2019 IDP Projections: Washington Redskins

Tom Kislingbury

As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.

Washington under Jay Gruden have been okay for the most part – not contenders but not disastrous. They even started out 2018 with a 6-3 record before Alex Smith’s horrific injury destroyed the season.

They’ve retooled at quarterback but suddenly this roster seems fairly threadbare. Franchise offensive tackle Trent Williams is upset with the team and demanding a trade. At QB, they have Smith looking at a forced retirement, a rookie (Dwayne Haskins) and the underwhelming Case Keenum. Plus, the skill positions are uninspiring for everyone bar the dynasty world.

Let’s have a look at the defense.

Defensive tackle

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Da’Ron Payne had an exceptional rookie season in 2018, recording 40 solos tackles. Only Lawrence Guy had more (41) among tackles. Unfortunately, it was a big outlier for this defense and looks like a prime regression candidate as a stat. His five sacks also look very unlikely to be unrepeatable.

It’s possible Payne simply set his own precedent with his play but with nose tackles, it’s almost always better to be conservative.

Defensive end

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Continuing the theme last year was exceptionally productive for the ends in this scheme as well. They both (Jonathan Allen and Matt Ioannidis) recorded over 35 pressures which is unusual. Even if we assume that happens again, around five sacks each is a more realistic return than the eight they managed in 2018.

This Washington front is a fearsome one but 2018 simply saw much more production than we normally see from this team, and sadly we can’t count on that remaining steady year to year.

Inside linebacker

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This is a bit of a mess. Reuben Foster seemed like a shrewd signing for the team when he was cleared from his latest disciplinary issues but then he got injured and will miss the year while Mason Foster was cut right at the start of camp.

Of the available options, Shaun Dion Hamilton is the most attractive. He was a fine player at Alabama and received rave reviews as Nick Saban’s on-field general but suffered two injuries that left his pro career in doubt. If he’s fully rehabilitated, he could definitely have a breakout season as a three-down player.

Jon Bostic is likely the second player in snaps this year – but he’s also unlikely to be used much on passing downs. He really showed his age last season in Pittsburgh in coverage. Instead, expect the team to continue using Josh Harvey Clemons as a nickel LB in passing situations with Zach Vigil also having a role.

Outside linebacker

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Ryan Kerrigan has double-digit sacks in his last five seasons (67 over that period) and has averaged 11.75 sacks per year over the eight years he’s been an NFL player. Only J.J. Watt and Von Miller have more sacks than him during that time. That’s incredible production for a player not often mentioned as one of the best pass rushers in the league. In these scoring settings, he doesn’t show up given his LB designation but in leagues where OLBs score well, he is a fantastic option.

On the other side, rookie Montez Sweat brings a ton of promise after he fell in the draft due to worries about a medical issue. Expect him to be sporadically impressive as a rookie. Playing in a stacked front five will surely help him.

Cornerback

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Josh Norman is clinging on in Washington although frankly, his play since that magical season in Carolina has been worth nowhere near what he’s been paid. Nonetheless, Washington love their big names and he’s still that. Expect him to be the first corner on the team in playing time and that to translate to decent tackle numbers.

After Norman, there are a lot of players fighting for snaps. Quinton Dunbar has done okay when we’ve seen him. Fabian Moreau has been promising but limited at the same time. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is simply veteran depth at this stage and neither Adonis Alexander nor Greg Stroman look likely to step up significantly.

Safety

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Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Washington splashes huge cash on a big-name safety famed for their big-play ability.

Landon Collins is certainly an exciting signing and expecting anything less than top 12 production is foolish. However, moving teams is also a worry. This scheme tends not to use a distinct strong/free safety split which limits potential. Many fans will tell you Collins is a box safety or even an LB hybrid but in reality, his value comes from his ability to play in the box as well as deep. Here’s how he lined up in 2018:

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Hopefully, he can translate his talent and production to a different scheme but it’s no sure thing. This is a reminder that value for all safeties fluctuates wildly.

Stud – Landon Collins

Concerns about his team switch notwithstanding, Collins remains an elite player. He leads all defensive backs in solos, assists and total tackles over the past three seasons and he’s also shown a knack for big plays (although 2018 was a down year).

Disappointment – Matt Ioannidis

As above, the Redskins’ defensive line performed well above historic benchmarks last season. A lot of the stats involved (tackle efficiency and sack %) are just not sticky across years so we should expect regression.

Darkhorse – Ryan Kerrigan

It’s really hard to overstate how good Kerrigan has been over a long period of time. In some leagues, he’s going to be devalued but if he had played his career with a DE designation, he’d have been among the best IDPs of the last several years. He’s an ideal player in the bestball leagues that are gathering favor.

Summary

There’s a slight paradox here. The front five is seriously good – but after such a productive 2018 expecting regression is also smart. Add in the uncertainty at inside linebacker and Landon Collins and Washington are a risk/reward team.

Thanks for reading.

tom kislingbury