2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft Do-Over

Ryan McDowell

The end of every football season, like the end of every calendar year, calls for reflection in our process and production. I recently hosted a 2019 rookie draft do-over along with many members of the DLF team. The results showed that our off-season process was slightly flawed. Here are the results:

Note- Pre-season rookie ADP comes from actual rookie drafts hosted on MyFantasyLeague and are based on 12-team drafts.

1.01 Josh Jacobs, RB OAK

Pre-season rookie ADP: 1.01

After becoming a first-round NFL Draft pick, Jacobs became the near-consensus 1.01 pick in dynasty rookie drafts. For most of the season, Jacobs showed he deserved it, earning the Raiders starting gig from day one. He was even an RB1 until a late-season injury ended his season early.

1.02 AJ Brown. WR TEN

Pre-season rookie ADP: 1.07

After an up-and-down start to his season, Brown ended as one of the hottest, and most consistent, receivers in the game. Over the final six weeks of the season, only Michael Thomas outscored Brown at the receiver position. Expect Brown to steadily gain value all off-season as one of the trendiest assets in the game.

1.03 DK Metcalf, WR SEA

Pre-season rookie ADP: 1.05

The big-bodied Metcalf emerged as a serious red-zone weapon for Russell Wilson but then slowed down as the entire Seattle offense struggled down the stretch. We shouldn’t expect much to change for the Seahawks next season as Metcalf plays second fiddle to Tyler Lockett.

1.04 Miles Sanders, RB PHI

Pre-season rookie ADP: 1.04

It was a rough start for Sanders, who couldn’t seem to get on the field, playing behind Jordan Howard and dealing with an injury. Once Howard was out of the lineup, Sanders exploded and finished as the highest-scoring non-QB rookie. Sanders was the RB8 over the final six weeks of the season.

1.05 N’Keal Harry, WR NE

Pre-season rookie ADP: 1.02

One of the biggest disappointments of the season was Harry, who was the favorite to be the top rookie pick until Jacobs’ draft capital and landing spot pushed him up. An injury landed Harry on the injured reserve list and he did not return until week eleven. Despite a shortage of weapons in the Patriots offense, Harry was still unable to emerge late in the season.

1.06 Devin Singletary, RB BUF

Pre-season rookie ADP: 2.05

After landing in Buffalo, Singletary’s value quickly climbed. In hindsight, he should have been drafted even earlier given his clear path to playing time despite the Bills’ crowded backfield, which included Frank Gore, TJ Yeldon and, at the time, LeSean McCoy. Singletary played well enough to be the clear favorite to start for Buffalo in 2020.

1.07 Terry McLaurin, WR WAS

Pre-season rookie ADP: 3.05

One of the top rookie risers this season was McLaurin, who proved to be the Redskins’ top offensive weapon from day one. McLaurin showed off his upside, especially early in the season, posting a pair of WR1 games and four more as a WR2. McLaurin also struggled when his former college teammate Dwayne Haskins was under center. McLaurin’s fantasy production dipped by nearly four points per game with Haskins in the lineup.

1.08 Deebo Samuel, WR SF

Pre-season rookie ADP: 1.12

After adding multiple receivers last off-season, the 49ers depth chart was suddenly very crowded. That didn’t stop rookie Samuel from emerging as the top wideout. He too showed off his ability with six performances as a top-24 fantasy option, though the Niners’ run-heavy offense sometimes limited Samuel’s fantasy output.

1.09 Marquise Brown, WR BAL

Pre-season rookie ADP: 2.01

As the top wide receiver for breakout superstar Lamar Jackson, the rookie Brown enjoyed a solid season. Brown popped with a pair of top-ten fantasy performances, but this offense will always be a run-first scheme and Brown will need to make the most of his limited targets. Nagging injuries were also an issue for Brown, as they were in college.

1.10 Darius Slayton, WR NYG

Pre-season rookie ADP: 5.08

The most surprising rookie of the year might have been Slayton, who took advantage of multiple injuries to Giants wideouts to emerge as the top-scoring wideout for the team. A day three NFL Draft pick always carries some risk even after first-year production, but Slayton’s value has remained very reasonable, making him a solid investment this offseason.

