The 2019 Dynasty All-Hype Team

Eric Hardter

For the past two years, I put metaphorical pen to paper and listed who I considered to be some of the most alarmingly overpriced assets in dynasty football (2017 and 2018). What was my rationale for doing so? I’ll let my former self explain:

“I’ve spoken in the past about the concept of fantasy value versus dynasty value. The former is fairly straightforward – players that score more points have more fantasy value, regardless of any extraneous factor (i.e. age). The latter is essentially ‘user-based,’ with the value being determined in a more artificial sense. In other words, if the vast majority of owners rate a player highly, that’s what he’s worth, regardless of what he’s done between the white lines.

Now, of course, there are numerous examples of players who possess both types of value. Young studs have the best of both worlds – they’re winning you games right now with their play, while owners simultaneously fantasize about the same thing happening for years to come. Even older ‘veterans’ at the apex of their game, a la Julio Jones and Antonio Brown, remain highly regarded. Once you hit a certain, age-related point, however, there’s nowhere to go but down (Larry Fitzgerald says hi!) and that’s fine, because these players are still scoring you points and doing so at a discount. They may have dwindling dynasty value, but they’re producing where it matters, rendering them as a very useful and cost-effective class of players.

But it’s opposite of this scenario that confounds me the most. I’m talking about the guys who’ve done little to nothing on the field, yet are still thought of a lot more highly than their productive counterparts. I’m talking about the Dynasty All-Hype Team.”

Keeping with this yearly trend, listed below are players who, according to the most recent July ADP, still carry quite a bit of value in the minds of dynasty owners, regardless of their proven track records of NFL production. I’ll provide a brief synopsis of each, along with listing some players I’d rather own at the price points.

Before perusing the below, please also note the following two caveats:

  • This list is limited to players in the Top 100 of the dynasty ADP, as these are players who are costing significant dynasty capital.
  • I’ll only be including players who have played at least two seasons in the league. I’m well aware how talented freshmen are valued, and it’s no surprise if they don’t produce early on, and subsequently no surprise if they don’t fall down the ADP ladder.

With that in hand, let’s reveal our 2018 overrated all-stars!

Amari Cooper, WR OAK (ADP = 18.0, WR8)

In the now three-year history of this article, Cooper has become the first repeat offender! Now I’ll admit, from a dynasty perspective I’ve never been a huge fan. Quite simply: to me, he’s certainly a good player, but I don’t believe he’s the transcendent talent his ADP would have you believe. This lends itself to a value inequity between cost and performance, which I don’t believe the combination of his age and perceived upside mitigates.

The beauty of this selection is I don’t really need to rehash my old talking points, because they followed him to Dallas in last year’s midseason trade! Even if I were to throw out his six games with the Raiders (two 100-yard performances, four with 17 or fewer yards), 2018 was once again an uneven performance for the young pass catcher. He flashed highs that few in the league can match, including a 10-217-3 effort against the Eagles and an 8-180-2 line versus the Redskins. He also put forward passable production in three other games (5-58-1, 6-75-0, and 8-76-0).

But once again, the basement was subterranean (obvious metaphor is obvious), with his four worst games as a Cowboy aggregating a line of 16-119-0. He finished strong in the playoffs (over 170 yards and a touchdown in two games), but in the season’s totality, he simply wasn’t a reliable option. All told, in 2018 he finished as the PPR WR18 – a good placement, but assuredly far from elite.

Despite this maddening inconsistency his ADP from last August to now actually increased half a round. He’s ahead of players who have been easily outproducing him on a consistent basis for years (Brandin Cooks, Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen, TY Hilton, Antonio Brown), and just behind those who have easily been his superior. I understand projection is a large part of what we must do to stay ahead in this crazy fake football game, but there are now four years of evidence to assert exactly what I’ve stated above – he’s a good, but far from great player.

The change of scenery remains as the possible equalizer, but to that, I’d add a counterpoint. His biggest competition for targets was the pedestrian Cole Beasley (65-672-3 on 87 targets) and a running back (Ezekiel Elliott). Michael Gallup was a rookie who flashed, but a rookie nonetheless. The tight ends were nonexistent.

This year Gallup returns and should be able to show improvement. Randall Cobb takes the place of Beasley, and in their respective careers has shown a ceiling unmatched by the now Buffalo Bill. Finally, Jason Witten, though older, returns to a familiar setting, ready to function as quarterback Dak Prescott’s security blanket. Given this, it’s fair to reason Cooper won’t be the target hog he was in 2018. For these reasons, he’s an easy sell for me at cost.

I’d rather have: He’s the WR8 according to the dynasty ADP as compared to my 22nd-ranked dynasty receiver, so you can do the math here.

Leonard Fournette, RB JAX (ADP = 31.2, RB14)

As it stands, Fournette’s value is entirely based upon the abstract. I say this because, through two years of play, his performance on the gridiron has been suspect at best, with each season concluding in a YPC average under 4.0, and 11 total games missed for various reasons (injury and suspension). It’s true he was able to turn robust volume (24 touches per game) into a low-end RB1 season as a rookie, but the arguable point remains that, despite his size, he’s simply not built to withstand that type of usage. To that point, 2018 culminated in only half a season of output, and even in college, he broke down as a junior following workhorse usage as a sophomore.

But it’s the thought that he should be able to receive the bulk of the touches that seems to make owners salivate. After all, it can’t possibly be his efficiency running the ball (though to his credit he’s a better than average pass catcher). Instead, it’s the hope that he deserved to be the fourth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, coupled with a seeming lack of additional options at the position.

