2019 ADP Underachievers: Eight Dynasty Sells

Eric Hardter

With the regular season only days away, now may be the final time for shrewd owners looking to put the finishing touches on their rosters to make moves that might not be available a short time from now.

To that point, while off-season tune-up games showcase the first real football action in months, it’s easy to use the preseason exhibition contests as a blank canvas to paint whatever portrait of confirmation bias we’d like to see. We can craft any number of narratives predicated on things like snap counts, play-calling schemes, and aggregate statistics versus guys who will be bagging groceries next month. In other words, value is currently written in pencil, not pen.

But once players hit the field for games that actually count, their respective dynasty valuations will fluctuate accordingly. These movements will be more indelible, and buying and selling players at anything outside the standard deviation of their cost will prove challenging. So why not use these last couple of days to make some moves!

To that point, I’m highlighting a number of players who I believe will decrease in value as the regular season goes on, and could be at their most expensive now. In doing so, I will partition them out by ADP “zones” – after all, a player falling from the first round to the second has arguably lost more value than a player dropping from the sixth round of startup drafts to the tenth. These zones (August ADP ranges) are defined as follows:

  • 1-16
  • 17-35
  • 36-50
  • 51-75
  • 76-100
  • 100-140
  • 141-200
  • 200+

So without further introduction, here’s who I think you should be selling!

James Conner, RB PIT (ADP = 15.5)

I always struggle with Conner, as it’s particularly difficult separating out his personal triumphs from how I perceive him on the field. But if I’m approaching this in an emotionless manner, I think he’s a prime candidate for regression from his 2018 numbers. The reasons, to me, are multifold.

First, I believe the offense as a whole is bound to regress following the loss of receiver Antonio Brown, who, as arguably the best pass catcher in the league, commanded a certain level of respect from opposing defenses. This could and should lead to fewer trips to the end zone, which Conner was already doing at an above-average level (12 scores on only 215 carries). Lastly, teammate Jaylen Samuels is simply too good to keep off the field, and is as versatile, if not more so, than Conner. With fewer blowout wins, fewer scores, and potentially fewer touches, it’s hard to see a repeat as a PPR RB1.

Amari Cooper, WR DAL (ADP = 20.5)

I swear I’m not doing this on purpose, but I’m going to let Cooper continue as my dynasty whipping boy. In short, this ADP is simply egregious to me, as Cooper is being drafted as a dynasty WR1 despite never finishing any of his four seasons in the league better than a PPR WR2. That is certainly useful output, but they’re not league-winning numbers, even with his penchant for randomly blowing up for 35-40 PPR points one to two times a season.

I know opinions vary on what’s more important to your roster between a player’s ceiling or his floor. But for Cooper, the former is far too infrequent to mitigate the latter, which happens with startling regularity and could actually increase in occurrence on a Dallas offense with more mouths to feed in 2019. You can get boom/bust players with a similar upside for a reduced cost elsewhere.

Damien Williams, RB KC (ADP = 47.5)

Williams had a stellar run at the conclusion of the 2018 season, and appeared primed to function as the lead back on an offense that prefers to use a primary ball carrier. Said offense also happens to double as the best offense in the league, with perhaps the best quarterback in the NFL. What could go wrong?

For starters, Williams relied upon two things: receptions and touchdowns. Both helped hide the fact he only exceeded 13 carries once in six games as a starter. However, a pace of 1.7 touchdowns per game just isn’t sustainable, and recent draftee Darwin Thompson has shown enough to believe Williams won’t receive his nearly five receptions per game, either. Then over the weekend, the Chiefs added LeSean McCoy to the mix.

There’s definitely some money in the banana stand here, but if Williams starts slowly it’s not as if the Chiefs are tethered to him. It’s also not as if we’ve seen him keep up this pace for any more than a few games at a time over the course of his career. As a player who’s signed incredibly cheaply and for a short term, there’s more than enough risk to counterbalance the perceived upside.

Dante Pettis, WR SF (ADP = 66.0)

I don’t inherently dislike Pettis as a player, but he’s already being drafted as a mid-range WR3 after just an average rookie year. It’s true he flashed a bit with four games over 60 yards, including a monster 129-yard, two-score effort against the Seahawks. But he will need to dramatically improve on these numbers to provide return upon the current investment.

George Kittle isn’t going anywhere as a likely target monster, and should again lead the team in all meaningful receiving categories. And while it may be that coach Kyle Shanahan is just playing mind games with his young receiver, it’s notable that early draft capital was used to select the combination of Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd, who should provide competition for targets that didn’t exist in 2018. With Marquise Goodwin also back and healthy, there will be a lot of mouths to feed, and Pettis may wind up as more of a useful football player than fantasy stud.

Keke Coutee, WR HOU (ADP = 92.3)

You can’t make the club from the tub.

For Coutee, roaming the sidelines in street clothes has been more the exception than the rule thus far through his rookie season and sophomore preseason. When he has played he’s been a Colt-killer and little more, with 56% of his receptions and 55% of his yards coming in two games versus division rival Indy. He was otherwise highly ordinary, only achieving seven or more targets in two other games.

Teammate Will Fuller isn’t exactly a bastion of health in his own right, but he should return firmly ahead of Coutee following last season’s ACL tear. DeAndre Hopkins should also do his usual target hogging, meaning there could only be scraps left for the rising second-year slot man. Although Jadeveon Clowney was the centerpiece of the recent Texans-Dolphins trade, Houston managed to add Kenny Stills as part of the deal, which may show that they aren’t as high on Coutee as the dynasty community is.

Kalen Ballage, RB MIA (ADP = 106.7)

Ballage is big and fast and not a whole lot else. That can lead to exciting plays, such as his 75-yard score during his rookie season. But when the long play wasn’t perfectly blocked, the former Sun Devil was failing to break tackles to the tune of 3.3 YPC.

The 2019 preseason has shown more of the same, with wide-open lanes providing a 16-yard scoring scamper, and the rest of his 17 carries yielding all of 24 yards. It’s easy to see why he wasn’t able to carry the load in college, and it’s folly to believe he’ll do so in the NFL. Teammate Kenyan Drake is a better and more dynamic player, and is already appearing to be ready for week one. By the time this article drops, it may be too late to sell Ballage for any real value.

Jordan Reed, TE WSH (ADP = 177.5)

Contrary to conventional stock market wisdom, there can be virtue in selling low if it means you won’t be selling even lower later on down the line. Enter Jordan Reed. Reed has already reminded us of two things this preseason – when he’s healthy there are few at the tight end position who can match his talent, and more importantly, he can’t stay healthy.

Reed was recently placed into the NFL’s concussion protocol with his seventh documented brain injury. Head coach Jay Gruden is sticking to his guns that Reed will be ready for the start of the season, but even if he somehow is, this is a reminder that the young man has a concerning history of taking hits to the head. I hate to take the morose viewpoint that the next one may be his last, but similar to Andrew Luck, the former star player may decide that the game just isn’t worth it anymore, and his health will need to come first.

There are still some owners who believe in the unlikelihood that Reed will stay healthy, and I think it’s worth finding one and trying to unload the talented but oft-injured Redskin to them.

John Ross, WR CIN (ADP = 212.0)

While it would be impossible to be worse than he was as a rookie (zero receptions, 12 yards rushing and a fumble), Ross’ sophomore output was also far from inspiring. The seven scores (on only 21 receptions) were a positive, but Ross could only corral a mere 36% of his 58 targets, with just 13 resulting in first downs. Ultimately, the young receiver hasn’t been able to put his Combine-winning speed to good use.

There remain abstract concepts that could artificially boost his value in the short term (i.e. prior to him tanking it again when he steps onto the field). First, star pass-catcher AJ Green will be shelved for at least a few games to start the 2019 season, leaving room for someone to step up. Second, Ross remains a former first-round selection, and many owners put stock in these types of things, regardless of on-field returns. Ross is the exact type of player who personifies the crux of the argument behind this article – the water remains clear until Week One, but it could get muddied in a hurry with more bad play.

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eric hardter