Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Josh Oliver, TE JAC

Name: Josh Oliver

Position: Tight End

Pro Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

College Team: San Jose State Spartans

Draft Status: Round three, 69th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

• Height: 6’4 5’8”
• Weight: 249 pounds
• Arms: 33 1/2”
• Hands: 10 3/4”
• Wingspan: 78 7/8”
• 40-Yard Dash: 4.63
• 3-Cone Drill: 7.21
• 20-Yard Shuttle: 4.47
• Vertical Jump: 34.0”
• Broad Jump: 9’9” (117 inches)
• Bench Press: 22 reps

STRENGTHS

• Smooth and fluid athlete
• Enormous hands, giant catch radius, and above-average body control
• Terrific at tracking the ball downfield and has great ball skills
• Finished second among tight ends in the FBS this season in receptions (56)
• Significant improvement as a route runner every year; runs close to the complete tree
• Focal point of his offense; functioned as a chain mover and red zone threat
• Impressive work ethic and a consummate professional

WEAKNESSES

• Doesn’t separate particularly well
• Not as athletic on tape as he ran at the combine
• Suffered from concentration drops
• Wasn’t elusive after the catch
• Not very successful as a blocker, but shows upside in this area

OPPORTUNITIES

Josh Oliver should have the opportunity to earn playing time right away. The Jaguars only have Geoff Swaim and James O’Shaughnessy on the depth chart, and Oliver is by far the superior threat as a pass-catcher. O’Shaughnessy led all Jacksonville tight ends last season with 24 receptions for 214 scoreless yards.

There is also reason to be optimistic about the production a tight end in this offense can put up.

John DeFilippo has coordinated two offenses in his career (2015 Cleveland and 2018 Minnesota), and both teams produced a top-ten tight end for fantasy purposes (Gary Barnidge and Kyle Rudolph, respectively). Barnidge was never much of a threat until that breakout season, and Rudolph was in a very crowded offense himself.

So it’s a limited sample size, but we’ve seen DeFilippo’s offenses target the position heavily. We also now have Nick Foles under center. Foles has targeted tight ends a lot in his career as well, eclipsing the 30% target share mark in each of the past three seasons.

The Jaguars have the third most vacated targets from last year’s team (257, 49.0%) and fourth-highest percentage of air yards available (1,564, 43.5%). Jacksonville also didn’t add anyone meaningful in the draft and the only player of note they signed in free agency was Chris Conley. So essentially, if Oliver can carve out playing time, there should be a significant role for him.

THREATS

There are few true threats at the tight end position on the depth chart, but despite that, there’s one thing worth mentioning. Oliver is a high-effort blocker, but the results are varied, and he needs to become more consistent in this area. Because of this, he may not see the field as much as he should in his rookie season. Swaim is by far the superior blocker, and teams prioritize inline blocking at the line of scrimmage with their tight ends.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

We’ve seen tight ends in recent years produce immediately upon entering the NFL. While Oliver’s upside is as a pass-catcher, he may still be too raw as a blocker to be a full-time starter. A part-time player in a run-heavy offense isn’t really a player I’m particularly interested in in the short-term, but there is a chance he can carve out a significant role, and if he does, he could be a steal. Head coach Doug Marrone is already impressed with what he’s seen from his rookie tight end.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

As a pure pass-catching tight end, Oliver has some decent upside. I’m not convinced he’ll ever be a perennial TE1, but I think he could settle into the TE10-15 range if all goes well. Given his current cost and the potential for him to produce this season, he is a worthwhile investment at his meager price right now. I like the player, but he would be a guy I would look to flip mid-season if he’s producing at a high level.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

Vance McDonald. McDonald and Oliver share quite a few similarities. The two players were both the focal points of their collegiate offenses and lined up all over the formation, but did the majority of their damage out of the slot. Both are athletic players who have huge catch radii and terrific ball skills. McDonald’s potential (that we’ve still yet to see for a full season) is how I view Oliver’s ceiling as a prospect.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

Oliver is our 44th-ranked rookie, with one ranker placing him as high as 34th and one as low as 50th. He is the TE5, and no ranker has him rated lower than sixth.

Because Oliver isn’t a premier prospect, there is significant variance in where he has been selected in rookie drafts. In May Rookie ADP mock drafts, he was the TE7 and the 35th player selected on average. In actual rookie drafts in the month of June on MyFantasyLeague, Oliver was the 36th player off the board, starting as early as 28th but occasionally falling all the way to 44th. In superflex drafts, Oliver falls to 38th and is usually available in the fourth round.

In each of the last two seasons, I’ve passed on the tight ends going in the first-round range in rookie drafts in favor of a lower-ranked player at the same position. Two years ago, I prioritized landing George Kittle in most of my drafts. Last year, it was Chris Herndon I tried getting on all my rosters. This year, that player is Josh Oliver.