2019 IDP Projections: San Francisco 49ers

Tom Kislingbury

As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.

The 49ers have been interesting ever since Kyle Shanahan took over – but the team has been snakebitten by injuries ever since. All teams have injuries and it’s an easy excuse for bad teams but the Niners really have had it bad. Hopefully, they can all stay healthy in 2019 and we get to see this team at their best because there’s a lot of interesting players on the roster and they could be good.

Defensive tackle

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DeForest Buckner continues to be a stud. He’s averaged over 900 snaps per year since he entered the league. 2018 was awesome for him as he recorded 12 sacks. Sacks are a tough thing to predict though – he created 53 pressures this year for those 12 sacks. In 2017, he had 52 pressures but just three sacks. That’s an example of how volatile sacks are. He’s an elite option but expecting regression from last year is smart.

Defensive end

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This is a ridiculously deep position. Nick Bosa and Dee Ford both offer elite upside as dedicated pass rushers (playing the “Leo” spot) with Arik Armstead and Solomon Thomas manning the other “Otto” side.

Thomas is very much a DE by the way. He played fewer than 15% of his snaps inside last season. He’s just not very good.

The scary thing here might just be the caliber of competition. Bosa and Ford both on circa 34 pressures and five sacks seems disappointing for both but it’s hard to see them both playing high snap counts. Assuming circa 2,000 snaps between the top four players, you have to really drop the playing time of Armstead and Thomas to get Ford and Bosa to higher numbers – or give them overoptimistic pressure rates.

There are plenty of futures where this works out differently and Bosa, in particular, is good enough that he can smash these numbers – but this is a tricky situation.

Linebacker

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The 49ers gave Kwon Alexander a $54m contract. He’s been a very productive player over his career (over 12% tackle efficiency) but he has issues too – mainly his awful history of missed tackles (he has more since he entered the league than everyone but Telvin Smith).

Fred Warner had a very productive rookie season in raw numbers. He played well over 1,000 snaps and racked up tackles. But his real quality was very up and down. He had excellent games and awful games.

It’s very hard to see these two not being the most productive LBs on this team but they are both flawed players.

Malcolm Smith is the next man up and brings veteran savvy and experience. He has had some good times, but he offers zero excitement. On the other hand, Dre Greenlaw has built up some hype and had a very impressive preseason debut. He’s one to watch and is worth stashing in deep leagues with 65+ man rosters.

Cornerback

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There’s some uncertainty here. Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon and Jason Verrett are all competing hard for the right to start and none of them are fits playing in the slot. Frankly they could land in any order so you need to keep watching this situation.

K’Waun Williams does have a nickel skillset and he’s likely the slot DB here. There’s a chance Jimmie Ward wins the job but he seems better as a backup who can play in multiple spots than an actual first-choice player.

Safety

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Jaquiski Tartt is tantalizing. He’s a true strong safety in a good scheme but as we all know, he just can’t stay healthy. He’s averaged fewer than 600 snaps for his whole career and suffered three separate injuries in 2018 alone. He’s still worth holding as an IDP as he does have top-12 upside but you need to make sure you have adequate replacements either on your roster or on waivers.

Adrian Colbert is the deep safety here and unlikely to be much of an IDP asset. You can leave him for your rivals to be disappointed by.

Stud – DeForest Buckner, DT

Even with significant sack regression built-in, Buckner should be looking at another big year. The sheer volume of snaps he can play is a massive advantage with the fact he’s a top layer just a bonus.

Disappointment – All four DEs

Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, in particular, are extremely tantalizing, but the worry is there just isn’t enough playing time or production to be shared around four players here.

This is purely short-term of course. Nick Bosa remains a top dynasty asset at the position.

Darkhorse – Jaquiski Tartt, S

If he can stay healthy then our collective patience in him could finally pay off with a strong season. It’s worth gambling on him given his low ADP.

Summary

There are potential stars here at DT, DE, LB and S. The CBs aren’t too bad either.

The 49ers might have been the worst team in the NFL in 2018 but a significant jump is possible if they can stay healthy. Expecting greatness would be wrong but getting to mid-table mediocrity is viable. After the last couple of years for this team, that’s exciting!

Thanks for reading.

tom kislingbury