2019 IDP Projections: Carolina Panthers

Tom Kislingbury

As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.

Along with the Jets, this is one of the harder teams to predict for in 2019 because of the uncertainty of scheme. It’s not a situation where a new coach is taking over and we can use his history – instead it seems to be established coaches changing their philosophy. This is very unusual and makes it hard to project.

Instead of tackle and end, they’ve been split here into defensive interior and edge to make it a bit easier.

Defensive Interior

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Assuming a three-man front, we should see Dontari Poe at nose tackle with Kawann Short and Gerald McCoy playing outside him. Expect to see Short basically playing the same way in the three-technique spot but to be defined differently.

Either way, Short remains an elite inside rusher and should be heading for a good year. 2018 was a bit beneath his recent production but hopefully, he can bounce back.

Gerald McCoy is also aging fast but after his surprising release from Tampa Bay, he has the incentive to put up a big season. Please bear in mind that he recorded his fewest pressures since 2011 last time out and is the wrong side of 30.

Edge

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With Brian Burns and Christian Miller drafted early, this is an interesting group to see play out. Burns is a fantastic speed-rush prospect and hopefully should get plenty of opportunities. It’s worth noting that he might not be trusted to be a full-time player though. He has an exceptional but limited skillset at present and might struggle in the NFL run game.

Christian Miller is very raw too. He showed some great moments as an Alabama player but also needs lots of work. He was comparable to Tim Williams who’s been a project for the Ravens.

Don’t sleep on Mario Addison. He has 31 sacks over the past three seasons, and he’s had five pretty good years in a row. The new scheme doesn’t really suit him and he’s definitely getting older but he’s probably still the best pass rusher in Carolina right now.

Inside linebacker

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Luke Kuechly remains one of the best LBs in the game. The old concerns about his concussions impacting his health seem laughable now as he’s been a bit of an iron-man having played over 900 snaps the past two straight years. He’s as close a lock to elite production as you can get at the position.

Behind him, Shaq Thompson should finally get his chance to play full-time with Thomas Davis gone. Thompson is an unrestricted free agent after this season, so he has every incentive to do well. High LB3 or LB2 production seems a sensible expectation.

Cornerback

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Donte Jackson had a very productive rookie season and thus has a lot of fans in the IDP world. Corner is by nature a high-variance position so even though he has an elite prediction here, he is a volatile asset and could easily have zero value. As always, selling a highly-rated corner is a smart move.

James Bradberry is the top option of the remaining ones on the roster. The Panthers really do need to start drafting some better corners.

Safety

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With the Panthers changing scheme, it’ll be interesting to see if they use their safeties differently. If they don’t, then both starters are relatively unexciting given the team has traditionally used a lot of two-deep alignments.

If they do change it up, Eric Reid is probably more attractive given that Rashaan Gaulden is an ex-corner. Gaulden, however, has some hype because he’s young and he’s switched positions. Whenever a player switches position, he gets IDP owners excited regardless of whether it’s actually beneficial.

Stud – Luke Kuechly, LB

Kuechly is everything that a modern LB should be. You can argue about whether he or Bobby Wagner is better but you’re splitting hairs. They’re both great.

Disappointment – Rashaan Gaulden, S

Gaulden is either going to play in a two-deep safety scheme or play free safety. There just isn’t very much upside here. That doesn’t mean he has no chance of being good – even deep safeties can have good years with enough snaps (hello Jessie Bates!) but it makes it less likely.

Darkhorse – Kawann Short, DT

If Short gets back to his best, he could be an elite tackle. He’s done it before when he averaged over 50 pressures per season from 2015 through 2017. He’s not a lock in a position group that’s currently very deep league-wide but he has a chance.

Summary

With the scheme shift, the Panthers are intriguing. There’s a lot we just don’t know yet so watching this team closely through the rest of camp and preseason is essential.

Thanks for reading.

tom kislingbury