2019 is now make or break for the young running back. He needs to improve his health, efficiency, and elusiveness, or risk falling victim to the impending class of 2020. His place in the positional hierarchy isn’t entirely unreasonable (RB14), but he’s not a player I’d be looking to draft in the middle of the third round.

I’d rather have: Notably, Derrick Henry (RB20) seems like a similar skill set at a lesser cost, and players like Sony Michel and Philip Lindsay can be had two to three rounds later.

Aaron Jones (ADP = 40.3, RB17)

While significantly more efficient on the ground (5.5 YPC) than Fournette, Jones comes with similar baggage. He carries with him both injury and suspension risk, and has missed eight of 32 possible games throughout his first two years in the league. He’s also an inferior pass-catcher to Fournette, with only 35 receptions over those two seasons.

The additional leap is that Jones is ready to function as a bell-cow ball carrier. He had a couple of collegiate seasons where he approached every-down functionality, but not quite to the extent you’d expect a dominant college player to achieve. And while it could be chalked up to the ghost of Mike McCarthy, he was never truly able to wrest an NFL starting job from a mediocre talent in Jamaal Williams.

It’s true he’s tied to one of the best quarterbacks in recent memory, and perhaps new head coach Matt LaFleur will bestow upon him usage that has so far eluded the rising third-year pro. Of course, it’s equally as likely LaFleur continues having Williams share the load, and there’s always the possibility the offense regresses instead of progressing (LaFleur’s stint as the offensive coordinator for the Titans was uninspiring, to say the least). For the price, I’d rather invest elsewhere.

I’d rather have: See the players listed with Fournette above. Since it’s a guessing game at this point, I’d also rather take a chance on more highly drafted players such as Derrius Guice (RB21) and Miles Sanders (RB23).

Sammy Watkins, WR KC (ADP = 52.8, WR25)

What is there to say about Watkins that hasn’t already been said? Though he flashed in his first two seasons with the Bills (over 2,000 receiving yards), he’s only been able to accumulate a little over 1,500 yards in the three years since. This has included stops in three cities, as following his 2016 campaign Buffalo traded him to the Rams, who then subsequently let him walk to the Chiefs prior to last season. During this time, he has yet to put together a full year, missing at least two games in each of his five seasons, with a number of others played at less than full strength.

His projection moving forward can be summed up entirely by the phrase: “but what if…?”.

That question was answered a lot more definitively when teammate Tyreek Hill received a zero-game suspension following his myriad of off-season adventures. It was accentuated even more when Mecole Hardman was drafted in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. With Travis Kelce still functioning as (arguably) the league’s best tight end, that “what if” has turned into more of a “how?”. I don’t see him overtaking either Hill or Kelce for targets, leaving a narrow path forward for fantasy viability.

I’d rather have: Either of the Tylers (WR27 and WR28), Jarvis Landry (WR29), Allen Robinson (WR30), or Julian Edelman (WR32), to name a few.

Will Fuller, WR HOU (ADP = 76.3, WR35)

On a per-game basis, Fuller has been solid, particularly achieving a high-end ceiling when quarterback Deshaun Watson is healthy. But as an even more extreme version of Watson, the young man simply cannot put a full season together. Over three seasons he’s only managed to appear in only 31 of 48 possible games, missing more time as the years have gone one (two games, six games, and nine games missed from his rookie to his year-three seasons). Most recently in 2018 he tore his ACL, and we have yet to see him in game action since.

This isn’t actually a horrible spot in the ADP, as Fuller remains young, and as mentioned he has shown upside with Watson (11 touchdowns in 12 games they played together). He’s being drafted as a WR3, which he certainly has the ability to surpass. However, we need to see him put a full year together. Ultimately, that’s the definition of hype – being drafted above your seasonal output. The players listed below, while slightly cheaper, have been able to prove more and put full seasons together.

I’d rather have: Robby Anderson (WR37), Sterling Shepard (WR39), Curtis Samuel (WR43), Marvin Jones (WR44), and Dede Westbrook (WR47).

David Njoku, TE CLE (ADP = 86.3, TE7)

Of all the inclusions on this list, I’ll admit this one is perhaps the biggest reach, even if only due solely to the barren nature of the position, and the upside owners are chasing. But Njoku, to date in his two short years in the league, has shown limited upside, particularly with scoring the ball. The Browns also added a fellow by the name of Odell Beckham Jr., who happens to be a pretty good pass catcher and will command a sizable target load. This is in addition to holdover Jarvis Landry, the promising Rashard Higgins, and even Antonio Callaway when he returns from suspension.

It’s hard to see Njoku surpassing his 2018 totals, where he finished as a PPR TE1, but had his PPG output nearly doubled by the elite positional options (9.0 PPR PPG). Baker Mayfield may indeed be the rising tide to lift all boats, but there are a lot of cooks in the kitchen in Cleveland. If I’m missing out on one of the truly elite options, I’d rather bank on a coveted 2019 rookie like TJ Hockenson or Noah Fant, or a less sexy veteran.

I’d rather have: The rookies listed above, or players who should meet or exceed Njoku’s output like Vance McDonald, Jared Cook, or Austin Hooper.

So, what players do you think deserve inclusion on the Dynasty All-Hype Team?

Follow me on Twitter (even though I don’t post anymore.)

eric hardter