Twitter Observations: Conference Championships

Michael Moore Posted On January 22, 2020

The Super Bowl may still be two weeks away but the look ahead to the 2020 season is in full force. The last college game was played which meant we finally got a full list of draft-eligible players. There’s also the Senior Bowl this weekend which will provide even more footage of what will eventually be endless hours of rookie tape to digest.

And for some, trading rights have finally opened in their respective dynasty leagues. For those with an itchy trading finger, it’s time to move on from 2019 disappointments and start targeting your 2020 surprises.

A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.

Peak Tarik Value

2019 wasn’t supposed to be like this for Tarik Cohen. He was coming off a top-ten (positional) fantasy season in 2018 while his quarterback, Mitchell Trubisky, was seemingly making a developmental leap. But despite seeing his touches drop by just 22 for the season (less than two-per-game), he dropped in fantasy rankings to a low-end RB24. What happened? The touchdowns were way down from eight to three while his rushing total dropped by more than half from 444 to 213. And despite seeing 13 more targets, his receiving yardage total dropped from 725 to 456. He now enters his age-25 season at a crossroads and on the last year of his rookie contract.

Dynasty Impact: There’s not a lot to be excited about when it comes to Cohen’s prospects for a bounce back. The Bears drafting of David Montgomery last year relegates Cohen to strictly a passing-game option and makes him even more one-dimensional than we thought. The situation reminds me a lot of Dion Lewis and his role after he signed with the Titans. Lewis proved to be a one-trick pony and when the offense chose to ride the better back (Derrick Henry – heard of him?), Lewis was an afterthought. Additionally, it’s hard to support a lot of fantasy scoring to multiple players, let alone running backs, if your quarterback can’t get the offense going. We saw it with Marcus Mariota and the Titans, and we saw it with Mitchell Trubisky. Case in point, the Bears offense generated the fourth-fewest yards and points last season. Cohen’s current dynasty ADP checks in at 42 among running backs and unless something drastic changes in the off-season, shouldn’t move much.

Rage Against the Raheem

Did you know that Raheem Mostert was on the Eagles, Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, Jets and Bears and never got a single carry until he went to his seventh team, the 49ers?

— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) January 20, 2020

There’s always a few feel good stories in the weeks before the Super Bowl, but Raheem Mostert may be the best of them all. The tweet above succinctly describes his NFL career but really think about where Mostert is now. He’s the starting running back on a Super Bowl participant and just became the only player in NFL playoff history (!) with at least 200 yards rushing AND four rushing touchdowns. If you wrote a movie script like this, nobody would believe it. And yet, here we are. Not bad for a player who ran the ball more than 15 times just once this regular season and had exactly one 100-yard rushing game.

Dynasty Impact: While Mostert has been on the hottest of hot streaks, let’s keep some perspective. He’s still, by design, part of a committee in San Francisco. Sure, he out-carried Tevin Coleman 5:1 in the NFC Championship Game but only because Coleman was knocked out of the second half with an arm injury. Lest we forget the week before, Coleman out-carried Mostert nearly 2:1.

Now, is Mostert more likely to be a 49er than Coleman next year? Absolutely since Coleman cost nearly twice as much and the 49ers have several players they need to extend. But there’s still Matt Breida, the 49er running back everyone loved earlier this season who’s just as cheap as Mostert. Mostert, Coleman and Breida are all in RB3-territory when it comes to our Dynasty Startup ADP data. That’s exactly how you should value them if you’re looking to get in on the 49er running back gravy train. Conversely, if you can cash in on one of these three for anything more than that, you should.

Deebo Man

STRONG MAN DEEBO. 💪

📺: #GBvsSF on FOX
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app
Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/jti8uZSrIn pic.twitter.com/W8LSmsDrvB

— NFL (@NFL) January 19, 2020

As a 49er fan, I partly used this tweet just to make sure you all saw Deebo Samuel truck a Packer in the NFC Championship game. But it also created an opportunity to talk about an interesting dynasty case heading into the off-season. Despite being drafted 36th overall, other rookie receivers were regularly taken ahead of him. From AJ Brown to DK Metcalf, there were several other rookie receivers in seemingly better situations. But hindsight is 20/20 and Samuel more than performed like an early second-round pick. He totaled 802 receiving yards (fourth among rookie receivers) on just 57 catches and three scores and threw in another 150 yards rushing and three more scores on the ground. In all, he ended the season as a top-35 fantasy receiver.

Dynasty Impact: Samuel is set to be very productive for the foreseeable future. The lack of pass attempts from Jimmy Garoppolo will limit Samuel’s production but in every offense coach Kyle Shanahan has helmed, he’s had an unquestioned top dog at receiver. Samuel looks to be it after seeing extensive run as a rookie and much more than his teammate and 2018 second-round receiver Dante Pettis. And while it’s possible San Francisco brings back receiver Emmanuel Sanders, Sanders is entering his age-32 season and will be hard pressed to remain relevant much longer. It’s hard to see Samuel’s Dynasty ADP going much higher than the low-end WR2 it is now (as long as Garoppolo is around) but deploying Deebo as a WR2/3 on your dynasty team could work out very well.

Many Sammy Returns

Chiefs are about to go to the Super Bowl with Sammy Watkins and the mega star quarterback they drafted with the Buffalo Bills’ pick

— Matthew Coller (@MatthewColler) January 19, 2020

The tweet mentioned above mentions Patrick Mahomes but, let’s face it, the case for adding Mahomes to your dynasty team is simple. He’s awesome! You should add him.

The case for or against the other player mentioned in the tweet, Sammy Watkins, is much more complicated. His career, both fantasy in in real-life, has been maddening. He averaged 1,000 receiving yards over his first two seasons and flashed potential to be an elite receiver. But injuries and a team-change along the way have produced zero seasons above 700 yards receiving and just 16 touchdowns over his last four seasons combined. And those flashes? They happen in-season too! After a nearly 200-yard receiving game in Week 1 of this season, he had less than 500 yards the rest of the way.

Dynasty Impact: Watkins’ current dynasty ADP is in the WR5 range. He also finished in the same WR5 territory in fantasy scoring this year. Watkins just is what he is. But would I buy low? I would with the strong caveat that he needs to still be a Kansas City Chief next season. He’ll enter his age-27 season, won’t cost much and is still very involved in the Chiefs offense as evidenced by his eight or more targets in half of Chiefs games this season. The days of viewing Watkins as a league winner are over but he could be a great player to have on the end of your dynasty roster.

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Michael Moore

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Michael has played fantasy football for over 20 years when his mom funded his first team in the fourth grade. He’s contributed to various fantasy football publications and most recently spent five years writing for the Fantasy side of things at Pro Football Focus.