Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Riley Ridley, WR CHI

Bruce Matson

Name: Riley Ridley

Position: Wide Receiver

Pro Team: Chicago Bears

College Team: Georgia Bulldogs

Draft Status: Round four, 126th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8xwzOgnDh4

COMBINE REVIEW

  • Height: 6’1’’
  • Weight: 199 pounds
  • Hands: 10 ¼’’
  • 40-Yard Dash: 4.58
  • Bench Press: 13
  • Vertical Jump: 30 ½’’
  • Broad Jump: 124’’
  • 3-Cone Drill: 7.22
  • 20-Yard Shuttle: 4.28

STRENGTHS

  • Very detailed route runner and can run a full route tree
  • Strong hands allow him to pluck the ball out of the air with ease
  • Physical while the ball is in the air and won’t get pushed out of position
  • Can catch the ball at its highest point
  • Capable of fighting through press coverage
  • Won’t get knocked off his route by the defensive back
  • Physical run blocker

WEAKNESSES

  • Lacks top end speed
  • Doesn’t accelerate well off the line of scrimmage
  • Underwhelming athlete
  • Doesn’t create much separation out of his breaks
  • Wasn’t productive at the college level

OPPORTUNITIES

The best thing that ever happened to Ridley was that he wasn’t over drafted and fell to the fourth round to the Chicago Bears. Expectations won’t be out of control for him and he has enough draft capital to allow him to see enough opportunities to become successful.

The Bears added Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller to the roster last year, but they still needed to add talent to the passing game. Injuries caused Robinson to miss some games last year and like most rookie wide receivers, Miller had a slow start to the season. Mitchell Trubisky missed two games last year, too, allowing backup quarterback Chase Daniel to get some playing time.

The infusion of Ridley into the offense will create another dimension in the passing game. He is already drawing praise from the coaching staff from his performance in the rookie minicamp. Ridley will get the chance to compete for playing time as early as his rookie season. He could be the team’s WR2 if he can supplant Miller to play on the opposite side of the field of Robinson.

THREATS

Robinson is the team’s alpha receiver. He’s going to soak up a large portion of the targets. He led the team last year with a 22-percent target share. The Bears drafted Anthony Miller in the second round of the 2018 draft. He’s still in the developmental stages of his career, but if he hits his potential he will require a large share of the targets.

Another player to worry about is Taylor Gabriel. He saw 18 percent of the targets last year and 1,049 air yards. He’s the team’s deep threat and will command the downfield targets. If things fall through with him, the Bears picked up Emanuel Hall as an undrafted free agent who was one of the best deep threats in this year’s draft class. The Bears want to implement speed in their passing game and they are more than equipped to stretch the field.

Trey Burton is another threat for targets. He received a 15-percent target share last year which was fourth highest on the team. With a 7.7 average depth of target, he is Trubisky’s short to intermediate passing target.

It’s hard for a young receiver prospect to get a large enough workload to be productive when the team has a talented satellite back to siphon away the targets. Tarik Cohen saw 86 targets last year and was a key piece to the passing game. His role in the offense will make it hard for some of the developmental wide receivers to see a large enough target share to breakout.

There’s a lot of competition for targets in Chicago. It might take a year or two for Ridley to become fantasy relevant. Attrition would have to run it’s course before he becomes a key contributor to the team.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

He should flash some of his talents during his rookie season. There are going to be times where he looks like he’s on the verge of breaking out, but it’s unlikely that he will command a large enough target share to be a consistent producer in fantasy. His rookie season will more than likely start off slow and he should pick up steam during the back half the season.

Ridley’s dynasty value will increase if he finishes his rookie season with some promise. If it looks like he can carve out a role early and can field some targets on a consistent basis then he might sneak into the top-100 in startup drafts this time next year.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

He’s going to regularly be on the field for the Bears. He might not receive a lot of targets but he should have some moments of greatness. His dynasty value is predicated on workload and whether or not he will get enough opportunities to succeed. He doesn’t have the speed or acceleration to score on splash plays, so he will be a target dependent asset in fantasy.

During the course of his career, he has a good chance at carving a role as the WR3 or even the WR2 on the team. The length of Robinson’s tenure with the franchise could dictate Ridley’s workload in the offense. Robinson is signed with the team through 2020, but the Bears could easily cut him at the end of this season since his dead cap figure will drop to just $2 million.

Same thing with Gabriel. He’s signed with the team through 2021, but his dead cap drops to $2 million at the end of this season. The team could easily part ways from him if he doesn’t perform to expectations.

There’s more ambiguity on the Bears’ wide receiver depth chart than what appears on the surface. If Ridley plays well and the chips fall in the right spot, then he could potentially be one of the team’s leading receivers in the next few years.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

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Ridley’s style of play is remarkably similar to how Allen Hurns plays the game. They are both savvy technical route runners who have strong hands at the catch point. They are both below average athletes who win on the field with strategic nuance. Like Hurns, Riley should flash potential but will more than likely never be a consistent high-end fantasy producer.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

According to DLF’s Rookie ADP, Ridley has a 34.30 ADP, which makes him available in the late-third round of rookie drafts. He’s also the 15th wide receiver off the board, directly behind Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin and Miles Boykin in ADP.

I think this is a good spot to draft Ridley. He’s virtually free at this point in the draft and he’s talented enough to carve out a role with his team and develop into a flex option in fantasy. I wasn’t high on him going into the draft but he’s more than suitable at his current price point.

bruce matson