behind the best run-blocking unit which we saw in full force towards the end of the season.

Recommendation – Buy: Don’t overthink this one folks. A season removed from injury, all signs point to positive regression for Kamara in 2020 who is still easily a top-five dynasty running back. Buy him at a discount and ride him to the promised land.

Leonard Fournette, JAX

Fournette is the poster child for regression this season as his touchdown conversion rate was obscenely low. It seemed like every single week of the season, every analyst was touting him as a top play because he was bound to get positive regression. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out that way.

Fournette is operating at well below his historical averages so again, it doesn’t feel like an issue with ability. For whatever reason, it just seemed like he was getting stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage all too often.

Although all signs above point to positive regression, I have some major concerns. His offensive line has declined drastically year-over-year from 13th in 2017 to 21st in 2018 to 27th in 2019. As you can see from the above table, the offensive line ranking is directly tied to his decreasing efficiency. I’m not sure him putting his line on blast on Twitter is going to help his cause either. Coupled with the team’s inability to move the ball, there’s a chance his struggles may continue.

Recommendation – Hold: I have Fournette as a hold because of the risks I outlined above as well as the potential for his receiving volume to regress. He was targeted 100 times this season. Although he is capable pass catcher, he’s not a weapon in the receiving game. If the Jaguars add more weapons through free agency or the draft, his receiving work should see a corresponding dip like it did for Ezekiel Elliott, DAL this season.

Nick Chubb, CLE

Chubb turned in an impressive sophomore campaign finishing as the RB7 and was the rushing leader before Henry’s final game. His eight touchdowns is the disappointing part as he should have cleared double digits based on his volume.

As you can see from the above, he grossly underperformed compared to last year. I don’t believe it’s an issue with ability because Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the NFL and he’s been successful in the past. The underperformance is in large part due to the horrendous play calling from Freddie Kitchens who is arguably one of the least qualified head coaches I have ever seen.

Recommendation – Buy: The Browns offensive line improved year over year from 18th in 2018 to 11th which is a good sign for Chubb. With Kitchens gone, I fully expect him to rebound to form and I’m more than willing to buy one of the most talented young running backs in the league at a discount.

Conclusion: There’s much more to understanding regression than just surface level averages. I’m still learning as I go but I hope this provides a starting framework for us all to build upon. This wraps things up for for running backs but stay tuned for the next part of the series for wide receivers.