Dynasty Impact of the New Head Coaches
Much like we see every year, the end of the 2018 NFL season culminated with the ritual sacrifice of multiple head coaches. As a result of those firings, we are entering the 2019 season with eight new head coaches.
For fantasy football purposes, six of the eight coaches are offensive-minded, while only two come from the defensive side of the ball. These new coaches’ offensive schemes will have league-wide ramifications for the fantasy landscape.
Without any further ado, let’s take a look at the new, and not-so-new faces we will see on the sidelines this season and wildly speculate how their presence and schemes will impact fantasy football in 2019 and going forward. I’m basing my speculation on their offensive history in the NFL where applicable, and in college if necessary.
New York Jets
New Coach: Adam Gase
Offensive Coordinator: Dowell Loggains
Let’s start at the bottom and work our way up. Full disclosure, I am the captain of the Adam Gase stinks bandwagon. Gase has somehow earned the reputation for being a quarterback whisperer and offensive mastermind, but do the numbers back it up? No.
Excluding his years with Peyton Manning under center (who we all know was calling the plays on the field), Gase’s teams have averaged 23rd in total offense, and 22nd in points scored. Oddly enough, Gase was one of the few head coaches to move from team-to-team within a division. Over his career, Gase has a losing record against AFC East teams, going 10-16 when facing them. He did manage to go 8-2 against the Jets though.
As his offensive coordinator, Gase brought in Dowell Loggains who much like Gase, has had less-than-stellar results in the NFL himself. Loggains has been an NFL offensive coordinator with three other teams; Tennessee between 2012 and 2013, Chicago between 2016 and 2017, and Miami in 2018. Over those seasons Loggains’ offenses have fared worse than Gase’s (they were together in Miami last year). During Loggain’s five years as an OC, his teams have averaged a 25th place finish in both total offense and scoring offense.
Fantasy Impact
History does not cast a positive light onto the Jets’ skill position players’ futures. As long as Gase and Loggains are running the show in New York, the fantasy upside of Sam Darnold, Le’Veon Bell, Robby Anderson, and others are severely capped. On the plus side, if the wheels fall off early in the year, the Jets should be trailing early and often, and garbage time points are always welcome.
Arizona Cardinals
New Coach: Kliff Kingsbury
Offensive Coordinator (Pass Game Coordinator, whatever that is): Tom Clements
This is going to go one of two ways with very little wiggle room in the middle. This team’s offensive unit is either going to click and be amazing or is going to be a failure of historic proportions. No matter which way it goes, it should be fun to watch.
Kliff Kingsbury is an interesting hire, as he is known as an innovative offensive mind, yet he has a losing record over his six years as head coach in college. Despite his losing record, it wasn’t because of his offense. Combining Kingsbury’s years as an offensive coordinator in college and his seasons as a head coach, his teams have averaged 22nd in the nation in points per game over nine seasons, including five years in the top 16.
I don’t know what a “Pass Game Coordinator” is. Who is in charge of the run game? Either way, Tom Clements is the newly appointed Pass Game Coordinator in the desert. Assuming his role is similar to that of an offensive coordinator, this is Clements’ third stint as an OC in the NFL. Clements has had success in the NFL while with the Packers and Bills. Four of his five seasons as an OC saw his teams finish in the top-eight among scoring offenses, averaging a ninth-place finish.
Fantasy Impact
If you’re a high-ceiling, swing for the fences, reach for the stars type of person, this Cardinals offense might be your cup of tea. Now that my cliches are out of the way, if you believe the O-line can hold up, Kyler Murray, David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and the trio of wide receivers may all wildly outperform their ADPs. DJ has a real shot at RB1 overall, with Fitz and Murray looking at potential top-15 and top-10 finishes, respectively. There is an equal chance Kingsbury’s system falls flat in the pros, so keep in mind a rock bottom floor for everyone is a real possibility too.
Green Bay Packers
New Coach: Matt LaFleur
Offensive Coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett
Another new hire that should be fun to watch is the Packers’ Matt LaFleur. In the off-season mad-rush to get any piece of Sean McVay’s system, The Pack hired the 2018 Titans and 2017 Rams offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur. If everything clicks in Green Bay, there should be plenty of fantasy goodness to be had. However, if things don’t click, and Aaron Rodgers and LaFleur butt heads early and often, this might be better than your grandmother’s favorite soap opera.
LaFleur has had mixed results over his two years as an offensive coordinator. His year with the Rams saw them finish the year as the top-scoring offense in football (Thanks Sean McVay). However, his year in Tennessee saw the Titans finish 27th in scoring. If you’re comparing personnel, the Packers have more in common with the Rams.
It seems like LaFleur will be calling the plays on offense (unless Rodgers audibles control away from him), so what exactly Hackett’s role will be is uncertain on game days. Hackett has been an NFL offensive coordinator for five seasons; two in Buffalo and three in Jacksonville. Interestingly, in two of those five years, Hackett’s teams led the NFL in rushing attempts and only once have they finished in the top ten in passing attempts. If Hackett has any influence over LaFleur and his play calling, we may see an uptick in rushing.
