Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Will Grier, QB CAR

Bruce Matson Posted On June 12, 2019

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Name: Will Grier

Position: Quarterback

Pro Team: Carolina Panthers

College Team: West Virginia Mountaineers

Draft Status: Round three, 100th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

Height: 6’2’’
Weight: 217 pounds
Arms: 31 1/2’’
Hands: 9 3/8’’
40-Yard Dash: 4.84 seconds
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical Jump: 34
Broad Jump: 112
3-Cone Drill: 7.09
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.28

STRENGTHS

An accurate passer who can fit the ball into tight windows
Quick release
Not afraid to attack the defense and push the ball downfield
Uses his eyes to move safeties and defensive backs
His 59 MPH ball velocity led all quarterbacks at the Scouting Combine
Sees the field well which allows him to take advantage of busted coverages and mismatches presented by the defense
Has touch on short, intermediate, and deep passes

WEAKNESSES

Alters throwing mechanics when pressured
Doesn’t have elite-level arm strength
Throwing accuracy drops when scrambling
Gunslinger mentality can lead to bad decisions
Needs to improve pocket awareness

OPPORTUNITIES

After transferring from Florida, Grier passed for 7,354 yards and 71 touchdowns during his junior and senior seasons for West Virginia. He was one of the most accurate passers in college football during that time span, completing 65.7 percent of his passes. According to Pro Football Focus, Grier had an adjusted completion percentage of 76.2 against the blitz. In just two seasons, he finished third all-time in passing for West Virginia.

The Carolina Panthers drafted Grier in the third round of this year’s draft as the expected backup to franchise quarterback Cam Newton. The offense is loaded with athletic talent. DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel and Christian McCaffrey pack a lot of speed, giving Grier the opportunity to play in a system that is maturing to be one of the more explosive offenses in the league.

From a financial perspective, Newton’s contract is set to expire after the 2020 season. Sometime between now and then the Panthers will need to make the decision on whether or not they are going to re-sign him. Newton has been the face of the franchise for so long that it’s hard to imagine the team not extending him to a new deal.

The one variable at play is Newton’s long-term viability. He played through a shoulder injury that ultimately caused him to prematurely end a 2019 campaign after week 15 and underwent surgery to fix the issue this off-season. Although reports seem to be good, we won’t know until he takes the field if he’s 100 percent back to full health.

Somewhere down the line, Grier could get the opportunity to play meaningful snaps if Newton goes down with another injury. Newton’s style of play could cause this to happen sooner than expected. If Grier plays well and looks the part, then he could cause a quarterback controversy in Carolina.

THREATS

Newton is his main threat. He is the franchise quarterback and the team would like to remain consistent and keep him on the roster for as long as possible. He’s also one of the best quarterbacks in the league and starting QBs don’t grow on trees. Finding a replacement for Newton would be a very tough task.

Newton is going to command most of the reps in training camp which might hinder Grier’s development – he may not be able to take the necessary step forward for the coaching staff to trust him as the team’s starting quarterback if the opportunity does arise for him.

Grier wasn’t a bulletproof prospect coming out of college. He does have some issues with his throwing mechanics that he needs to address before the Panthers, or any other NFL promotes him to a starting quarterback role. His career could be in jeopardy if he doesn’t acclimate to the NFL game. This is a threat for all young quarterback prospects.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

We have to limit our expectations for Grier during the first couple of years in the league. He’s going to be playing second fiddle to Newton for at least the next few seasons if not the majority of his career. The starting role isn’t going to be handed to him and he’s going to need some luck to fall his way in order for him to even sniff the starting lineup.

During this time, we will want to watch how Grier plays in preseason before we make any assumptions about his long-term viability. If he plays exceptionally well, we could see him get work sooner than later. Not performing when the opportunities are granted will significantly hurt his chances of moving up the depth chart or getting traded into a favorable situation later in his career.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Everything is predicated on Newton’s tenure. It’s highly likely that the team is going to extend his contract causing him to finish his career as a Panther. He will need to experience a large drop off in play before we can consider Grier as a replacement.

That being said, Grier will either be a career backup, or he will develop to the point where the Panthers will either have to make him the starter or cash in on their investment by trading him to another team. Like I said before, opportunities will eventually come his way if he plays well in training camp and in preseason.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

Player comparisons are used to provide an example of how a player looks like on the field. It’s not used to predict how a player’s career will play out. It’s a tool to help readers visualize the playstyle of a certain player. I’m prefacing the context on how I use player comparisons because I don’t want to set an unreachable expectation for Grier.

He compares to Baker Mayfield in a lot of ways. Both quarterbacks have gunslinger mentalities and are not scared to fit the football into tight windows. These are two very accurate passers who can get the ball out quickly. On top of their similar skill sets, Mayfield and Grier play with some extra confidence that you don’t see with most quarterbacks.

The big difference between the two quarterbacks is that Mayfield is better at all phases. They have a similar look and they do similar things, but the former number one overall pick has more talent. I’m not saying Grier can’t reach Mayfield’s level of play, but Mayfield is currently on a different level.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

After looking at DLF’s Rookie ADP, Grier is falling to the later portion of the fourth round in rookie drafts with a 46.40 average draft position. He’s routinely the fifth quarterback off the board behind Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, and Daniel Jones. Other players being drafted in his range are Josh Oliver, Hunter Renfrow, Qadree Ollison, and Myles Gaskin.

Obviously, he receives a value bump in superflex and 2QB leagues. When we take a look at DLF’s superflex ADP, we see Grier getting selected around the end of the second round with a 24.67 average draft position. This is a fair price point considering it might be a few years before we receive a return on our investment.

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Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.