2019 IDP Projections: Dallas Cowboys

Tom Kislingbury

As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.

The Cowboys are a pretty intriguing defense for 2019. They seem to have hit on a few recent draft picks on the defensive side of the ball and they’ve done a good job of keeping hold of talent. It’s Dallas so of course, the roster is uneven but there’s plenty to be excited about here.

Defensive tackle

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Maliek Collins has been consistently disruptive over the past three years. He’s averaged about 29 pressures per season over that period so this projection is slightly conservative. If he can add some more tackles, it’ll boost him up a bit and he could really do with more snaps but in big-play leagues, he’s going to have some big weeks.

Aside from him, the others are really all vying for playing time. Camp will tell us more about the hierarchy but none of them are really priority IDPs.

Defensive end

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This unit is deep but still somehow thin. Demarcus Lawrence is a stud (even if he did throw a tantrum about his Madden rating) but after him, there are a lot of players who’ve shown some talent but never quite put it together.

Tyrone Crawford doesn’t get much chat but he was the clear second end on the roster in 2018. Robert Quinn has never got close to his magical 2013 season but he’s a steady performer. Taco Charlton was a first-round pick but has never lived up that, and Dorance Armstrong and Joe Jackson have got IDP draft people excited at times too.

Realistically this is set up to be a deep rotation after Lawrence and none of the players will be very useful outside of best ball leagues.

Inside linebacker

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Suddenly the Cowboys have one of the best young LB partnerships in the NFL. All they had to do was invest two early picks in them.

Expect Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch to again be good – but not live up to rabidly optimistic Cowboys fans’ dreams. Vander Esch was absurdly efficient as a tackler (a solo or assist on over 17% of his snaps) last year. Playing more should help compensate but he already managed 784 snaps, 35th among all inside LBs last year. With injury risk it’s by no means certain he plays more than that. Vander Esch is still a fine, young asset but expectations for him are a little out of control.

Still, both Smith and Vander Esch finishing as top 24 LBs is a realistic goal and the difference between top and bottom in that range relatively small.

Cornerback

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Byron Jones has had a weird career so far but his move to outside corner has to go down as a phenomenal success. He played exceptionally in 2018 as his ten PDs tells us. He should have all the volume he needs to be a top-tier IDP corner.

On the other side, we should see Chidobe Awuzie play. He was second-best to Jourdan Lewis back in 2017 when they were rookies but seized the job last year. After their week eight bye, Awuzie averaged 63 snaps per week.

Safety

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And here’s the yawning hole of averageness. This defense is very talented but at safety, there’s just a pit of not-good-enough.

Xavier Woods played pretty well in 2018 although given he was the deeper of the safeties (in contrast to what was expected based on his college tape), he was a poor IDP. Jeff Heath is just bad. Only four players in the NFL recorded more missed tackles than he did and quarterbacks recorded over a 105 QBR when throwing into his primary coverage.

Stud – Demarcus Lawrence, DE

Lawrence isn’t quite as great as he thinks he is but he’s one of the better pass rushers in the NFL. Only four players have recorded more total pressures than he has in the past two seasons combined.

Disappointment – Leighton Vander Esch, LB

Vander Esch could easily be a top 12 LB, but anyone expecting him to record close to a 17% tackle rate again is going to be disappointed.

Darkhorse – Maliek Collins, DT

Collins has shown a lot as an interior pass rusher – he just needs to play a little more and produce commensurately. He could easily be a very useful DT.

Summary

This defense has a lot of talent and will be well-coached. But the situation at safety means there’s a serious risk it all falls down. And given it’s Dallas, all the good players have been overhyped and are pretty much un-buyable at current prices.

Thanks for reading.

tom kislingbury