Fantasy Impact
The surprising winner for fantasy looks like Aaron Jones. In addition to Hackett’s history of calling rushing plays, during both of LaFleur’s seasons as an OC, his teams finished top ten in rushing attempts too. LaFleur also likes to use his running backs in the passing attack as well. If this team is more run-heavy than expected, all of their running backs get a bump, and Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams might not live up expectations. If Arron Jones can stay healthy, he may have a legit shot at cracking the top-12 at the position.
Denver Broncos
New Coach: Vic Fangio
Offensive Coordinator: Rich Scangarello
Fangio comes from the defensive side of the ball, so his selection of an offensive coordinator will have a significant impact on the fantasy fortunes of the Broncos’ offensive skill position players. Given his limited experience on offense, Fangio brought in Rich Scangarello as his offensive coordinator. Scangarello will have control of all-things offense for the Broncos in 2019, but without an established playcalling history in the NFL, it’s hard to know what this Denver offense is going to look like. The Denver offense is going to be an unknown commodity until we see a few weeks of production on the field.
Fantasy Impact
We have a total wildcard for fantasy production on offense in the mile-high city. Sprinkle in a new quarterback, and this couldn’t be more unpredictable. If you’re looking for a little touch of IDP, Vic Fangio’s middle linebackers have traditionally been monster producers at the position. The top ILB in Fangio’s system has averaged 123 tackles, and his second-best ILB has averaged another 108 tackles. Not too shabby. I’m targeting sophomore Josey Jewell, but his teammate Todd Davis registered 104 tackles last season and has a legitimate chance at becoming the main guy-in-the-middle this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Head Coach: Bruce Arians
Offensive Coordinator: Byron Leftwich
After taking 2018 off following four years as the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals, Arians returns to the NFL sidelines in 2019. Arians and the Buccaneers brought in former quarterback and 2018 Cardinals offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich for their vacant OC position. Leftwich was in a terrible spot as a mid-season replacement on a sinking ship in Arizona last season. His limited time as an OC in as bad a spot as possible doesn’t give us much to work with as a predictor for this season.
Arians, however, has a 14-year history in the NFL as an offensive coordinator and head coach. He is highly thought of in most circles, but his numbers tell a slightly different story. Over his 14 seasons, Arians’ offenses have only finished in the top-10 in total yards four times and within the top-10 in points scored only three times. Conversely, his offenses have finished in the bottom-third of total yards and points scored six and five times, respectively. Not as amazing as you might have thought. But, hey, he still wears a cool Kangol, right?
Fantasy Impact
Almost everyone has been talking up Jameis Winston, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard this off-season. The upside is there, and Arians has had pockets of success during his NFL career, but I’m not convinced just yet myself. Too much hinges on the success of Winston. A player who was benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick only a year ago. A player who is 21st out of 30 in touchdown-interception ratio among all active NFL quarterbacks with more than 1500 pass attempts. A player who is no stranger to making terrible decisions off the field, and if we’re being honest, during pre-game speeches too.
Under Arians’ head coaching prowess, his quarterback has averaged 242 fantasy points, which would have been good enough for 16th last season. His lead running back has averaged 115 standard points, which would have led to a finish as RB30 last year. And those running back averages include David Johnson’s monstrous 2016 season too. At receiver, his number one wideout averaged 143 standard points, and his wide receiver two averaged 112 standard points. Those totals would have been WR18 and WR31 a season ago. Again, the upside is certainly there, but pivoting away from this team may be a winning strategy.
Miami Dolphins
New Coach: Brian Flores
Assistant Head Coach: Jim Caldwell
Offensive Coordinator: Chad O’Shea
The Dolphins brought in former Patriots’ linebacker coach (and unofficial defensive coordinator) Brian Flores as their new coach for 2019. Another defensive hire, Flores’ impact on the offensive side for fantasy is an unknown. One thing I always like to see from a young, inexperienced coaching staff is when they bring in experienced veterans as assistants or coordinators.
That is precisely what Flores and the Dolphins did by bringing in Jim Caldwell as an assistant head coach. Caldwell has been part of two Super Bowl winning teams; once as an assistant Head Coach and another as an Offensive Coordinator. However, Caldwell took a leave of absence from the team in July and is now only a consultant.
Former Patriots’ wide receivers coach Chad O’Shea was named the Dolphins’ offensive coordinator. O’Shea has never been an offensive coordinator at any level and has primarily been a wide receivers coach in the NFL. There is no way to know what this offense is going to look like until we get some game film in 2019.
Fantasy Impact
With so little known about O’Shea and Flores, combined with the departure of Caldwell, this team is the biggest mystery so far. Factor in uncertainty at quarterback with the Josh Rosen-Ryan Fitzpatrick duo, the musical chairs at running back, and several injury-prone or unproven receivers and this team screams “avoid at all costs.” This team may be one of the worst teams in football this season and has an NFL-lowest projected season win total of 4.5. The ‘Fins are a hard pass for fantasy this season.
