Miles Sanders: License to ILL

Bobby Koch Posted On January 4, 2020

Miles Sanders has found himself in the shadows of others so much that he may as well submit his application to be the next 007 at this point. First, it was Saquon Barkley at Penn State. Then it was Josh Jacobs during the fantasy football draft season. It might jeopardize Sander’s latest top-secret mission, but I think it’s time we shine a light on the fact that he’s being undervalued as a dynasty asset.

Let’s start with some simple statements of facts. In college, Sanders didn’t get the opportunity to demonstrate his skills until Barkley left in 2018. Prior to that, his high in yards from scrimmage was 221. However, in 2018 he managed to post 1,413 yards from scrimmage and nine total touchdowns. It was a great way to show the talent that had been hiding behind Barkley all along.

This led to him being taken in the second round of the 2019 draft by the Philadelphia Eagles. Many, myself included, believed this would leave him to be stuck in a committee for his rookie year and that would put a cap on his upside. After all, Doug Pederson had never shown a tendency to use one running back with the Eagles. However, just like 007, I believe Sanders’ talent would eventually rise to the top. I’m glad I listened to that part of my brain because he responded by putting up 1,327 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns as a rookie.

To put this even further in context, here is a complete list of rookies with 1,300 or more yards from scrimmage over the past decade sorted by total touches:

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Some names here might give you pause such as Jeremy Hill, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Eddie Lacy, Trent Richardson, and possibly Jordan Howard. However, being on the same list as seven greats in regards to Odell Beckham, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliot, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs, and Alvin Kamara is a positive in my book. Hey, seven really good fantasy players for a man I referred to as 007. Coincidence? I think not!

You may notice that Sanders finished with more yards from scrimmage than Josh Jacobs, despite the fact that Jacobs is currently being drafted as the RB7 in Dynasty League Football’s ADP, and Sanders is being drafted as the RB19. In fact, in full PPR leagues, between weeks one and sixteen, Sanders finished as the RB13 in total points and the RB20 in PPG minimum ten games played. Jacobs, on the other hand, was the RB18 in total points, and RB16 in PPG.

This already demonstrates that the two should be closer than 36 spots apart in the average draft position. However, it doesn’t account for the fact that Sanders had much stronger numbers in the second half of the season than he did in the first half of the season. Between weeks eight and 16, Sanders was the RB6 in total points and RB8 in PPG. Jacobs over that same span was the RB23 in both total points and PPG. To be the fairest to Jacobs and his shoulder injury, here are their numbers on a per-game basis:

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You might be thinking that Jacobs’ rushing totals are much higher. Well, dear reader, the year is 2020 and I expect you to play in a PPR format of some sort. I’m not saying you definitely want Sanders more, but in those sorts of formats, it’s closer than we think.

I do need to mention that Sanders’ second-half surge was during the period that Jordan Howard got hurt. Was Sanders about to let the Eagles rushing attack die there and then no? No! It would have to die another day on his watch. Here are Sanders’ splits with and without Howard from RotoViz’s GameSplits App:

word image 2 Obviously, Howard’s injury had a huge impact on Sanders’ volume. I guess it’s a good thing that Howard is an unrestricted free agent after this year. I do believe that Howard’s injury afforded Sanders more opportunity, but I also believe Sanders has done enough with that opportunity to show Pederson will give him a license to keep killing it next year.

If you are thinking numbers are the best I’ve got and the editing team will likely try to cover up my embarrassing incompetence, think again! I’d like to present you with a great film thread by my friend, AngeloFF, deeming Sanders to be the most improved rookie. Check it out and come to your own conclusions:

‘What do we see in: Miles Sanders’

If I had an award for ‘most improved rookie’ I am giving it to Sanders.

He has a long way to go before he reaches his ceiling, but he is on the right path, in the perfect situation.

Let's look back at his explosive Rookie campaign.

Enjoy! pic.twitter.com/Np7WGH9GeR

— AngeloFF (@angelo_fantasy) January 1, 2020

At this point, you might wonder what Sanders’ trade value looks like, and here are some recent examples of trades via DLF’s Trade Finder:

Miles Sanders, a 2020 second, and a 2020 third for Nick Chubb
Miles Sanders, a 2020 first, and two 2020 seconds for Ezekiel Elliot
Miles Sanders for Leonard Fournette, Chase Edmonds, and 2020 second
Miles Sanders and a 2020 first for Alvin Kamara
Miles Sanders for a 2020 second

I would argue most of these aren’t terribly off on his value besides the one where he was traded straight up for a 2020 second. That’s a huge loss. I personally wouldn’t do Sanders and the 2020 first for Kamara at this point. I think the combined value of those two assets will outweigh Kamara over the next few seasons.

Among our own DLF Staff consensus rankings, Aaron Jones is currently ahead of Sanders. I don’t blame anyone considering the year that Jones just had, but considering Jones is a free agent after 2021 I think I’d try to flip him for Sanders plus if I could. Below is an example of a trade that DLF’s Trade Analyzer suggests may be close to value:

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That’s certainly a bet I’d be willing to place at the Casino Royale if my life depended on it. If any of your league mates are willing to do anything like this, you should do it before they realize the sky may be falling on Jones’ value.