What an eventful off-season it has been so far this year! As we inch closer to the NFL Draft, now is a great time to review recent risers and fallers in the dynasty landscape. We will analyze some of the biggest storylines of the off-season and see how they affected April ADP compared to March ADP for single quarterback leagues. Trading usually picks up right around rookie drafts so this is a great opportunity to get ahead of the game and make some deals now.
1. Giants trade Odell Beckham to the Browns
Back on March 112th, the New York Giants traded one of the brightest stars in the NFL and the dynasty landscape to the Cleveland Browns. This sent shockwaves across the dynasty landscape, affecting multiple players.
RISER: Odell Beckham, WR CLE
March ADP: 8.33
April ADP: 3.5
Beckham jumps right back up to where he really should have already been, in the discussion for the second player off the board in startups behind Saquon Barkley. He still seems to be obtainable as I have seen him recently traded in a couple of leagues, but make no mistake it is going to take a lot to acquire him.
My take: Beckham has always been a buy/hold for me, even while others worried about injuries and quarterback play, and remains a buy/hold going forward.
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RISER: Evan Engram, TE NYG
March ADP: 63.5
April ADP: 51.67
Engram has been outstanding without Beckham on the field. With the latter shipped out of town, many are expecting a bounce-back season for Engram and his value has risen as a result. Congratulations to anyone who bought or held onto him for his talent and were not scared off by his situation. Much like Beckham, Jr., Engram provides a great lesson why it is better to bet on talent than situation because situations change so quickly in the NFL.
My take: I will admit I was short-sighted about Engram’s future outlook. Surely the Giants would not trade Beckham after he signed a massive new contract, right? He was their wide receiver of the future, right? Wrong! Lesson learned. I do think Engram is now fairly priced as the fourth tight end off the board behind Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Zach Ertz.
RISER: Baker Mayfield, QB CLE
March ADP: 79.83
April ADP: 58.67
Mayfield was already on the rise but the addition of one of the best wide receivers in the game sent him skyrocketing. In April ADP, he sits as the third quarterback off the board, behind Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck.
My take: I am a huge fan of Mayfield, but it might be time to test his market in your league. His price already reflects most of his upside and it might be prudent to trade for another quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, or Carson Wentz plus another piece on top.
2. Free Agent Signings
Free agency often generates many opportunities for players to see their dynasty values spike just from signing a new contract. This year was no different as many players saw their values increase significantly this off-season.
RISER: Mark Ingram, RB BAL
March ADP: 92.83
April ADP: 81.5
Ingram has a chance to be the lead running back in a run-heavy offensive scheme in Baltimore. While he will likely see more carries in Baltimore than he would have in New Orleans, the offense he is leaving behind figures to be much more proficient. This opens up Ingram’s range of outcomes this season.
My take: Ingram was never really a player I invested much into but really should have after looking back on how productive he has been. His is fairly priced today but is still a good addition for a contending team. It will likely take a late first-round rookie pick to acquire him.
FALLER: Jerick McKinnon, RB SFO
March ADP: 81.33
April ADP: 99.5
McKinnon’s dynasty value has been on a roller coaster ride the past few years. The Tevin Coleman signing hurts his value but might actually affect his on-field play less than we think. San Francisco was likely to run a multiple-back rotation most weeks anyway.
My take: The perfect time to sell McKinnon was a year ago. If you are still holding any shares it will be tough to sell now. At the same time, I am not really looking to buy him anywhere either.
RISER: Carlos Hyde, RB KCC
March ADP: 212.67
April ADP: 116.5
Hyde was nearly an afterthought as he was traded to Jacksonville and saw limited playing time there. Him signing with Kansas City offers immediate hope he can carve out a role.
My take: Kansas City was probably one of the best landing spots for Hyde. Building off the hype surrounding him without any results thus far, I would look to sell Hyde if you can get an early second-round rookie pick in return. I also prefer other veteran running backs going in a similar range, such as Latavius Murray and Lamar Miller.
RISER: Latavius Murray, RB NOS
March ADP: 235.67
April ADP: 127.5
Speaking of Latavius Murray, he landed in an awesome spot as well. He has the potential to be a flex player for your team nearly every week with the potential to be a top-12 running back any game Alvin Kamara does not play.
My take: Even with the 108 spot jump, I would argue Murray is still undervalued. He could produce similar numbers to what Ingram did the past two years with Kamara. This would make him a great value. I have seen him recently bought for third-round rookie picks. I would pay any second-rounder for him.
FALLER: TJ Yeldon, RB FA
March ADP: 127.83
April ADP: 188
The most surprising outcome of the free agency period so far might be the lack of interest in TJ Yeldon. He is a former second-round NFL pick who has produced decently when given enough touches. Many figured Yeldon would have had multiple teams interested in him this spring. Instead, it has been nothing but crickets so far. Perhaps he is waiting to sign until he sees how the NFL draft plays out. Even if true, the lack of news has the dynasty community worried.
My take: I would still buy Yeldon for any third-round rookie pick and possibly for a late second-rounder. There are still some good landing spots for him to sign into, such as the Buccaneers and Bears. Maybe he ends up back on the Jaguars when all is said and done.
RISER: Jared Cook, TE NOS
March ADP: 195.67
April ADP: 135
Going to the New Orleans Saints can do wonders for your dynasty stock and Jared Cook’s is no different. He was a great value play last year and could very well be again this year.
