2020 Rookie Class: An Early Look at Jonathan Taylor, RB Wisconsin

Joseph Nammour

Jonathan Taylor is highly regarded as one of college football’s brightest stars at the running back position and is expected to be another impact difference-maker on Sundays. For those of you not intimately acquainted with the nuances of Taylor’s game, we’ll dive into his background and discuss his strengths, weaknesses, and future dynasty value and potential.

As A Recruit

Taylor was a consensus three-star recruit out of Salem, New Jersey. According to 247Sports, Taylor’s .8854 composite ranking rated him as the 371st overall and 24th-best running back prospect in the country.

Out of high school and listed at 6’0”, 211-pound, Taylor was not highly recruited at all. He was only offered by seven schools, choosing Wisconsin over Boston College, Virginia Tech, Temple, Rutgers, Albany, and Army.

Collegiate Career

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Stats courtesy of sports-reference.com.

Taylor has been a dynamic force in the box score since arriving on campus in 2017. Taylor has surpassed 300 touches, 2,000 scrimmage yards, and 13 touchdowns in each of his three collegiate seasons.

He immediately established himself as a star as a true freshman, carrying the ball 299 times for 1,977 yards and 13 touchdowns. As was the case for his first couple years, though, he made little impact as a pass-catcher, catching just eight passes for 95 yards.

2018 was much of the same. Taylor improved in the yards and touchdowns columns on a handful more carries and made a similar — and minimal — impact as a receiver.

Taylor has been an unquestioned star for a couple of years, but 2019 was the season that saw him take the next step as a prospect. He finally made strides as a pass-catcher, catching 26 passes for 252 yards and five touchdowns on top of his 2003 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground.

The big rub is that Taylor has struggled with fumbles in his career to date. He actually fumbled 18 times in just three seasons, losing 15, and took a step back in this department in 2019 after improving last year. He’s dynamic enough to overcome this issue, but this is a major concern.

Athletic Profile

Taylor has prototypical size at the position. Wisconsin’s official roster lists him at 5’11” and 219 pounds.

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Taylor has tremendous speed for his size, and it shows up on tape as well. Coming out of high school, Taylor ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash. His agility and change-of-direction don’t stand out, but he’s certainly improved his vertical and power throw over the last couple of years.

Bruce Feldman, a tremendous college football columnist for The Athletic, writes an annual column that highlights the top 50 athletic freaks in the NCAA. Taylor was number five on that list. Here is the excerpt:

5. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin, running back

This is probably the most gifted of all the star running backs who have come through the Badgers program in the past two decades. The New Jersey product has a chance to surpass Donnel Pumphrey’s FBS rushing record of 6,405 yards. 

In his first two seasons in the Big Ten, Taylor has 4,171 rushing yards. The 5-11, 220-pound Taylor— he has added 10 pounds lean mass since coming to program — ran a 4.3 40 this offseason. His back squat improved 100 pounds, up to 605. He cleans 350 and vertical jumps 37.5 inches.

Taylor checks the size box, the athleticism box, and the production box. He’s terrific.

Strengths

  • Prototypical size and has shown consistent durability amidst heavy usage
  • Terrific long speed that can convert chunk gains into touchdowns
  • Punishing runner that uses impressive power to finish runs, push piles, and fall forward consistently
  • Adequate vision; shows good patience and is decisive when seeing blocks develop
  • Terrific balance; absorbs contact and re-accelerates quickly to run away from defenders
  • Physical pass protector and shows consistent effort
  • Made a concerted effort to round out his three-down skill set entering 2019

Weaknesses

  • Significant fumbling history
  • Has shown the ability to catch passes, but is not a difference-maker as a receiver
  • Extremely heavy usage throughout collegiate career
  • Has benefited from elite run blocking in college
  • Not tremendously agile, but shows enough juice as a one-cut inside/off-tackle runner

Draft Projection

Taylor’s running style reminds me a lot of Nick Chubb. Chubb had concerns about his long-term durability stemming from his recovery from his brutal knee injury, but was a tremendous prospect as a rusher. Taylor is much of the same.

The best pure runner in this class, Taylor should provide tremendous value on his first contract for the NFL team that drafts him. The workload he shouldered in college gives me pause towards his long-term value, but the first four-to-five years of a running back’s career should be our main priority from a dynasty perspective anyway. Anything we get on top of that first contract should be viewed as a bonus.

Taylor is likely to be drafted within the first 50 picks of the NFL Draft, and has a chance of being a first-round selection in April. First-round NFL running backs are tremendous assets in dynasty leagues and will almost certainly gain value over the first few seasons of their careers.

Dynasty Value

Taylor is my rookie RB2 behind D’Andre Swift and is my second overall rookie in the stacked 2020 class.

Every year, we see early-round running backs gain value as they take hold of their NFL backfields. Taylor will almost certainly be a workhorse right away as a rookie and should dominate goal-line work. Even if he doesn’t become a dominant pass catcher, he can replicate Melvin Gordon’s impact as a receiver on Sundays.

Taylor will be the first overall pick in many dynasty rookie drafts, and I don’t blame anyone who opts to make that choice. I have yet to see Taylor rank lower than fourth in any rookie rankings, so his floor currently seems like the rookie 1.04 (or 1.05 in superflex).

Taylor could push for top-10 running back value in dynasty ADP immediately, as my rankings are pretty fluid after Josh Jacobs at RB8. There are four or five runners in this year’s class that could push for top-12 value right away. As is the case for elite prospects, rookie draft season is probably the cheapest these players will be to acquire. Try to trade into the top three picks if you want a chance at Taylor and enjoy the immediate production while you can.