Cincinnati Bengals
New Coach: Zac Taylor
Offensive Coordinator: Brian Callahan
The Bengals’ front office was swept-up in Sean McVay Mania! Eager to get their hands on any branch of the McVay coaching tree, they brought in someone named Zac Taylor as their coach following 16-years of Marvin Lewis. I’ll be honest, I pride myself on being knowledgeable about team depth charts and coaching trees – and I had absolutely no idea who Zac Taylor was.
Taylor was the Rams wide receivers coach in 2017 and their quarterbacks coach in 2018. Before that, he was the University of Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator in 2016, when the Bearcats finished 123rd of 128-teams in points scored per game. Taylor was also the Miami Dolphins’ interim OC in 2015 after Bill Lazor was fired. That Dolphins team finished 27th in the NFL in points scored. Rolling the clock back a little more, Taylor was once the quarterback for the University of Nebraska, which may seem unimportant, but you’ll see why it might matter.
Almost as equally mysterious to me as Taylor, was Bengals new offensive coordinator Brian Callahan. Callahan has no prior experience as an offensive coordinator and spent the last three seasons as an NFL quarterbacks coach with the Lions and Raiders. Here’s where things get slightly interesting: Callahan is the son of former NFL and NCAA head coach Bill Callahan. Bill Callahan was Nebraska’s head coach and recruited Bengals’ head coach Zac Taylor to play for him there. Things have now come full circle as Taylor has hired his former coach’s son to be his offensive coordinator.
Fantasy Impact
I’m not anticipating anything new in the Queen City. Just more of the same actually. Andy Dalton will be Andy Dalton. A.J. Green is injured again, and Tyler Boyd has to step up in his absence. Even if the new coaches have something revolutionary on tap, I don’t believe they have the personnel to implement it. The Bengals look like a lock to finish at the bottom of the AFC North in 2019. The lack of Marvin Lewis should do wonders, but aside from Joe Mixon, this is a team of mediocre fantasy talent regardless of what Taylor and Callahan bring in terms of scheme.
Cleveland Browns
New Coach: Freddie kitchens
Offensive Coordinator: Todd Monken
Look out Dallas Cowboys; apparently, the Browns are now America’s team! After the week eight duel-termination of Head Coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley, newly hired Head Coach Freddie Kitchens was placed in the role of interim offensive coordinator to close out the season. Kitchens and quarterback Baker Mayfield clicked during the final nine weeks of the season, and so did the offense. Kitchens has no experience as a head coach, but has coached under Nick Saban, Bill Parcells, Ken Whisenhunt, and Bruce Arians and may have picked up a thing or two from them.
Kitchens hired former Buccaneers OC Todd Monken as the new OC in Cleveland. A move that got many in the fantasy community excited about what could be in 2019- and this was before they traded for Odell Beckham Jr.! Monken has experience as an offensive coordinator in both the pros and college and was previously a head coach at Southern Miss.
During Monken’s seven years in college, he has had three teams finish in the top-13 of points scored, including two years at Oklahoma State where his teams finished second and third in the nation out of 130 teams. In Tampa Bay last season, when Monken called the plays, the Buccaneers looked good, when Dirk Koetter took over, they didn’t, so we’ve seen him have recent success in the NFL.
Fantasy Impact
Kitchens is going to call plays despite the Monken hire. An interesting dynamic here is that historically, they have very different personnel usage. According to Jake Burns of Cleveland.com Kitchens used 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end) only 55% of the time, while Monken used 11 personnel on 70% of his plays. On the other hand, Kitchens employed 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends) on a league-leading 16% of plays and Monken used it a mere 2% of the time.
Kitchens is the boss, so we might see less 2-or-3-wide receiver sets than we might expect. Even if that is the case, Monken is aggressive and loves to push the ball down the field and Kitchens isn’t opposed to turning Baker Mayfield and the gang loose on game days. Mayfield should build on his stellar rookie fantasy campaign, and the aggressiveness of this offense should return Odell Beckham Jr. to his fantasy glory days. With so many mouths to feed, all the pass catchers may cannibalize one another, but Mayfield and Nick Chubb should see the volume necessary to be fantasy studs.
Every year we see multiple head coaches fired and hired, with new coordinators brought in, all with the hopes of teams being better than they were the previous year. Some of these moves fail and fall flat on their face, while others bring unimaginable success on the field.
For fantasy, the real-world results are simply a means to an end so fantasy owners can obtain as many points as possible on a weekly basis.
With the newest batch of new coaches and coordinators, we have the potential to stumble upon eight new high-powered offenses. The odds of all eight new head coaches succeeding are slim, but hopefully, after taking a look at their histories and personnel, we can limit our risk when targeting players for the upcoming fantasy football season.
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