Dynasty Value Study: AJ Brown, WR TEN
In this series, the writers here at Dynasty League Football will be diving deep into the current dynasty value of a specific player. This can actually be quite a challenge considering player value in a dynasty league can be impacted by everything from weekly production during the season to decisions players make off the field in the spring and summer months.
Luckily for you, we offer a number of valuable tools here at Dynasty League Football to measure a player’s value and we’ll be taking you all through many of them throughout this Dynasty Value Study series. Let’s dig in!
When the Tennessee Titans selected AJ Brown on day two of the 2019 draft, several things happened.
Corey Davis truthers muttered whispered curses – Brown’s 1,320 receiving yards led the SEC prior to him being drafted. There was little to question about the Mississippi alum’s talent.
The second thing that happened was a little bit of worry. Despite the well-rounded talent, how much success could be expected with Marcus Mariota under center? The Titans had also brought in Adam Humphries through free agency, crowding the receiving core for a low volume quarterback.
Initial reactions were fairly mixed as the landing spot created more questions than anyone had about Brown’s actual talent.
Through the first six weeks of the season, known as the “Darkus Mariota” weeks, Brown had 14 receptions for 273 receiving yards and two touchdowns. When the Titans shelved Mariota, Brown became the immediate beneficiary.
Here are the splits with Mariota in:
Once Ryan Tannehill assumed starting duties, Brown’s performance went up in every measurable.
Courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
The thing to note here not just the finish in those last nine games, but also the 16-game pace if that data was extrapolated.
Brown’s ability to gain yards after the catch, and after contact, were part of his success. The apparent chemistry between him and Tannehill seemed to grow in lockstep. It is also worth mentioning that Brown is one of two receivers (Mike Williams) who finished the season averaging 20-plus yards per reception.
Dynasty Rankings
Brown currently ranks 30th overall on the top 200 dynasty rankings. That puts him right between tight end Travis Kelce and quarterback Lamar Jackson.
As far as positional ranking, Brown is between fellow rookie DK Metcalf and Cooper Kupp, as 15th among his peers.
Dynasty ADP
To end the season, dynasty ADP has Brown at 49.5 overall. That’s an impressive rise from 87.5 way back in September. It also represents a 12.75-spot rise from November’s ADP and an career-high.
Trade Finder
Assessing value in dynasty format can largely be associated with a simple question: What can I get for him? The trade finder tool can help with this exact query. By analyzing recent trades, managers can get a good look at what types of trades are being accepted that involve specific players. Here is a look at some recent trades involving Brown.
These recent completed trades show a range of outcomes that involve Brown. In one, we see two first-round picks given up to acquire him, where in others he is part of a package deal. The one that sticks out here is the large package deal that gave up Brown, some other players, and draft picks to acquire Christian McCaffrey, Derrius Guice, and Calvin Ridley. This gives a relative idea of what it takes to acquire Brown. It is safe to say that his value is currently at its highest so far.
Dynasty Trade Analyzer
The dynasty trade analyzer allows us to find price points for trades for specific targets and picks. In the screenshot below, Brown’s value places a hefty 1.01 price tag plus a third-round pick to get close to equalizing value.
Twitter Polls
Never underestimate the usefulness of turning to Twitter when it comes to gathering value data. A simple poll can yield some interesting results. Here, I paired Brown with a couple of other receivers based on recency, age, and some ADP rankings.
Dynasty Choice: Who would you rather draft in a startup?
— John Hesterman (@john_hesterman) January 8, 2020
Who would you rather draft in a startup?
— John Hesterman (@john_hesterman) January 8, 2020
Who would you rather draft in a startup?
— John Hesterman (@john_hesterman) January 8, 2020
Conclusion
What we can glean from the various forms of gauging value is that Brown’s value is at an all-time high. The trend for his value and his current price point has been on a steady rise since the season began. His ADP jumped up shortly after the season started and despite a quick dip following the initial explosion, continued to rise. He finished as the WR21 in PPR formats, and is currently being drafted as the WR11.
- August Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers - August 27, 2024
- July Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers - July 31, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Houston Texans - July 14, 2024
