2020 Dynasty Capsule: Dallas Cowboys

Bruce Matson

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

The Dallas Cowboys finished the season with an anticlimactic 8-8 record. They had a good chance of making the playoffs, but they squandered it late in the season. Jason Garrett coached his way out of a job, and we are now headed into the Mike McCarthy era.

As frustrating this season was, from a fantasy perspective, there are some bright spots to point out. With that being said, let’s recap Dallas’ 2019 season through a fantasy lens.

QUARTERBACK

Dak Prescott (ADP: 82.67, QB6)

Age: 26

Whenever Jason Garrett wasn’t looking, Kellen Moore would dial up the passing game, allowing Dak Prescott to throw the football. He finished the season sixth in the league with 596 passing attempts which allowed him to pass for over 300 yards in seven of his 16 starts. Prescott was highly accurate throwing the football with a 76.1 adjusted completion rate. After passing for 4,901 passing yards and 30 touchdowns, he finished the season as QB2 with 337.78 fantasy points.

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Prescott’s dynasty is currently at an 82.67 ADP, making him the sixth quarterback off the board in startup drafts. The players usually drafted in this range are Phillip Lindsay, Corey Davis, Mark Ingram, and Curtis Samuel. With him being 26 years old, he has plenty of years ahead of him before we have to worry about him hitting the age apex.

He will be an unrestricted free agent this off-season and will be looking to cash in with a new deal. With the recent signing of Mike McCarthy as the team’s head coach and since he spent a large portion of his career with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, I doubt he will want to start from scratch with a developmental quarterback. Look for the Cowboys to lock up Prescott with a new deal.

Cooper Rush (ADP: N/A)

Age: 26

Rush isn’t a player we are waiting in line to draft in our startups. He’s a decent backup quarterback but nothing more than that. He will be a free agent this off-season. There’s a chance he could find his way back on the Cowboys roster since he isn’t a big-money quarterback prospect. Rush is destined to be an understudy for the duration of his career. He’s a longshot from ever being a rosterable option in dynasty.

RUNNING BACK

Ezekiel Elliott (ADP: 6.00, RB5)

Age: 24

Elliott got paid right before the season. The Cowboys signed him to a six-year, $90 million deal with a potential out in 2023 when his dead cap drops to $6.7 million. He turns 25 years old in July and he still has a few good years left in him.

Outside of the potential off-the-field issues that may occur due to his nature to find his way into trouble in the off-season, Elliott is a relatively safe asset. The offensive line is built for a physical running back to carry the load between the tackles. He has a rapport with Prescott and is obviously a key piece to the franchise since the team signed him to a megadeal last off-season.

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With a 6.00 average draft position, Elliott is still one of the top players to own in dynasty. He’s one of the top coveted running backs since he’s a huge focal point of the Cowboys’ offense. Even though they are getting older, he is running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. As long as he’s healthy and out of trouble, he should see a consistent workload for the foreseeable future.

Tony Pollard (ADP: 129, RB43)

Age: 22

The Dallas Cowboys took Pollard in the fourth round of last year’s draft. It was kind of a surprising pick considering the running back talent that was left on the board when the pick was made. It was controversial because many people thought the Cowboys might have had a chance of selecting him with their next pick in the fifth round. The organization fell in love with him and they wanted to lock him up and make sure he doesn’t slip through their fingers.

We saw flashes of greatness during the preseason, causing a lot of dynasty leaguers to take notice. He demonstrated speed and burst and another gear in the passing game which makes him another weapon the offense can deploy when needed.

Even with Elliott cannibalizing a large portion of the workload, Pollard was able to knock on the door with three double-digit fantasy performances. He is a threat in the passing game and might be able to steal some additional touches sometime in the next couple of years.

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Pollard’s dynasty value is on the rise. He’s a young promising running back prospect who is getting ready to enter the second year of his career. With McCarthy as the new coach, there is going to be some optimism surrounding Pollard’s stock once we hit the off-season. Plus, some of the older running backs will drop in value once the field realizes that some of the veteran running backs are getting ready to hit the age apex. This will naturally cause Pollard to rise a few spots in the rankings. His value is age insulated. He should be able to at least hold his dynasty value for the next year or two, making him a safe investment.

WIDE RECEIVER

Amari Cooper (ADP: 22.17, WR10)

Age: 25

Cooper finished last season as WR10 with 246.50 PPR fantasy points. He caught 79 passes for 1,189 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite playing through injuries the entire year he still led the team with 119 targets and 1,456 air yards. His 2.29 yards per route run suggests that he’s one of the best wide receivers in the league. Statistically, this was his best season and he doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon.

The Cowboys will need to decide on where or not they are going to re-sign him. His contract expires this off-season. He wants to re-sign with the team, but since the Cowboys have to resign Prescott and have already signed Elliott to big money. There’s a chance this might not happen. I look for him to either sign a new deal or get slapped with the franchise tag.

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His dynasty value has been a roller coaster throughout the years. Cooper is usually the eighth wide receiver off the board in startup drafts. He will be 26 years old at the start of the 2020 season and he has a long future in front of him.

Michael Gallup (ADP: 52.83, WR27)

Age: 23

The second-year wide receiver had a quiet breakout season last year, catching 66 passes for 1,107 yards and six touchdowns. Even with Cooper soaking up a large portion of the targets, Gallup still commanded a 21 percent target share and saw 1,376 air yards on the season. Gallup was highly efficient by averaging 2.16 yards per route run but unfortunately, he led the league with 13 drops, equating to a 16.5 percent drop rate. Nonetheless, he has developed into a key part of the Cowboys’ offense.