1.11 David Montgomery, RB CHI

Pre-season rookie ADP: 1.03

What a disappointing season for Bears rookie back Montgomery, who totally flopped despite being handed the lead job. His struggles go much deeper than Montgomery himself as the Bears offense was a total disaster for much of the season. Chicago has already fired their offensive coordinator, so there is hope for improvement in year two for Montgomery.

1.12 TJ Hockenson, TE DET

Pre-season rookie ADP: 1.06

It is always difficult to expect much from rookie tight ends but Hockenson was still viewed as a disappointment this year. He dominated in week one, but that proved to be a product of his matchup against the Cardinals.

2.01 Diontae Johnson, WR PIT

Pre-season rookie ADP: 2.12

Johnson emerged as the Steelers’ most consistent receiver and gained a great deal of dynasty value, though he’s still undervalued, based on trades and early startup drafts.

2.02 Preston Williams, WR MIA

Pre-season rookie ADP: 4.05

The undrafted Williams was on his way to a huge rookie season before tearing his ACL. The assumption is he will be ready for the 2020 season and he should start alongside breakout star DeVante Parker.

2.03 Kyler Murray, QB ARI

Pre-season rookie ADP: 1.09

Drafting the quarterback Murray in the first round became one of the biggest off-season debates. With a QB1 season as a rookie, Murray proved he was worth it. He was a value in the back half of round one and a total steal at this point.

2.04 Mecole Hardman, WR KC

Pre-season rookie ADP: 2.02

Chiefs rookie receiver Hardman flashed with the occasional back-breaking play and finished as the WR64 despite seeing just 41 targets. Assuming veteran Sammy Watkins moves on this off-season, Hardman’s value would spike.

2.05 Noah Fant, TE DEN

Pre-season rookie ADP: 1.11

As mentioned previously with Hockenson, the expectations for rookie tight ends should be reeled in greatly. Also like his former Iowa teammate, Fant earned a starting gig and showed some upside. There is some real debate which former Hawkeye is worth more right now.

2.06 Alexander Mattison, RB MIN

Pre-season rookie ADP: 2.09

After being drafted by the Vikings, Mattison was considered a trendy pick as insurance for oft-injured Dalvin Cook. That didn’t quite pay off as Cook stayed healthy for the majority of the season and even when he did miss time late, Mattison was also on the shelf.

2.07 Andy Isabella, WR ARI

Pre-season rookie ADP: 2.06

There is still plenty of hope for Isabella, thanks to the overall upside and hype surrounding the Arizona offense. None of that comes from Isabella’s rookie-year performance though. Other than one long touchdown catch, Isabella hardly saw the field, playing behind veteran scrubs.

2.08 Irv Smith, TE MIN

Pre-season rookie ADP: 2.10

Vikings tight end Smith (36 receptions, 311 yards) nearly matched his veteran counterpart Kyle Rudolph (39, 367) in pass-catching statistics, outside of the latter’s late-season touchdown streak. That was the difference between Rudolph’s TE14 finish and Smith’s TE33 rank.

2.09 JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR PHI

Pre-season rookie ADP: 2.03

The big man from Stanford had a disastrous rookie season. Early in the year, it looked as if Arcega-Whiteside simply wouldn’t even get the opportunity to see the field. Due to multiple injuries, that changed, but JJAW couldn’t produce. He was outplayed by journeymen like Greg Ward and others.

2.10 Tony Pollard, RB DAL

Pre-season rookie ADP: 3.12

Playing the backup role to Ezekiel Elliott, Pollard moved up more than a round since the off-season thanks to a couple of big spike games. Those came in Cowboys blowouts, though he saw little action in most weeks. Pollard might be the top backup in the league, but Elliott isn’t going anywhere.

2.11 Parris Campbell, WR IND

Pre-season rookie ADP: 1.08

The surprise retirement of quarterback Andrew Luck was a blow to Campbell’s value before the season even began and then he spent much of the year on the sidelines with multiple injuries. He’s among the top buy-lows on this list.

