Two Undervalued Rookie Tight Ends to Target

Dynasty owners are regularly searching for players who outperform their expectations and average draft position. Our brains are more attuned to negative outcomes, however. It’s easy to weave a narrative in our minds of why certain players can’t be successful.

Negative bias is a tendency to have greater sensitivity to negative than to positive events. If you’ve skipped ahead to the players listed below in this article, you may be telling yourself why these players shouldn’t be targeted.

Imagine if the opposite happens. Imagine being two steps ahead of the competition in your league. This mini-series will identify undervalued players at various positions you should target. Here, I share two undervalued rookie tight ends you can target late in dynasty startup or rookie drafts.

Alize Mack, TE NO

The New Orleans Saints selected Mack with the 231st pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. The number one tight end recruit out of high school played his collegiate football at Notre Dame. Mack was academically ineligible in 2016, but was able to practice with his teammates. He started six games in 2017, but finished that season with 19 receptions, 166 receiving yards, and a touchdown. Mack’s production increased last season with 36 receptions, 360 receiving yards, and three touchdowns while starting 12 games.

#Saints land my #2 Flex TE in Alize Mack. Highly touted HS player who just started to realize some of his potential this past season

— Emory Hunt (@FBallGameplan) April 27, 2019

His combine numbers and collegiate production are not going to blow you away. The biggest concern many NFL Draft analysts had about Mack was his ability to adapt to the physicality of the NFL and the tight end position.

He has very good ball tracking ability, hands, and experience working from the slot (ranked as the eighth best TE out of the slot, according to Pro Football Focus). Mack graded very well as a pass blocker according to PFF but could improve as a run blocker. He isn’t the most athletic tight end but could excel in the right offensive scheme such as the one in New Orleans.

New #Saints TE Alizé Mack lined up all over the place for Notre Dame in 2018. Here are his snap counts by position:

Inline TE: 336 snaps (51.1%)
Slot Receiver: 201 snaps (30.6%)
Backfield (FB/HB): 110 snaps (16.7%)
Outside WR: 10 snaps (1.5%)#WhoDat ⚜

— PFF NO Saints (@PFF_Saints) April 27, 2019

The Saints addressed their need at the tight end position in the short term with free agent signing of Jared Cook. The 32-year-old signed a two-year, $15 million contract with the team. Cook will be 34 years old once this contract ends.

The only tight ends besides Tony Gonzalez to finish a regular season with 150 or more PPR fantasy points at age 34 or older since 2000 are Jason Witten, Shannon Sharpe, Benjamin Watson, and Antonio Gates. It’s unlikely that Cook, given his statistical body of work up to this point in his career, will join that club.

The long term solution at the tight end position for the Saints will be Mack.

Saints tight ends have averaged 8.3 targets per game since Sean Payton has been in New Orleans since 2006. Mack’s biggest competition to back up Cook is Josh Hill. He is the midst of a three-year contract worth $8.85 million and will be with the Saints through 2021. Hill has averaged 3.8 PPR fantasy points per game since entering the NFL back in 2013. This is a matchup Mack can win.

Payton’s contract suggests he’ll be in New Orleans as the head coach for many seasons to come. The time will come when the Saints offense has a new quarterback under center, but the offensive scheme will remain the same.

It would be prudent to acquire Mack sooner rather than later considering his current value.

Jace Sternberger, TE GB

From unknown JUCO prospect uncovered by Jimbo Fisher to catching passes from Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. #GigEm Jace Sternberger. #PackersDraft

— Greg Bailey (@GregBailey13) April 27, 2019

The Green Bay Packers selected Sternberger with the 75th overall pick. He became a consensus All-American at Texas A&M, All-SEC recipient, and the team’s offensive most valuable player. Sternberger finished last season with 48 receptions, 832 receiving yards, and ten touchdowns. He was the seventh tight end selected, which was surprising – many mock drafts projected Sternberger as a second round pick.

Sternberger has very good athleticism, ball skills, catch radius, and route running skills. He is an adequate blocker, but will truly succeed in a role that allows him to operate as a move tight end.

With the 75th overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft, the #Packers select: Jace Sternberger, tight end, Texas A&M. There’s your pass catcher for Aaron Rodgers. Packers absolutely had to get a TE in first two days, and they do.

— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) April 27, 2019

Sternberger is in a great situation. He’ll have a chance to learn how to be a pro behind veterans Jimmy Graham and Marcedes Lewis while building a rapport with future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Sternberger’s exposure to Jimbo Fisher’s pro-style offense at A&M will also him to adapt quickly to an NFL offense. One concern is that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has only averaged 6.5 targets per game to the tight ends since 2008. This could change as the team’s new head coach Matt LaFleur installs his own offensive scheme.

Sternberger has the potential to end up as the top tight end from the 2019 draft class. The time to acquire him is now because his opportunity to shine won’t come until a few seasons from now.

CONCLUSION

What will you do with the information you learned through this article? If you are preparing for a rookie or dynasty startup draft, select these players a few rounds ahead of their average draft position.

If they happen to be available in the free agent pool, add them to your roster. If they are already on another roster, then send a trade offer. The time to act is now. The value of Mack and Sternberger will only go up from here.

Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below, discuss in our forums, or reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody.

Until next time!