Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Ryquell Armstead, RB JAC

Bruce Matson Posted On June 3, 2019

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Name: Ryquell Armstead

Position: Running Back

Pro Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

College Team: Temple Owls

Draft Status: Round five, 140th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

Height: 5’11’’
Weight: 220 pounds
Arms: 30 5/8’’
Hands: 9 1/8’’
40-Yard Dash: 4.45
Bench Press: 22
Vertical Jump: 30
Broad Jump: 114
3-Cone Drill: 7.02
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.29

STRENGTHS

An aggressive one-cut downhill runner with good NFL size
Creates a low pad level at the point of contact, allowing him to fall forward and potentially break tackles
Has a good approach to the line of scrimmage and is very decisive when it comes to locating the running lane
Avoids tacklers with good footwork and anticipation
Good short-yardage and goal-line back
Can maneuver through trash around the line of scrimmage
Acceptable athleticism
Gritty pass blocker

WEAKNESSES

Not a quick-twitch athlete
Needs time to build speed
Lacks short area quickness and acceleration
Only caught 34 passes in his four-year career at Temple

OPPORTUNITIES

While not an elite level prospect, Armstead does possess some qualities that could allow him to be productive against NFL level competition. He’s a very assertive runner who finds the hole quickly which will translate into yards gained if given the opportunity. We’ve seen running backs in the past flash with a similar skill set. There’s a good chance that he could be productive for at least the short-term if he receives a sizeable workload.

Speaking about sizeable workloads, Leonard Fournette is the team’s lead back and should see a large market share of the touches out of the backfield. He has an extensive injury history, however, tending to get banged up during the course of a season. This offers opportunities for other running backs on the depth chart.

The Jaguars depth chart is murky yet promising at the running back position. They are loaded with your traditional gatekeepers. Alfred Blue, Thomas Rawls, and Benny Cunningham are all currently on the roster. None of them are considered world beaters which should make working up the depth chart obtainable for Armstead.

Fournette has a high probability of getting injured again due to his previous ankle injuries. This glorifies the backup running back spot for the Jaguars because that player will be the next man up when Fournette is out of the lineup. Armstead has a clear path to compete for this role. If he can’t beat out the other backups listed on the depth chart, then he certainly isn’t the answer as a handcuff in fantasy or even real football.

THREATS

Even though recency bias has him as a perceived liability, Fournette is the biggest threat to Armstead’s long-term player value. The Jaguars drafted him fourth overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. They invested heavy draft capital in him, and they want to utilize him as their workhorse back, limiting touches for the rest of the running backs on the roster.

Armstead is just a fifth-round pick and the Jaguars won’t think twice about drafting another running back or picking one up in free agency if they feel like they need to bolster the depth chart. On top of that, the landscape in college football is riddled with talented running back prospects and those players will eventually head their way to the NFL.

The Jaguars are not going to ignore the pool of running back talent that’s trickling into the league. Sooner or later they are going to bring in a talented back who will immediately compete for touches. When you’re a fifth-round pick the last thing you want your team to do is bring in more competition.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

He will spend his first training camp proving himself to the coaching staff and competing against the running back gatekeepers for the second-string running back spot. It’s necessary that he comes out of the gate strong in order for him to quickly climb the depth chart. If he doesn’t, then he might linger as the team’s third running back on the roster. After all, he’s still just a fifth-round pick, the team has almost zero draft capital invested in him, making him easily dispensable.

Expect him to be the team’s RB2 or RB3 on the depth chart. The second-string role isn’t going to be gift wrapped for him. He will need to earn that spot in camp for him to be Fournette’s handcuff. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him receive a handful of carries per game during the back half of the season.

His fantasy potential is predicated on Fournette’s availability. If Fournette is in the lineup soaking up the workload then touches are going to be slim. If he’s out with an injury for a few weeks, then we could see Armstead toting the rock for the Jaguars.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Armstead’s long-term player value will be impacted by what he does in the short-term. He needs to get busy quick if he wants to make an impact in the league. He can’t be a slow starter in camp and have a sloth-like development. Fifth-round picks don’t get that luxury. Also, he needs to prove his worth during his rookie season to prevent the team from spending another draft pick on a running back next year.

Fournette is signed through 2020 and the team could pick up his fifth-year option, making him the Jaguars’ running back through 2021. From there it’s up in the air whether they decide to resign him, so this situation might last several years and could prevent Armstead from ever breaking out.

An alternate timeline to explore is the possibility that the Jaguars move away from Fournette in the next few years. If he has a bad season, gets injured or is suspended, the team could cut ties after this season since he would only account for just $4.4 million in dead cap space.

This is a scenario that doesn’t seem likely, but it would be a big-time boost to Armstead’s player value if he is the team’s current RB2. That’s why it’s important that he gets busy early, proves himself and becomes a key part to the offensive game plan. If he’s running well and busting out long gains, then the team might want to explore this option to save cap space.

The obvious timeline of events that could occur is the one that happens to all late-round picks and that’s him hanging around the back of the depth chart to finally get supplanted by a more talented back in the future. A lot of people are going to bang the drum of him being a breakout candidate due to this situation, but this is also very likely to happen.

Armstead isn’t a world class talent and the league treats running backs as dispensable commodities. The world goes around just like the NFL’s rotation of running back talent and if he doesn’t perform during his first couple of years in the league, then he too could fall by the wayside.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

His running style is more comparable to Thomas Rawls. However, Armstead is faster and runs with more juice in his legs. Assertiveness and toughness are their comparable traits. Both backs run like a ball of knives. They find the hole and quickly plow through the running lane for extra yardage. This is important because it’s a trait that could allow Armstead to see the field sooner than later.

The ability to find the open running lane aids their ability to get to the hole and allows them to gain yards in chunks. It’s a key factor to any running back’s success and one of the reasons why Rawls was able to be productive as a below average athlete.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

When we take a look at DLF’s Rookie ADP, Armstead is falling to the top of the fourth-round with an ADP of 36.90. On average he’s the 13th running back selected off the board behind Darwin Thompson, Rodney Anderson, and Bryce Love. That said, he’s a late-round flier in rookie drafts and should be treated as a roster stash.

Running backs drafted behind him and worthy of consideration include Dexter Williams, Trayveon Williams, Mike Weber and James Williams. This is the area of the draft where high upside running back fliers get drafted. Unless Fournette gets injured this off-season, this is where Armstead belongs.

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Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.