2019 IDP Projections: Kansas City Chiefs
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
What a magical year 2018 was for the Chiefs. They were incredible offensively and had truly epic shootouts with the Rams and Patriots before not quite having enough experience and nous to get past Bill Belichick in January.
Unfortunately, on the other side of the ball, they were a bit of a mess. They were among the worst teams in the NFL in terms of stopping the run and tackling. They look OK in raw coverage and pass rush numbers but that’s because they were always playing teams going bombs-away because they were so far behind KC.
We have to expect some regression offensively. It’s just very rare to stay that good year on year. But that means we should expect progression defensively too. The change in defensive coordinator is interesting. Steve Spagnuolo is a big name and has created successful units before. Let’s see what difference it will likely make.
Defensive tackle
Chris Jones was one of the better pass rushers in football and finished second-team All-Pro. With the new scheme under coach Spagnuolo, Jones becomes a tackle and is projected here to be the top-scoring option in football.
His 74 pressures last season were amazing but even with regression built-in, we should see plenty of productivity.
Derrick Nnadi is the nose tackle and although he should see good tackle numbers, he is going to have just a fraction of the effectiveness as a pass rusher.
Defensive end
The Chiefs really attacked their edge position this off-season. Justin Houston is gone after eight successful seasons and Frank Clark was traded in with Alex Okafor and Emmanuel Ogbah free agent signings. At the time of writing, Clark and Okafor are listed as starters but expect things to change.
Clark is the only player expected to have a seriously high workload and he’s by far the top pass rusher on the team so he should be an elite IDP again.
Behind him, we’ll see how the team approaches it, but they are likely to use a “big end” which suggests Breeland Speaks might get a bit more playing time than is shown here.
Emmanuel Ogbah is likely to get a bit of love from IDP owners because he has a recognizable name but he’s unlikely to provide much value.
Linebacker
Anthony Hitchens was pretty effective last year as a pure tackle – but his value was limited by his lack of big plays. In tackle-heavy leagues, that didn’t matter but in other leagues, you were probably a little frustrated with him. His issue (as it always has been) was his poor play in coverage. He was targeted 63 times last year and 58 went for receptions. He managed exactly zero passes defended. He’ll be a useful IDP but he’s not a good enough player to be an elite IDP.
Reggie Ragland is listed as the starter next to him right now, but Ragland is even worse in coverage that Hitchens. It’s likely he doesn’t even see the field in passing situations which will severely limit his production.
Damien Wilson is the strong side LB here, but the backups are interesting. Darron Lee was a bust as a Jet but he did show some ability in space last year and Dorian O’Daniel definitely has some talent. As a converted safety, he is a very modern player and pretty much the opposite of Ragland.
Cornerback
Kendall Fuller is a good player and had strong value as a corner last year. He’s one of very few corners who have a good chance of retaining IDP value across seasons. On the other side, there seems to be a full-blown battle for snaps with none of them currently looking like IDP options.
Safety
This is a conundrum. We know that Tyrann Mathieu will be used as a full-time player because he’s really good and the Chiefs gave him a very large contract. What we don’t know is how he’ll be used. He’s played in the slot, deep and in the box in his career. Steve Spagnuolo has favored a classic strong/free safety partnership before, but the presence of Mathieu might let him be more versatile.
On top of that, Juan Thornhill is similarly multiple. He can line up in all three spots too and as a second-round pick, he’ll likely get his chance early. The two of them together could be really interesting to watch. But whenever we see safeties without dedicated roles, they tend to all be fairly mediocre stat-producers.
Daniel Sorenson is a hybrid SS/nickel LB. He’s really not very good but on a team with bad coverage LBs, he might have a role.
And lastly, Armani Watts is a specialist free safety. Expect him to be used sparingly unless someone gets hurt.
Stud – Chris Jones, DT
The positional designation doesn’t matter. He’s just a really good player. He managed to get over his issues with playing hard all the way through 60 minutes last year and it paid off with great results.
Disappointment – Tyrann Mathieu, S
Mathieu is a massive name as an IDP but it’s probably not warranted.
He was spectacular early in his career and has good solo numbers in the last two years, but his assists are a problem. He has just 43 assists in six years in the NFL and 19 of them came in 2018. That’s stat crew numbers, too. PFF have him as 32 career assists with just 11 in 2018. We’ll see how he’s used but he’s valued as great and produces as good.
Darkhorse – Darron Lee, LB
It’s not certain Darron Lee has a full-time role at all but he might be the best option as a three-down LB on this roster. If he wins a starting job, he could produce big numbers.
Summary
It’s hard to watch the Chiefs defense because given how many shootouts they were in in 2018 there was always something more exciting going on. But with Frank Clark, Chris Jones and Tyrann Mathieu in the team, hopefully we’ll see a big improvement in 2019.
Thanks for reading.
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