2019 IDP Projections: Buffalo Bills

Tom Kislingbury

As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.

The Bills often get talked about as a high-snap defense but in reality, they finished just 28th last season in volume. They could easily rebound but any notions that poor offense translates into lots of defensive snaps are false.

Defensive tackle

word image 17

Ed Oliver is a red-hot prospect and walks into a great situation where he’ll be the best interior pass rusher from day one. Having said that, he’s a rookie and will need to adjust to the NFL. Expecting an elite season straight off the bat is optimistic.

Star Lotulelei is the nose in Buffalo and will be correspondingly less effective.

Defensive end

word image 18

On the edge, Jerry Hughes is one of the more underrated players in the league. Only Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, and Dee Ford had more pressures than he did in 2018. In fact, Hughes in 2018 was the only player in the last decade to manage 74 or more pressures and not have a double-digit sack season. Expect him to be just as good in real life and better on the stat sheet in 2019.

Behind them, there’s a bunch of JAGs fighting for playing time. Trent Murphy is probably the best player, but none are priority holds.

Linebacker

word image 19

Tremaine Edmunds was slightly overshadowed as a rookie but make no mistake; he is a top-tier IDP prospect in an amazing situation. Expect him to be a top-12 player this year.

Behind him, Matt Milano is likely to hold on to the full-time role he won last season. He’s a strong coverage player which increases his potential of being an effective IDP for you.

Behind those two we should see Lorenzo Alexander playing Sam again. He’s had a fine late-career renaissance but he’s too unpredictable to be useful in most leagues.

Cornerback

word image 20

Tre’Davious White is the top corner, but unfortunately, this is not the most conducive scheme for IDP scoring at the position. His name value is likely higher than his IDP value. The second corner should be Texans bust Kevin Johnson who at least has talent (he was a first-round pick) but has been either injured or terrible for quite a while now.

Taron Johnson (who quietly did very well in 2018) should play in the slot and is also unlikely to be a productive player for your team.

Safety

word image 21

A year ago, this column was arguing against overvaluing Micah Hyde on the back of impressive interception total in 2017. He’s a poor IDP option given he plays fairly deep.

The Bills run a two-deep system on the whole but the one who plays most in the box is Jordan Poyer (about half the time in 2018) and he should be your target here. He has a strong chance of being useful.

Rafael Bush is a popular name in IDP but really should not be owned in most leagues. He’s unlikely to play much and was used in the slot a lot last season when he did play.

Stud – Tremaine Edmunds

Edmunds looks set to step up to one of the more productive IDPs in the league. He only turned 21 in May and showed clear progression as a coverage player in 2018. This is the last chance to buy him.

Disappointment – Ed Oliver

Oliver is a very talented player, but in most leagues, only the top 12 tackles are worth starting. It’s asking a lot for a rookie to do that well and Oliver has been routinely drafted too high in dynasty leagues based on his draft capital and big name.

Darkhorse – Jerry Hughes

No one says it but Hughes is a really good player. He has had six straight productive seasons as a pass rusher including his fantastic (albeit unknown) 2018. He is such a great value player and could definitely produce top five pressure numbers again.

Summary

The Bills have a few superstar names on defense which makes up for their atrocious offense. There’s plenty of good options for your IDP teams here and you could do much worse than go into 2019 relying on them.

Thanks for reading.

tom kislingbury