Dynasty League Football is home to a plethora of tools and resources for dynasty owners to utilize and leverage. One of many, though one perhaps most recognized, is Average Draft Position (ADP). Specifically, every month DLF’s Ryan McDowell puts together ten rookie mock drafts in order to gauge community consensus on potential real rookie drafts.
Rookie draft ADP is certainly useful, but we all know that every rookie draft is different. Just because a rookie has an ADP of 4.3 does not mean he will be available even at the 1.03 pick in every rookie draft. Utilizing the actual results from all ten rookie mock drafts, we can actually chart out the likelihood of a prospect being available at each and every rookie pick.
I’ve been digesting rookie ADP this way for several months, and it seems the community enjoys this methodology. While I have been posting these visualizations for the first round only, as a DLF subscriber you have access to the results all rounds of rookie mock drafts. In this article series, we’ll go through each round and highlight key takeaways for each.
Before we begin, it’s important to quickly note that although ten mock drafts are a lot to draw conclusions from, it’s certainly not all-encompassing. You’ll find that many players have a “100%” or “0%” of being available at certain picks. This, of course, is not entirely true, but this exercise is incredibly valuable nonetheless. The results of these mock drafts are just a small microcosm of the community as a whole. We can expect the actual probabilities to be similar, though not exact, to the ones presented here.
Without further delay, let’s begin!
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Round One
- N’Keal Harry has taken the lead as the consensus 1.01 selection, going 1.01 in seven of the ten mock drafts.
- Hakeem Butler and DK Metcalf have incredibly similar probability distributions, indicating that they are the somewhat clear 1.02 and 1.03 after Harry.
- AJ Brown never went before 1.03 but only made it to 1.05 in two of ten mocks.
- Josh Jacobs was selected at every spot from 1.01 to 1.09 in the various mock drafts.
- There appears to be a tier drop at 1.10 after Darrell Henderson, indicated by the stark difference in probabilities between the Noah Fant and Henderson after the 1.09 pick.
Round Two
- Rodney Anderson and Marquise Brown each went before 2.01 in three out of the ten rookie mocks.
- TJ Hockenson was selected between 2.01 and 2.03 in seven out of ten drafts.
- Despite having an ADP in the middle of this second round, JJ Arcega-Whiteside was never selected after 2.09. All other players except Hockenson and Deebo Samuel were selected after 2.09 in at least one mock draft.
- There appears to be a tier drop after Andy Isabella, indicated by a stark difference in probability percentages.
- Nine of the twelve players in this round went before 2.01 at least once.
Round Three
- Miles Boykin and Emanuel Hall were selected before the 3.01 in three out of ten mock drafts.
- Terry McLaurin was selected before the 3.01 in two of ten mock drafts, but in the other eight, he was not selected before the 3.10.
- Benny Snell, Alex Barnes, Bryce Love, and Drew Lock were selected between the 3.01 and 3.12 in 70% or more of mock drafts. These four players appear to be clear third round prospects by consensus.
Round Four
- Every player in round four of ADP was selected before 4.01 at least once.
- Every player in round four of ADP was selected after 4.12 at least once except for Jace Sternberger.
- Devine Ozigbo was selected before 4.01 the most out of any player listed above at four times.
- Unsurprisingly, this round appears very nonuniform, as mock drafters’ selections vary greatly from draft-to-draft.
I hope you’ve enjoyed this different look at Rookie ADP. With ten mock drafts at our disposal, we’re able to do a lot more with ADP than simply look at the number. Each and every rookie draft is different. Understanding and viewing rookie mock drafts in this manner allows us to more appropriately maneuver to specific picks and know who might be available.
If you have any questions at all on anything presented above, feel free to comment below or reach out on Twitter @FFzinger! I hope you check back in May after the NFL Draft for an updated version of these charts. The NFL Draft cannot come soon enough.
[/am4show]
- Week 17 Positional Rankings - January 1, 2022
- Week 16 Positional Rankings - December 23, 2021
- Week 15 Positional Rankings - December 16, 2021
Really useful stuff.
This is awesome. Thank you!!
So nice. Thank you!
Very helpful. Thank you Michael.
I like this approach to using ADP. That being said, I find it a bit misleading at this point in time. