IDP Waiver Wire: Week Two
The world of IDP fantasy football is definitely a tricky landscape. While someone seems to erupt out of nowhere on any given week, there are ways to uncover them before they break out. Let’s dig in for week two and see which players have put themselves in the best position to earn their way on an IDP roster!
Since this is a brand new weekly column I will be running, we are going to start out with three different avenues to uncover IDP talent, and we will figure out together which ones are most important.
The first of three measures will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score. This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big play scoring formats.
The second will be purely a comparison of snap counts. If someone earns more playing time than we may have expected this year, then they are an obvious waiver consideration. In fantasy football (and ESPECIALLY IDP fantasy football), opportunity is king. Unless you are Demarcus Lawrence, it is really difficult to succeed in IDP as a top tier asset if you are in a DL rotation employed in Dallas. Playing time = tackle opportunities = points. Groundbreaking analysis, I know.
Lastly, I will purely assess the matchups for the following week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete of the three measures, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys, so this will be a section dedicated to that.
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 50 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 15 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Season Totals:
Disruption Score~ 2 Busts, 3 Average, 1 Hits
Snap Counts~ 0 Busts, 3 Average, 0 Hits
Matchup Preview~ 1 Busts, 0 Average, 2 Hits
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Harrison Phillips, DT BUF (Disruption Score: 46.13)
Phillips had a very impressive day yesterday against the Giants, posting three tackles, half a sack, and two passes defended. Phillips was all over the field disrupting the New York offense, and this could be a sign of greater things to come. Phillips did not register a tackle in week one and Ed Oliver is the clear DT1 on this team, but the Buffalo defense has plenty of IDP goodness to go around, and Phillips is an intriguing name that is worth a cheap flier.
Ryan Glasgow, DT CIN (21.00)
Perhaps my favorite part about my Disruption Score is that it is a detective metric (to predict future sack totals) as much as it is a descriptive measure. While Glasgow only had one tackle against the 49ers yesterday in a run-heavy blowout, he registered two QB hits and two QB pressures, which are the greatest predictors of future sacks. The Bengals are redesigning their defensive line with aging stars Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins, but Glasgow is a name worth monitoring.
Linebacker
Leon Jacobs, LB JAX (Disruption Score: 52.87)
We have all known that Quincy Williams is the new hot name to add in Jacksonville, and that was validated with his team-leading nine tackles on Sunday. One other young name that bears monitoring, however, is 2018 seventh-round pick Leon Jacobs. Jacobs took part in the weekly game called “start any DL or OLB playing the Texans” and came out performing well with Yannick Ngakoue missing out on the fun. In leagues that start outside linebackers as their own position, only fifteen of them are close to relevant on a weekly basis. As a member of the Jags, Jacobs is a younger name that can fight his way to regular playing time sooner rather than later.
Defensive Backs
Andrew Sendejo, S PHI (Disruption Score: 8.21)
Sendejo has been an IDP regular starter as long as I can remember next to Harrison Smith in Minnesota, but many dynasty IDP owners found themselves looking to move Sendejo after the change of scenery. If you can still get in on the buy-low window, I would be looking to snap him up in a heartbeat. First of all, the Eagles secondary is as rough as it has ever looked. Second, despite the Falcons offensive line being battered and bruised throughout the Sunday night game, Sendejo was the only Eagles player to record a sack. Each of these facts are great signs for Sendejo’s 2019 IDP outlook, and the fact that both are in his favor have me comfortable with Sendejo as my DB3 or DB4 at a discounted price.
Snap Count-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Adam Butler, DL NE (Snap Count: 82%)
I thought Deatrich Wise Jr. would be the one to assume most of the IDP relevance following Trey Flower’s departure, but maybe Adam Butler will get a piece of the pie here? Granted this took place against the laughable Miami Dolphins “offense,” Butler was a real menace in this game. He recorded two sacks and a pass defensed in this game, and we know Bill Belichick won’t let this performance go unnoticed. The Patriots defense will face a lot of desperate fourth-quarter dropbacks with the way they are playing this season, therefore Butler is an interesting name with more upside than other defensive linemen on the waiver wire.
Linebacker
Pernell McPhee, LB BAL (Snap Count: 72%)
Much like the reasoning behind the love for Adam Butler’s upside, it looks like the Ravens will be finding themselves in several favorable late game-scripts in 2019. McPhee is someone who has had a successful but lengthy career, which is an interesting name to sneakily throw into trades as an “add-in filler” if the person who has McPhee is an ageist dynasty owner. McPhee is still rolling strong as he crosses the threshold into his thirties.
Defensive Backs
Jarrod Wilson, S JAX (Snap Count: 100%)
It looks like Jarrod Wilson is finally rounding into shape. After translating a successful end of the 2018 season into a hot start to 2019, Wilson seems to be thriving in the prior role occupied by Barry Church. Whether or not the role is fruitful because of talent or situation, what matters now is that Wilson has this role (and the 100% timeshare) all unto himself. Do yourself a favor and stash Wilson on your roster if your safety position is already banged up.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
David Onyemata, DE NO (Week 3, vs. Seattle)
Onyemata has been so close to breaking through on so many plays against the Rams yesterday, yet he couldn’t break through to the quarterback. I expect that to change against the Seahawks, however. Pittsburgh got to Russell Wilson four times in week two, and Onyemata is a good name to store in the back of your mind if you’re looking for a one-week rental at DE with a decent tackle floor.
Al-Quadin Muhammad, DE IND (Week 3, vs. Atlanta)
As pass-heavy as the Falcons are, Matt Ryan has been sacked an unusually low amount. All things regress to the mean, however, and the Colts have had no problem getting to the quarterback the first two weeks of the season (eight sacks total). Jabaal Sheard (if active), Kemoko Turay, and Denico Autry are all on rosters, but there’s a chance Muhammad is available.
Linebacker
Jahlani Tavai, LB DET (Week 3, @ Philadelphia)
Tavai is a buzzworthy name selected in the second round of the 2019 draft. Moreso than a waiver add per se, this is slated to reinforce that it is time to roll him out confidently in all formats. Tavai had a break-out game on Sunday registering nine tackles, which was second on the team. Tavai also had a sack against the Cardinals in week one, which truly shows off his full range of skills in his repertoire. I expect him to be out on the field nearly the entire game against the Philadelphia Eagles in week three, where the Falcons’ starting linebackers combined for fifteen tackles against Philadelphia in week two.
Defensive Backs
Carlton Davis, CB TB (Week 3, vs. New York Giants)
Nobody says you have to be good at football to be a desirable IDP play. Of course, anyone in the National Football League is good at football… but Davis has been attacked consistently and successfully to start the season. This establishes Davis’ tackle floor at an extremely high amount for cornerbacks, and when you’re getting thrown at by Eli Manning almost ten times, there isn’t anyone else I’d rather bet on to come away with an interception in a given game.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
