Top Ten Dynasty Risers

Michael Zingone Posted On January 19, 2020

Every year there are players who surprise us. Whether it be the instant success of a first-round rookie pick, the bounce-back sophomore player, or a great player turning into a superstar, dynasty owners see players rise in trade value significantly every season. The 2019 season was no different. Here, we will leverage the DLF Data Analytics tool to explore the top ten dynasty risers in the 2019 season.

Often, analysts will point to a change in ADP or rankings as a mark of a value change. This is a good method of evaluation, but it is just the first step. A simple subtraction of the ending ADP and the beginning ADP is not enough to get a true value change. For example, a player who rose from ADP 170 to ADP 130 absolutely saw a value increase, but it is less impactful of a change than a player going from ADP 60 to ADP 30.

word image 66

The DLF Data Analytics page leverages a player’s ADP and ranking from a previous month and utilizes the DLF Trade Analyzer algorithm to better indicate a player’s true change in value. In the below list, you won’t simply see the players who gained the most ADP spots but rather the players who actually gained the most value. So, without further delay, here is the list of the top ten biggest dynasty risers from August 2019 to January 2020.

Lamar Jackson, QB BAL

With his elite running ability, many were on Jackson as a top quarterback sleeper in 2019. Very few, though, could have expected this big a jump for the second-year quarterback. Jackson blew away the competition at quarterback, averaging over six fantasy points per game higher than the QB2, Deshaun Watson. Jackson has shown a ceiling worthy of being selected highly even in one-quarterback leagues. While he may be unlikely to repeat this historic season, he’s arguably the best dynasty quarterback to have rostered.

DJ Chark, WR JAC

Arguably the biggest surprise of this year, Chark went from a complete afterthought to a top 20 wide receiver in just a short four months. The second-year wide out finished with just over 1,000 receiving yards and eight touchdowns with rookie Gardner Minshew under center for most of the season. In a wide-open depth chart, Chark commanded his spot as the team’s clear WR1. With a December ADP in round three, dynasty leaguers are banking on Chark to keep up this form for 2020 and beyond. He’s 2019’s biggest dynasty riser.

Courtland Sutton, WR DEN

Sutton was that guy who everyone was talking about how no one was talking about this season. The second-year wideout managed to top 1,100 yards in what was truly a breakout season. With a combination of Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, and Drew Lock under center, this feat is even more impressive. Finishing as the WR19 on the season, there’s reason to believe Sutton has yet to reach his ceiling. If Drew Lock takes a step forward next season, Sutton could finish the year as a legitimate fantasy WR1. Dynasty leaguers are valuing him accordingly.

AJ Brown, WR TEN

During the pre-draft process, many pegged Brown as a top receiver in the class. Drafted in the second round to the Titans, Brown slipped on draft boards due to a lackluster landing spot in Tennessee. There were big questions about this offense, and Brown seemed to be pegged in a second-fiddle role behind Corey Davis. Flash forward, five months, and Brown is now a top 12 dynasty wide receiver according to recent ADP and one of the best draft picks of the 2019 rookie draft season. There are still questions about the long-term success of the Titans offense, but Brown cemented himself as a top tier dynasty asset this season.

Chris Godwin, WR TBB

Even after getting arguably the most hype throughout the off-season as a breakout wide receiver, Godwin managed to out-perform expectations in 2019. Finishing as the WR2 in points per game, Godwin showed he is more than capable of being an alpha in this league. With Jameis Winston’s contract situation an unknown, the Buccaneers have some serious question marks heading into 2020. If there’s one thing that both the Bucs and dynasty players can count on though, it’s Chris Godwin being a top ten WR for the foreseeable future. He’s here to stay.

Derrick Henry, RB TEN

The second Tennessee Titan to make the list, Henry led the NFL in rushing in 2019 despite missing a full game. Henry finished 2019 as an RB4 in points per game in PPR leagues this season, and at times he looked unstoppable. Dynasty players still would like to see more receiving usage from the NFL rushing leader, but Henry clearly has top-five upside even without it. Henry is a free agent this offseason and will certainly be towards the top of many dynasty sells list you may come across. If there’s one thing for sure, though, it’s that Derrick Henry was one of the biggest risers in all of dynasty in 2019.

Dalvin Cook, RB MIN

Cook has always had the talent to be a first-round startup pick in dynasty fantasy football. Injuries had largely kept that from being a reality, but in 2019, Cook showed he can stay healthy for (mostly) the whole fantasy season. As a result, the third-year back accounted for over 1,600 total yards and 13 touchdowns en route to finishing as fantasy football’s RB2 in points per game. Cook is a clear difference-maker on the field and should return RB1 numbers for dynasty players in the coming years, barring health. Cook is one of 2019’s biggest dynasty risers.

Terry McLaurin, WR WAS

Despite being a third-round selection to a wide-open Washington depth chart, dynasty leaguers let McLaurin fall down the draft boards in both startup and rookie drafts. McLaurin was – and still is – a polarizing player. He never truly “broke out” in college, and his situation in Washington – while wide open – featured terrible quarterback play. Regardless, McLaurin posted one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory, overcoming all of his team’s shortcomings to finish with over 900 yards and seven touchdowns. Washington is likely to bring in additional receiver help this offseason, but Terry “F1” McLaurin showed he belongs as a quality dynasty player.

Michael Gallup, WR DAL

One of my favorite breakout wide receivers for 2019, Gallup did not disappoint. The second-year receiver managed over 1,000 receiving yards despite missing two games on the season, ultimately finishing 2019 as the WR18 in points per game. Gallup was a consistent part of the Cowboys top-ranked offense, seeing fewer than six targets in just two games. Teammates Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper are currently without contracts, so there are certainly question marks for Gallup and the Cowboys heading into 2020. However, Gallup showed capable of being a dynasty WR2 as he broke out in 2019.

Deebo Samuel, WR SF

Samuel is the third rookie to make the top risers list, and there are certainly more who rose in value throughout the 2019 season. As usually a late first/early second rookie pick, Samuel certainly exceeded expectations in his rookie year. From week ten on, Deebo Samuel finished as the WR14 in fantasy points per game. Dynasty players could consistently count on Samuel as a high-end WR2 over the second half of his rookie campaign. The 49ers may bring in additional talent at WR in the 2020 draft, but Samuel has shown he can play at the NFL level.