Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Irv Smith Jr, TE MIN

Name: Irv Smith Jr

Position: Tight End

Pro Team: Minnesota Vikings

College Team: Alabama

Draft Status: Round two, 50th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

• Height: 6’ 2”
• Weight: 242 pounds
• Arms: 31 1/2”
• Wingspan: 74 7/8″
• Hands: 9 1/2”
• 40-Yard Dash: 4.63 seconds
• Vertical Jump: 32.5”
• Broad Jump: 110.0”
• Bench Press: 19 reps
• 3-Cone Drill: 7.32 seconds
• 20-Yard Shuttle: 4.33 seconds
• 60-Yard Shuttle: 12.44 seconds

STRENGTHS

• Versatility; comfortable in both Y and F roles; can line up in slot, as H-back, out wide and in backfield
• Willing and enthusiastic blocker; finishes blocks by taking defenders all the way to the ground
• Decent speed; can run the seam, get open downfield, and find open space on short passes underneath
• Creates yards after catch with shifty moves and by regularly making the first guy miss; physicality
• Reliable hands; goes up and after the ball and rarely body catches or drops
• Gets to the sticks; excellent field awareness facilitates moving the chains

WEAKNESSES

• Limited experience; only played in 24 games at the college level
• Lacks ideal size; needs additional upper body strength and mass to compete at the pro level
• Must learn to take what the defense gives him, when to get down, avoid overextending plays
• Below average catch radius; contested catch skills questionable

OPPORTUNITIES

New offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, a finalist for the Browns’ head coach position before they decided to go with Freddie Kitchens, has been with the Vikings for 13 years coaching running backs, quarterbacks and . . . tight ends. To say that he is looking forward to having both Kyle Rudolph and ISJ at his disposal, not to mention the rest of the well-known fantasy point producing playmakers in purple, would be a gross understatement. He is designing a new offense that he states will be “physical,” in line with head coach Mike Zimmer’s expressed desire.

Two tight end sets are all the rage in the NFL, at least for teams that have the talent and chutzpah to utilize such schemes. Kirk Cousins is focused on getting to the next level, and working hard at creating more big plays.

Moreover, the Vikings’ strength of schedule significantly favors the pass game over the run game for 2019 (see charts in linked article provided courtesy of Sharp Football Analysis). This is not to say that the team will make fewer rush attempts than last year (the opposite is equally possible), but that the offense is likely to be more successful through the air, finding softer defenses when targeting receivers than when toting the rock in the ground game. These facts bode well for Smith to achieve a reasonably productive start to his career even with Rudolph as the lead dog at tight end.

THREATS

On June 11th, Rudolph and the Vikings announced their four-year, $36 million dollar contract extension securing the experienced (but not quite elite) tight end’s services for the foreseeable future. Many rookie drafts have already taken place, and a lot of dynasty players with newly-minted rookie shares in Smith anguished over this development, having hoped that the rampant Rudolph trade rumors would come to fruition.

The fact is that the youngest player of the 2019 NFL Draft has an excellent mentor and teammate to learn from and work with, rather than being thrust into a starting role he has too little experience to flourish in yet. Despite recent modest decline in production, the Vikings get more years of Rudolph’s consistently top-12 production. The contract is structured in a way that the team can get out of it in two to three years without too much trouble anyway. Smith’s talent and draft capital make him the clear future at the position in Minnesota. Rudolph’s extension may try the patience of dynasty team owners rostering Smith, but the rookie and the NFL team will be better for it.

Given the typical development timeline for tight end development at the professional level, drafting a young player at the position is most often an exercise in delayed gratification. Rudolph’s continued presence should be viewed not as a threat, but as a planned-for transition to the ISJ era that is certainly coming.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

The Vikings will feature Rudolph as the lead TE while facilitating Smith’s development, easing him into the lineup once the regular season begins. It’s probable, particularly in light of Smith’s intelligence, willingness, athleticism, and versatility, that he will be given more chances to shine as the season wears on. The newly installed offense will have the Vikings using more 12 personnel, giving the rookie snaps he needs to further his development. A 30-40 catch year is very possible, with 400 total yards and 3 touchdowns reasonable to expect for 2019.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

As noted above, the ISJ era is coming. Smith is a big part of why the 2019 class is generally recognized as deeper than usual at the tight end position.

Presuming his pedigree of athleticism (both his father and an uncle played tight end professionally) combined with his humble work ethic leads to a reasonably timely adaptation to the rigors of the NFL, and anticipating he will add the necessary strength and mass to increase his utility as a blocker, his core talent and situation portends top-20 production within two to three years, and several years of top-12 production after that. Rudolph has, potentially, several years left of quality play, but given his age and the Vikings’ cap issue stretching into the next few years, Smith will take over in due course.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

Comparisons run the gamut from Delanie Walker to Trey Burton to a healthy Jordan Reed. The most favorable comparison, however, is made by NFL Analyst Lance Zierlein.

He said: “Smith is still green in terms of overall experience, which shows up in run-blocking and route-running, but he has plenty of talent and is likely to get much better in both areas. He has combination tight end talent but really flashes as a move blocker at fullback or wingback spots.

“His buildup speed sets him apart as a big, field-stretching option and once he gets rolling after the catch. OJ Howard was bigger, and a better athlete, but like Howard, Smith offers Pro Bowl potential as a well-rounded tight end prospect.”

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

Smith is our 21st ranked rookie, with an overall ADP of 132.83. He is locked into the rookie TE3 position to date, though Packers rookie tight end Jace Sternberger is not far behind, ranked 24th on our rookie list, with an overall ADP of 152.17.

He is a consensus late second round rookie pick in standard dynasty formats, drafted 23rd on average (21st in Superflex format) according to our 2019 MFL Rookie ADP taken from actual rookie drafts on MyFantasyLeague.