2019 IDP Projection Review: AFC East
All through the off-season we work to give DLF readers an edge in their dynasty leagues. That’s useless unless we can prove we’re OK at actually making decent predictions. This series looks back through our final pre-season projections and sees how good or bad they were.
Buffalo Bills
Many people were disappointed by Ed Oliver’s rookie season. But he finished up close to the target numbers here. His pressures were down but his sacks were just one short in the end. The really surprising DT was Jordan Phillips. He managed 16 more pressures and eight more sacks than expected. It was a bizarre performance and is likely to go down as his best ever season. Amazingly Star Lotulelei was not disastrously wrong (given Phillips’ performance). He was short in solos, but OK everywhere else.
Jerry Hughes goes down as a major disappointment. His tackles were wildly short of projection and his four sacks was extremely disappointing for 48 pressures. Trent Murphy and Shaq Lawson were both better, but both of them piled up much more pressure than expected.
Thankfully, the LBs were much better. Tremaine Edmunds was 11 solos short but extremely accurate in every other stat. Matt Milano was even closer across the board. They both go down as good results.
Plenty of people think Tre White was a defensive player of the year candidate because interceptions are all they look at for corners. White managed six (prediction was three) but he finished very close to expected numbers for all other stats. Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson both exceeded expectations but neither were on the IDP radar.
Safety was mixed. Jordan Poyer managed nine more solos and 15 more assists, but Micah Hyde was bang on for solos and six out for assists.
New England Patriots
The 2019 Patriots defense – a great unit wasted on a terrible offense.
The DTs generally achieved more than expected. Lawrence Guy and Danny Shelton piled up 16 more solos and 14 more assists than expected between them. Even Adam Butler managed to convert his pressure at an excellent rate and double his sacks.
Michael Bennett was a disaster at DE. He was on a different team by mid-season.
John Simon and Deatrich Wise both managed to do very well against tackle numbers but were close on sacks. Chase Winovich was a strange case. His seven sacks were excellent from just 291 snaps, but his pressures were actually bang on. He’s an exciting prospect to watch.
The LBs were in the wrong order. Jamie Collins came in to play the inside role most of the time. He destroyed all his target numbers. Kyle Van Noy was good as a pass rusher, but failed to get close to his tackles, mainly because he was playing his natural outside LB/edge role most of the time. Dont’a Hightower was a relatively good prediction, but no one relies on him as an IDP.
Ja’Whaun Bentley and Elandon Roberts were both OK, but our projections were accurate in that they were not viable IDP options. The number of people who thought Bentley was a red-hot sleeper was amazing.
The corners came out OK. Stephon Gilmore was very good except that he managed six picks instead of two. Interceptions is not a very predictable stat. Sell him to someone who thinks they are. Jason McCourty played less than expected given he saw just eight snaps after week 11. As a result, his tackles were way down.
At safety the theme was generally under-delivery. Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung were both short in tackle numbers. This corresponds with the DTs being up.
New York Jets
The prediction here for Quinnen Williams was roundly laughed at. He was drafted high in rookie drafts as a “can’t miss prospect.” Well, he missed. He finished extremely close to predictions. He managed three sacks rather than one, but who’s taking that as a good result? Steve Mclendon, however, was wildly low. His playing time prediction was far too conservative.
Leonard Williams was traded to the other team in the same stadium mid-season, but still somehow turned out to be fairly accurate. His sacks were atrocious, but actually his pressure total was good. He’s one to watch. The other DEs were disappointing and mostly irrelevant.
C.J. Mosley missed almost all of the season. Neville Hewitt and Blake Cashman ended up doing OK against predictions.
Jordan Jenkins and Brandon Copeland were decent predictions on the edge, but terrible players. The Jets are allergic to good edge rushers.
Trumaine Johnson simply exploded, which meant his numbers were a long way out. Darryl Roberts was much better though. He was only marginally out across the board.
At safety Jamal Adams had a brilliant year, but a lot of that was due to his sack numbers: 25 pressures and seven sacks simply destroyed predictions. Those are incredible numbers. As predicted, however, he did play much less and recorded just 60 solos. That is a relatively low number. Beware.
Miami Dolphins
Ah, the Dolphins. The hardest defensive team to predict in many years. They continually churned their roster, trying to find any sort of talent and, as a result, used 41 different IDPs. 41! In those circumstances inaccuracy is to be expected.
Rookie DT Christian Wilkins finished just two solos and five assists up. His sacks were on the nose. Davon Godchaux destroyed his solos target with an incredible 52. That was his career year right there.
The DEs were poor. None of the ones projected got anywhere near their targets, and the Dolphins finished dead last in pressures and sacks for the year. A total rebuild is needed.
Jerome Baker had a good IDP season (even though he played terribly) by staying on the field for over a thousand snaps. He beat his numbers handily. Raekwon McMillan and Sam Eguavoen put up strange stats. Both were very close in tackle numbers, but off on pass rush. McMillan was predicted to have six sacks, but had none. Eguavoen was predicted just two, but managed five. Not accurate, but a weird situation.
The DBs are best off just ignored, frankly. None of them were that close in the end. It’s only worth noting that the Dolphins used eight different safeties and 14 different corners this year for a total of 22 defensive backs! As a comparison, the Bills used 11, the Jets 12 and the Patriots ten.
Thanks for reading.
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