2019 Rookie Wide Receiver Upside Analysis: Part Two
Welcome back for my deep-dive look into the upside of the 2019 wide receiver class!
In part one, I outlined the general process I’m using, my goals, my disclaimers and took a look back at recent draft classes to give you examples of what this metric tells you. I’m going to trust that you actually looked at all of that and get right down to business with the current draft class. If you didn’t already read part one, you might want to go back and take a look.
I’m going to talk a bit about most of the meaningful prospects and what they bring to the table, both in terms of their physical traits and their other abilities. For the top prospects, I’m going to push them to a special article (part four in this series) because they deserve a little extra attention in my eyes.
Keep in mind that a score of a zero is the average for the best wide receivers in the NFL, so there is absolutely nothing wrong with being around zero or even a little bit negative. Where I start getting concerned is when a player gets below a -2 and especially when they are below a -4. The score in the parenthesis is the score without height and arm length factored in for those who feel height is overrated. Also, not all players participated fully in the combine. If you see an asterisk next to their name, they missed at least two drills at the combine, so their score might not be 100 percent accurate. On with the show!
Top Dog
Miles Boykin: 9.744 (7.903)
With all of the hype leading up to and then coming out of the combine, I’m guessing many people expected DK Metcalf to take the crown this year. Yes, Metcalf nailed the 40-yard dash and has great size, but his agility drills were pretty terrible. On the flip side, Boykin nailed it across the board! Aside from being a little lean for his size (220 pounds at 6’4”), Boykin tested better than the control group in all aspects while really out performing the group in the jumps. His score puts him into rare territory with the likes of Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones.
Being the top scorer doesn’t always mean great things. Sometimes it is just a workout warrior who doesn’t have the film to back it up. Chris Conley (7.43), Devon Cajuste (7.04), and Robert Davis (5.49) have been the top scorers over the last few years. All of them were fringe NFL players based on their tape who blew up the combine. While these players make great fliers in the last round of your rookie draft, you can’t expect them to be super stars. However, when a top prospect does score super high, it really gets my attention. For example, players like Odell Beckham (5.51) and Jones (8.13) lead their respective draft classes with massive numbers. Of course the question is which one is Boykin?
I think he is somewhere in the middle. He definitely isn’t a top prospect in this draft based on his lack of production outside of his final year. However, I think he is a better prospect than the three who lead some of the more recent draft classes. The fact that his athletic profile grades out as one of the best ever at the position definitely caught my attention.
His landing spot in Baltimore doesn’t really help clear things up either. The lack of established talent at the wide receiver position means he is going to have a lot of opportunity. The lack of passing game production from the team, however, as well as the run heavy approach, means less opportunity. While I don’t have him as a top-five receiver prospect, he is in my top-ten thanks to his upside. I’ve been looking his way in the late second round as a developmental player.
Great Scores (Better than +2. Odell Beckham, Larry Fitzgerald, Amari Cooper)
Parris Campbell: 6.897 (7.313)
*Hakeem Butler: 5.702 (1.961)
*Emanuel Hall: 5.360 (4.595)
DK Metcalf: 4.380 (1.820)
*AJ Brown: 2.609 (3.025)
Darius Slayton: 2.408 (2.495)
*JJ Arcega-Whiteside: 2.250 (1.485)
I almost gave Campbell his own category, because in two out of the last three years his score would have put him as the top player in those draft classes. He just happened to be in the draft class with Boykin, who is one of the top scorers ever. I’m pretty high on Campbell, as it seems most others are right now. He is routinely being drafted in the top-five receivers, if not the top-three, this year. That earns him a special place in the final article of this series where I’ll talk in more detail about the top prospects. The Ole Miss receivers, Metcalf and Brown, as well as Arcega-Whiteside will join Campbell as a part of my personal top-seven receivers.
The first player not in that top grouping is Butler. Some in the fantasy community were talking about Butler as a top-three if not the top receiver prospect in this draft class, prior to the draft. The fact that he was the 14th receiver drafted and lasted until the fourth round would earn him the largest disparity between the fantasy community and the NFL community in most years.
Butler posted a large number by this metric, but he also has one of the largest gaps between his size based score and the one without it. This means he is a massive man, and that helped him a lot.
He is also fast for his size with a 4.48 second forty time, and he showed some explosiveness by doing well in the jumps. He did skip the agility drills, however, which was one of the major concerns I had about him heading into the process. I think this is the main reason that he fell in the draft. He is a fringe top-ten receiver in my book right now. All of the question marks surrounding the Cardinals’ offense both prevents him from being higher while at the same time keeping him near that range. I think he has a ability to be a solid weapon, but I don’t think he can be great due to the agility concerns.
Hall is next on the list. He boasts solid size and great explosiveness, both off the line as well as that big homerun speed. He skipped the agility drills at the combine, which is unfortunate because his route tree in Missouri was very limited. He is going to need to do a lot of work on them to turn into an NFL receiver, and the agility drills often tell us how easy that process will be for a young receiver. His hands and ball tracking skills are a bit of a work in progress as well. Overall, I don’t think he is anything more than a last-round flier. Every year has players like him who need some time to develop, and they seldom turn into starters. Going undrafted and then having surgery didn’t have his cause. He’s currently a free agent. After being cut by the Bears, the Buccaneers claimed him and then waived him at final roster cuts.
A lot of what was said about Hall also applies to Slayton. As a late fifth round pick of the Giants, there wasn’t a lot of draft capital invested in Slayton either. He isn’t quite as explosive as Hall, and he is a little bit smaller and leaner, which makes him a lesser version of Hall. He does have a lot of the same issues as Hall though in that his route tree is a bit limited, his hands and ball tracking skills are a little bit questionable, and he has a lot of work to do to become an NFL receiver. He isn’t on my draft radar in anything but the deepest of leagues.
Good Scores (Positive scores, but lower than +2. Mike Evans, Michael Crabtree, Dez Bryant, Allen Robinson)
Deebo Samuel: 1.992 (4.098)
*N’Keal Harry: 1.942 (1.387)
*Jamal Custis: 1.895 (-0.260)
Stanley Morgan: 1.598 (2.433)
*Felton Davis: 0.849 (0.069)
Olabisi Johnson: 0.600 (2.796)
Terry McLaurin: 0.592 (2.159)
Ashton Dulin: 0.552 (0.116)
*Emmanuel Butler: 0.142 (-0.847)
The fact that there are nine players in this group with another eight players scoring better than this group speaks volumes about the athleticism of this year’s draft class. Some of them aren’t great football players right now, but there is a ton of potential. For reference, there were only six receivers in last year’s group who were at or above this level with twelve the year before. Samuel and Harry are in my top-seven, so they will be coming up in the finale of the series.
Custis, Butler and Davis are all fringe NFL players who posted incomplete combines. My guess is if any of them had done the whole combine they likely would have scored a little bit lower. They are all big bodied receivers with largely below average skills as athletes and receivers. As undrafted players with little to offer outside of raw size, it is going to be best to look elsewhere.
The rest of the group is a little more interesting. Morgan is the top scorer of the remaining group and has the skills to find a role on an NFL team. He is slightly smaller and a little bit lacking in straight line speed than the ideal, but he is otherwise above the norm in all other drills. In addition to the above average athletic ability, he had solid production in college to go with a fantastic ability to catch balls which are outside of his frame, whether they are low or high. He is a player who will start as the fourth receiver on a team, but could grow into a starting role. I was expecting him to be a late-round pick, but he went undrafted, signed with the Bengals, and was waived at final cuts.
Olabisi Johnson is very similar to Morgan from a physical and athletic standpoint. In fact, their combine numbers are almost mirror images of each other. The difference is that Morgan was much more productive in college, which often times means a faster transition to the NFL. He will be a bit of a project for the Vikings over the next few years. What Johnson has going for him is a great set of hands, tremendous work ethic, and nice instincts. These traits could endear him to coaches and teammates alike, which could keep him around in a special teams role or backup receiver to start with. He could grow into something more, but it might take some time.
McLaurin is a name which has become a popular sleeper, thanks in part to a great showing at the Senior Bowl and a strong combine performance. The third receiver in the Ohio State pecking order this last year, he was mainly used as the deep threat with an impressive 20-yards-per-reception average to go along with 11 touchdowns. The combine showed good burst and explosiveness to go along with the speed and acceleration, but his change of direction abilities were slightly below the norm. In terms of the draft, landing with his college quarterback in Washington was the best case scenario. Thanks to the level of comfort they have, he is going to get every opportunity he deserves and then some. This pushes him very near if not into the top-ten receiver discussion.
Small school prospect Dulin is the final player in this grouping. He absolutely dominated his competition as a receiver and a returner, though it was at the division two level. Even with his domination, his team won an average of just a single game per season during his time there. For the most part, he fits the physical profile of an NFL receiver, testing either just above or just below the norm group in almost all areas. The concern is that he is relatively raw and dominated just by being a better athlete than his competition. Once he goes up against NFL defenders it is going to be interesting to see how he does. He signed with the Colts and was waived at final roster cuts, but he is someone to keep an eye on.
Respectable Scores (Between -2 and 0. Marques Colston, Greg Jennings, Sammy Watkins)
Gary Jennings: -0.062 (0.235)
*Travis Fulgham: -0.118 (-1.302)
*Keelan Doss: -1.121 (-0.629)
Since there were so many players in this draft class who tested positively from an athletic standpoint, the middle of this class is much smaller. This leaves only a handful of players in this tier as well as the next group down.
In regards to the score, this group is on the slightly negative side of the metric. If you’re wondering why I called these respectable scores, keep in mind that a 0 is the exact average of weekly fantasy starters. Being slightly below that mark still means these players have WR2 upside if they can refine and perfect the other parts of their game like route running. Overall, this is about the end of the good news for the receiver class, because players who are below a -2 have a poor track record of fantasy relevance. The only glaring exception to this is if they are an undersized receiver.
A fourth round selection of the Seahawks, Jennings had a nice overall combine until it came to the three-cone drill. Maybe it was just a rough day, but his 7.32 seconds put him significantly outside of the norm for NFL receivers. When I see this, it often times means that a player is going to be limited to more of a straight-line role such as a returner or a one dimensional deep threat. In both cases, they tend to not generate a whole lot of fantasy production. Even with the uncertainty surrounding the wide receiver group in Seattle I’m going to look elsewhere.
Fulgham didn’t participate in the agility drills at the combine, which was probably a strategic decision since I don’t think they would have gone very well. His 4.58 second time in the 40-yard dash already pointed to his main issue, a lack of athleticism. If he can add a little more weight to his frame, he might make a better H-back than a receiver in the NFL, thanks to his skills as a blocker and his ability at the point of the catch. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the ability to separate from NFL cornerbacks. As a sixth round pick for Detroit, there isn’t much draft capital invested in him either. I think he’s mostly a backup or special teams player.
Doss is another small school prospect who dominated at that level. He basically skipped all of the runs and jumps at the combine, so his true athletic ability is tough to tell since he played against lesser competition. One of the most productive receivers in football, he always seemed to get open with his routes and find the ball. He is a polished receiver with great instincts and feel for the position. What he lacks is top-end athleticism, which limited his ability to shake better defenders and forced him into catching a lot of quick passes at or near the line of scrimmage. I don’t see a whole lot in his game that will translate favorably, and as an undrafted player who signed with Oakland, he has an uphill climb to fantasy relevance.
I’ll be back with part three of this series, where I start to look at the receivers who scored below a -2. This is the point where I start to get concerned about their ability to produce at the NFL level. It is still definitely possible, but as that number gets lower and lower, their ceiling starts to decrease dramatically as does their chances of being a consistent fantasy asset. If you haven’t seen a receiver so far, it means they either fall into this group or they didn’t participate in the combine. If it is the former, think carefully about what kind of upside they bring to your team. I’ll be back to share my thoughts on that very question. Make sure you check it out!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
