IDP Waiver Wire: Week Four
The world of IDP fantasy football is definitely a tricky landscape. While someone seems to erupt out of nowhere on any given week, there are ways to uncover them before they break out. Let’s dig in for week two and see which players have put themselves in the best position to earn their way on an IDP roster!
Since this is a brand-new weekly column I will be running, we are going to start out with three different avenues to uncover IDP talent, and we will figure out together which ones are most important.
The first of three measures will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score. This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big play scoring formats.
The second will be purely a comparison of snap counts. If someone earns more playing time than we may have expected this year, then they are an obvious waiver consideration. In fantasy football (and ESPECIALLY IDP fantasy football), opportunity is king. Unless you are Demarcus Lawrence, it is really difficult to succeed in IDP as a top tier asset if you are in a DL rotation employed in Dallas. Playing time = tackle opportunities = points. Groundbreaking analysis, I know.
Lastly, I will purely assess the matchups for the following week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete of the three measures, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys, so this will be a section dedicated to that.
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Season Totals:
Disruption Score~ 5 Busts, 4 Average, 3 Hits
Snap Counts~ 3 Busts, 4 Average, 2 Hits
Matchup Preview~ 4 Busts, 2 Average, 5 Hits
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Trey Hendrickson, DE NOS (Disruption Score: 52.29)
While Hendrickson falls under the radar with stud teammates Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport, he has quietly led the team in sacks thus far. We would love to see his tackle numbers increase before comfortably rolling him out, but 1.) the IDP waiver landscape is barren after four weeks of seeing roles play out and 2.) he makes a great handcuff stash for Jordan/Davenport based on his sack efficiency.
Linebacker
Ryan Connelly, LB NYG (Disruption Score: 22.45)
Connelly also made the waiver wire article last week and performed well with five tackles (three solo) plus a sack and pass defensed. While I was a fan of his production heading into week four as it was, a side of his game I did not see was his ability to disrupt the quarterback while also holding solid tackle production. The Giants are a team that will normally allow the opposing team to have an above-average number of snaps on a given week, which increases Connelly’s opportunity. With Landon Collins out of town and no certified leader on this current defense, Connelly has the potential to be a high LB2 the rest of the way and deserves another mention on this list.
Snap Count-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Derrick Nnadi, DT KCC (Snap Count: 60%)
Nnadi is a definite name to watch. His snap counts by week have steadily climbed from 33%, 35%, 52% and now 60+% in week four, and he is producing as a result. Nnadi got his first sack of the season against the Lions on Sunday as well as a recovered fumble, and his best two games of the year have come over the past two weeks. For a team like Kansas City who will have multiple opponents throwing from behind basically from the start of the game, Nnadi is a high-upside defensive lineman, especially in DT-required leagues.
Linebacker
Cole Holcomb, LB WAS (Snap Count: 91%)
I’m really impressed by what I have seen out of Holcomb through four weeks. He may be off most IDP radars after only posting four tackles this week, but previous stat lines of 9-6-9 tackles with a snap count of only ~65% over that span, Holcomb is a worthy name to stash away if you are a disappointed Chris Kirksey, Roquan Smith, or Alec Ogletree manager.
Defensive Backs
Kemal Ishmael, S ATL (Snap Count: 100%)
Before offering suggestions upon the news of Keanu Neal breaking the hearts of countless IDP owners *again* for the second straight year, I wanted to see if Kemal Ishmael or Demontae Kazee would prove to be the beneficiary. The answer is unequivocally Ishmael, as he had nine total tackles (just one solo) to Kazee’s single stop. This position has proven valuable in IDP over the years, as the Falcons continue to leave the middle of the field wiiiiide open. Just last year, Kazee had 82 tackles and seven(!) interceptions filling Neal’s role. If Ishmael can come anywhere close to this in 2019, he will be a waiver wire steal.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Kerry Wynn*, DE CIN (Week 5, vs. Arizona)
Wynn’s situation is one to monitor based on his health, but I’m looking for any exposure I can get along the defensive line that is playing Arizona. Murray has been sacked 20 times in four weeks (woof), and you won’t be able to get Sam Hubbard or Geno Atkins for cheap these days. Wynn is a high-upside plug-and-play option if you are desperate heading into week five.
Lawrence Guy, DE NEP (Week 5, @ Washington)
Guy actually leads the Patriots in tackles among all defensive lineman. He is a sneaky player who has established a Trey Flowers-lite tackle floor in that New England scheme, and is licking his chops with a supremely favorable matchup next week against either Case Keenum or Dwayne “the bust” Haskins. Yeah, I said it.
Linebacker
Matt Milano, LB BUF (Week 5, @ Tennessee)
Derrick Henry ran the ball 27 times last week, and he isn’t all that dynamic with the ball in his hands (4.0 yards per carry). Fire up your run-stoppers in Buffalo and profit.
Defensive Backs
Ahkello Witherspoon, CB SFO (Week 5, vs. Cleveland)
I have to admit I am not the most confident about this pick, but if you’re in a place where you are starting a waiver cornerback, you need to shoot for the moon. Witherspoon has deflected five passes in just five weeks (T-fourth-best in the league) and is playing against a struggling Baker Mayfield, who has thrown at least one interception in every single game this season. One errant pass to Jarvis Landry or Damion Ratley is all it takes for Witherspoon to pay off in dividends.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