RISER: Mike Davis, RB CHI
March ADP: 239.33
April ADP: 141.5
An afterthought a month ago, Davis rose nearly 100 spots in April’s ADP after signing with the Bears and seeing them trade Jordan Howard. Davis has a chance to see a good amount of carries this year.
My take: I am guessing the Bears draft a running back this year. The question is, how early? Considering the Bears do not currently have any first or second-round picks this year, it is likely they do not make a huge investment at the position. However, the third and fourth rounds might be prime positions to take a running back. Maybe they take someone like Miles Sanders or Damien Harris. If they do, Davis’s value takes a big hit. I would try to see what I can get for him before that happens. You might be able to sell him for a second-rounder today.
3. Rookie fluctuation
Rookies can be volatile assets this time of year. They partake in the combine and pro-days, face scrutiny from scouts and analysts, and most are eventually drafted later this month. As you might expect, there were quite a few rookies who saw their values change significantly compared to a month ago. Below is a quick summary of the biggest rookie movers.
FALLER: DK Metcalf, WR Ole Miss
March ADP: 43.67
April ADP: 66.5
Metcalf was a quick riser after he blazed the 40-yard dash but has seen his value dip over the last few weeks with numerous analysts questioning his slow three-cone time and lack of production in college. Whether these concerns amount to anything remain to be seen.
My take: I am liking the slip in value. I was never quite ready to spend the first overall rookie pick on him with all of the risks in his profile, but I would be happy to spend a mid-first-round pick on him.
RISER: Miles Sanders, RB Penn State
March ADP: 88.5
April ADP: 68.33
Sanders’s rise is likely due to his impressive showing at the combine. With so few running backs testing well, Sanders stuck out in a good way. He had limited experience and production in college but still has a very intriguing skill set and profile.
My take: While he is no longer a great value in rookie drafts like he was before the combine, he is likely still going to be a target player of mine depending on his draft capital.
FALLER: David Montgomery, RB Iowa State
March ADP: 62
April ADP: 72.83
Montgomery was ranked highly among rookies before his poor showing at the combine. Nobody expected him to run fast but it appears many did not expect him to run as slow as he did. I am still skeptical of how his game will translate to the NFL due to his lack of athleticism. Being selected on day two of the NFL draft will help his outlook.
My take: I would need Montgomery’s value to slip even more for him to become a target player of mine. I could change my tune if he was selected on day two of the NFL draft.
FALLER: Kelvin Harmon, WR North Carolina State
March ADP: 72
April ADP: 87.5
Like Montgomery, Harmon’s poor athleticism showed up at the combine and likely contributed to his fall in ADP. Once considered a potential round one wide receiver in the NFL draft, he is looking more like a day two selection. As a result, he has slipped all the way to the ninth rookie according to April ADP.
My take: Harmon’s price is much more palatable now. He could end up being a good value pick if he ends up slipping to the late first round of rookie drafts.
FALLER: Noah Fant, TE Iowa
March ADP: 83.5
April ADP: 97.67
This is actually one I cannot quite put my finger on. Fant destroyed the combine and tested at historical levels. He is also often being mocked in the first round of the NFL draft.
My take: If Fant’s value stays this low he will be one of my favorite targets in rookie drafts.
RISER: Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma
March ADP: 174
April ADP: 135.17
The Kyler Murray hype train is picking up steam. After many publicly doubted his size (and many still do), his chances of being the first player selected in the NFL draft are looking more and more likely. Whether it is the Arizona Cardinals or another team making the pick remains to be seen.
My take: If Murray is the first pick in the NFL draft, he is likely going to be the first pick in many superflex rookie drafts. Compared to veteran quarterbacks, Murray actually has a relatively high price already.
4. Other News and Notes
The dynasty community was sent into a whirlwind when news broke that Tyreek Hill was part of an investigation into reports of battery and child abuse. As a result, some were able to acquire Hill for much cheaper than his normal asking price. Time will tell if those were good deals for the buyers or sellers. As expected, Hill’s dynasty value took a dip, dropping from 10.5 in March to 22.33 in April. The more surprising finding is Sammy Watkins’s ADP value actually went down in April. I am aware of his injury history, but the former fourth overall pick has a legitimate chance to be the top wide receiver for Patrick Mahomes. I cannot tell you what to do with Tyreek Hill as I am unsure myself (for the record I am probably on the buying side) but I can tell you to go buy Sammy Watkins if his owner values him as a late-first-round rookie pick or less.
A player saying they need more surgeries this offseason is certainly ominous. After Doug Baldwin said this, his dynasty stock took a major hit. His ADP only dropped 7.17 spots in April, but it seems like his trade market took a bigger hit. Using our trade finder, I found Baldwin was recently sold for each of the following:
I have also heard stories of him going for even less. Reading into the report suggests his upcoming surgeries are likely for a sports hernia. Although all surgeries are serious, this is potentially better news than if it was another knee or shoulder surgery. He is a nice cheap buy right now who could produce solid production for your lineups.
After coming off a productive and very efficient season last year, Tyler Lockett continues to climb the ADP ranks. Some of this might be related to the uncertainty surrounding Baldwin as well. Lockett is in sell territory for me, having a similar ADP value to Courtland Sutton, AJ Brown and DK Metcalf. Quarterback Russell Wilson also saw his value take a dip, although he is still the sixth quarterback off the board. He remains a solid value while nearly everyone rushes out to buy the youngsters at the position.
Thanks for reading along. I hope the data presented above helps provide you with some action items to work on this offseason. The best part of dynasty leagues is there is always more work to be done and ways to make your team stronger. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter or in the comments section below.