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Gallup’s fantasy value is on the rise. Right now, he is being drafted somewhere around the fifth round of rookie drafts. Once the field re-calibrates, we might see him receive a slight bump in value during the off-season since he’s a young wide receiver prospect with a lot of promise. He’s still on his rookie deal and is playing on the opposite side of Cooper which will allow him to run routes against softer coverages. He will be on everyone’s radar this off-season

Randall Cobb (ADP: 194.17, WR81)

Age: 29

Cobb surprisingly averaged 10.3 fantasy points per game last year. He posted highly volatile production with two weeks of 20 fantasy points or more along with nine single-digit performances. While playing the third fiddle in the passing game, Cobb owned a 15 percent target share in 2019 while seeing a 10.3 average depth of target. His 69.6 percent catch rate was the highest among all Cowboys receivers with 50 or more targets.

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With him turning 30 years old in August, we are watching Cobb perform in his twilight years. He will be a free agent in 2020 and there’s a chance he won’t be a part of the Cowboys next year. He does have a previous connection with Mike McCarthy from playing in Green Bay but that doesn’t mean we will see him in Cowboys’ uniform. His dynasty value is dependent on where he’s playing. The older he gets, the harder it will be for teams to want to sign him. We are seeing two talented wide receiver classes in 2020 and 2021 which could wash out older veteran players like Cobb.

Devin Smith (ADP: N/A)

Age: 27

Smith caught three passes for 74 yards and one touchdown against the Redskins in week three. For a short stint, it looked like he was going to make a resurgence. With Cooper and Gallup commanding 42 percent of the targets and another 16 percent of the targets going to the running backs, it’s going to be hard for a third wide receiver to maintain week-to-week fantasy production. He is signed with the team through 2020 and will get the chance this off-season to carve out a role as the team’s deep threat.

Tavon Austin (ADP: N/A)

Age: 28

In his last two years as a Dallas Cowboy, Austin saw just 37 targets. He will hit the free-agent market this off-season. The 28-year-old wide receiver will need some luck to fall his way if he wants to ever be fantasy relevant again.

Noah Brown (ADP: N/A)

Age: 24

The former Ohio State Buckeye has been battling injuries throughout his NFL career. With Brown headed into the fourth season of his career with just 17 total targets, it appears that he might not make it out of the training camp still on the Cowboys’ roster.

Lance Lenoir (ADP: N/A)

Age: 24

Lenoir is still under contract with the team. He has never been fantasy-relevant. On top of that, he has been rehabbing a patellar tendon tear which is an injury that is tough to come back from. It’s safe to say that he will be a lifer on the waiver wire in dynasty leagues.

Cedrick Wilson (ADP: N/A)

Age: 24

The Cowboys drafted him in the sixth round of the 2018 draft. He has struggled to put anything together during his career in Dallas, catching just five passes for 46 yards in his career. This year’s training camp will be very important for his longevity in the league. However, unless something dramatic happens, he’s more than likely not going to be a player we are going to try to own in dynasty.

Ventell Bryant (ADP: N/A)

Age: 23

He played some snaps last year for the Cowboys. He even caught a pass for 15 yards. That’s probably going to be the extent of his NFL career.

TIGHT END

Jason Witten (ADP: N/A)

Age: 37

Witten plodded his way to TE1 status, catching the ball 63 times for 529 yards and four touchdowns. He finished the season as TE11 with 139.90 PPR fantasy points. It wasn’t pretty but he was semi-usable throughout the season. His production was derived by his 14 percent target share. Unfortunately, he left a lot of meat on the bone considering he ranked 25th amongst tight ends with 162 yards after the catch, averaging an abysmal 1.95 YAC per target.

We don’t know Witten’s long-term intentions for his career. He turns 38 in May and obviously, he’s past the age threshold for his position. The Cowboys are going through some transitions with their coaching staff which should cause Witten to ponder retirement.

Honestly, it doesn’t really matter what he does, his dynasty value is almost innocuous because, at this stage in his career, he’s just body taking up space on the field. If you own him, you are hoping he’s rolling into the end zone because he’s literally just catching the ball and falling down. The market is dry. No one wants to buy a soon to be 38-year-old tight end who could retire at any moment.

Blake Jarwin (ADP: 221.67, TE32)

Age: 25

The second-year tight end saw an increase in snaps and targets while playing second fiddle to Witten. He saw a seven percent target share on the season while catching 31 passes for 365 yards and three touchdowns.

If there’s a tight end to own in this offense, it would be Jarwin. He’s entering his third season with some promise. In spots, at least from a fantasy perspective, he looked like the best tight end on the team. With Cooper and Gallup commanding a large market share of the targets, there might not be enough volume for a tight end to sustain consistent production, but if Witten retires, Jarwin would be the next man up.

Dalton Schultz (ADP: N/A)

Age: 23

After seeing just two targets in 2019, Schultz isn’t on the radar for many dynasty enthusiasts. He’s a developmental prospect who could see more usage if his development takes a major step forward. The resurfacing of Jason Witten didn’t help matter either. He’s a suboptimal athlete who will need to dial in the nuances of the game in order for him to garner enough target share to be worthwhile in fantasy.

bruce matson