2.12 Darrell Henderson, RB LAR

Pre-season rookie ADP: 1.10

Thanks to rumors of Todd Gurley’s demise, Henderson was a fast riser late in the off-season, eventually finishing with a first-round ADP. While Gurley’s role was diminished, Henderson couldn’t take advantage, hardly seeing the field. He’s another strong trade target with Gurley rumored to be on his way out.

3.01 Hakeem Butler, WR ARI

Pre-season rookie ADP: 2.07

Once upon a time, Butler was considered the WR1 in this class. After a tumble to Day Three of the NFL Draft and an off-season injury, that seems laughable now. Butler missed the entire season, though dynasty players are still banking on his upside along with that of the Arizona offense.

3.02 Gardner Minshew, QB JAX

Pre-season rookie ADP: 5.09

Among the league’s biggest surprises this year was Minshew, who took over for an injured Nick Foles and looked like a ten-year veteran. Later in the year, Minshew replaced Foles again, this time it was the choice of the coaching staff and now Minshew is the favorite to start for the Jags in 2020.

3.03 Damien Harris, RB NE

Pre-season rookie ADP: 2.04

Alabama product Harris was among my favorite rookies a year ago, in part due to my lack of faith in Patriots starting back Sony Michel. I projected Michel’s struggles would lead to a significant role for the rookie. While the former happened, Harris never earned a real shot in the disappointing New England offense. Suddenly, the Patriots are not looking like an ideal landing spot for offensive prospects.

3.04 Justice Hill, RB BAL

Pre-season rookie ADP: 2.08

The Ravens ended as the top rushing team of all-time, but that was mostly thanks to Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram. Hill did get some occasional opportunities at playing time, especially last week when the starters rested. It is safe to assume Hill will see a slightly larger role next season.

3.05 Daniel Jones, QB NYG

Pre-season rookie ADP: 4.03

Most dynasty players laughed at the Giants’ early selection of Jones, though the pick is looking like a wise one through the first year. Jones posted four top-two weekly fantasy finishes and the only other player to do that this season was Lamar Jackson. Ideally, the next Giants coaching staff will help Jones show more consistency as a passer and playmaker.

3.06 Josh Oliver, TE JAX

Pre-season rookie ADP: 4.04

Oliver missed most of the season with an injury and when he was finally set to return and walk into a starting role, he suffered another injury, landing him on the injured reserve list. He still would be the current favorite to start for the Jaguars in 2020.

3.07 Foster Moreau, TE OAK

Pre-season rookie ADP: 6.06

Despite the presence of breakout star Darren Waller, rookie Moreau still found a path to production. A late-season knee injury, along with the long-term contract signed by Waller, limits Moreau as a long-term asset.

3.08 KeeSean Johnson, WR ARI

Pre-season rookie ADP: 4.07

While he was the third wideout drafted by the Cardinals last spring, Johnson earned the first shot at significant playing time early in the season. He didn’t do anything with the opportunity though and was ultimately demoted, routinely being pegged as a healthy scratch.

3.09 Bryce Love, RB WAS

Pre-season rookie ADP: 3.08

After suffering a torn ACL late in his college career, Love began his NFL career on the Redskins PUP list. Unfortunately, rather than returning to the field later in the season, Love required another surgery, which has become commonplace among the Washington football team.

3.10 Miles Boykin, WR BAL

Pre-season rookie ADP: 3.01

After showing out in the pre-season, Boykin had the look of the Ravens top wideout. That didn’t carry over to the regular season, though the Notre Dame product did make the occasional highlight-reel play. He should play a larger role next season.

3.11 Hunter Renfrow, WR OAK

Pre-season rookie ADP: 4.09

The Raiders slot man, Renfrow found the end zone four times as a rookie, despite missed games. This offense has plenty of questions, but the Clemson product has locked up his role.

3.12 Dawson Knox, TE BUF

Pre-season rookie ADP: 4.10

Knox earned a starting role as a rookie though pass catchers in the Bills offense are somewhat limited.

ryan mcdowell