Sunday Six Pack: Week One
Members of the DLF community, rejoice! Our long, seven-month national nightmare is over as meaningful NFL games are returning to a television set near you. While an off-season of predictions and projections are a necessity, having real games from which to draw information is second to none.
What dynasty questions am I looking to answer in week one and beyond…?
What is the fallout of Antonio Brown‘s move from Oakland to New England?
Our man Ken Kelly was on the spot to cover both the impact of Brown’s release and what his move to New England means in dynasty leagues.
READ: Brownout: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact of Antonio Brown’s Release
READ: Boston Three Party: The Dynasty Impact of Antonio Brown signing in New England
Who is the number two receiving option in Cleveland behind Odell Beckham? Jarvis Landry or David Njoku?
The trials and tribulations of my rabid Cleveland Browns fandom has been well documented on this site. Take that for what it’s worth when I say the addition of OBJ to the Browns offense is a positive for Jarvis Landry’s dynasty value.
When field-stretching Josh Gordon played 69 snaps in week one of the 2018 season, Landry had his best statistical receiving game (7-106). The troubled Gordon was dealt to the Patriots in week two and things weren’t the same for the former LSU Tiger.
Cleveland’s lack of a big, physical WR on the outside not only allowed defenses to key in on the former Dolphin, but deprived him the space to operate in his office across the middle of the field. Look for Landry to be a weekly WR2 with WR1 upside this coming season.
Why not David Njoku, you may ask? After all, he did finish as the PPR TE9 in 2018 and new offensive coordinator Todd Monken is credited with the development of O.J. Howard over the last two years. Yes, Njoku’s top ten fantasy finish was impressive, but a deeper dive into the numbers are a cause for concern.
First and foremost, the Miami product was inconsistent as he failed to break 50 yards receiving or catch a touchdown in eight games played. Additionally, Njoku’s hands are among the bottom at his position as he finished 39th (out of 50) among tight ends with a mediocre 63.6% catch rate. Last season’s inconsistency sans Beckham Jr. along with his issues catching the football, make the Browns tight end a player I’d be looking to sell immediately if I had any shares.
How much longer will Greg Olsen be TE1 of the Carolina Panthers?
More specifically, I’m watching to look at the snap share between second-year tight end Ian Thomas and Olsen. With the former Hurricane on the shelf for weeks two through five last season, Thomas was disappointing (8-68-0) to dynasty degenerates and Panther fans alike despite playing 80% of the snaps. The three-time Pro Bowler’s week six return relegated the IU product to a backbencher, participating in a dismal 14% of the Panthers offensive snaps from weeks six through 13.
Another injury (this one season-ending) to Olsen gave the rookie a second chance and he did not disappoint catching 20 of 27 targets for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns over the final five games. Even though Olsen claims to be 100% healthy, the writing is on the wall for the former Hoosier to move up the Panther depth chart sooner rather than later. This analyst believes Olsen’s next serious injury sends him to the announcer’s booth, making Thomas a strong buy candidate right now.
Will Mark Ingram thrive as the RB1 in Baltimore despite impressive rookie Justice Hill?
| Mark Ingram Seasons with 250-Plus Opportunities | ||||
| Year | Rushing Atts | Targets | Total Opportunities | Fantasy Finish |
| 2014 | 226 | 26 | 252 | RB14 |
| 2016 | 205 | 58 | 263 | RB8 |
| 2017 | 230 | 71 | 301 | RB6 |
The numbers don’t lie as Mark Ingram is a good bet to finish as a top 15 PPR fantasy running back when receiving at least 250 opportunities. The good news for those with dynasty shares of the Bama product is the Ravens starting 2018 backfield combo of Alex Collins (ten starts, 139 opportunities) and Gus Edwards (six starts, 135 opportunities) had a combined 274 opportunities in 2018.
An impressive collegiate career coupled with rave training camp reviews has Justice Hill ranked as the 16th-best 2019 rookie by our DLF experts. The Oklahoma State alum is clearly in the Ravens future plans at running back, but what kind of an impact can he make in year one? The mediocre tripod of Javorius Allen (43 targets- no longer with team), Ty Montgomery (17 targets- no longer with team), and Kenneth Dixon (7 targets- afterthought) combined to represent a 12.4% target share in 2018.
Hill should see the majority of these scatback targets this upcoming season and is a high upside stash for dynasty and redraft players alike, but expect a healthy Ingram to be the fantasy star of this backfield. Despite what Lamar Jackson says to the media, Baltimore’s blueprint to win this season is built on a strong running game between the tackles and a stout defense which bodes well for Ingram. The former Saint is a rock-solid RB2 with weekly RB1 touchdown upside.
With the addition of LeSean McCoy, how will the volume be distributed in the Kansas City backfield?
Both the pro and anti-Damien Williams factions still have sore fingers as a result of the Twitter war waged this past weekend. The reuniting of Shady McCoy with Andy Reid isn’t great news for Williams’ dynasty value, but not the doomsday scenario some are predicting. The real losers in this scenario are Darwin Thompson and those dynasty players who grabbed shares of the rookie back expecting to see immediate value from said shares (hand raised).
While McCoy will be available to play on Sunday, I don’t see him getting a full workload after only being on the squad for a week. Thus, Damien Williams has the potential to see a larger workload in week one than the rest of the season. If Williams were on any of my dynasty teams (he’s not), I would look to sell high immediately after a potential strong kickoff Sunday performance.
Will Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid Offense mean Fantasy Success for David Johnson, Kyler Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, etc.?
Last week, DLF colleague and friend John DiBari penned an article where he described this Cardinals offense as having a high-ceiling but a rock bottom floor. While I agree with John on the sky-high potential of this offense, his doom and gloom worst-case scenario may be overstated. In true Air Raid tradition, the Arizona defense is brutally bad, specifically in the secondary. All-Pro Patrick Peterson will miss the first six contests and Robert Alford is injured and unavailable.
There’s no better friend to the fantasy footballer than having shares of players on a team with a Charmin soft defensive unit. This Cardinals team will need to put up a lot of points to even be competitive in most games and/or there’s going to be ample garbage time for their three main offensive weapons. This situation creates a safer floor for these three players than one would think.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired - December 8, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired - November 17, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired - October 13, 2023
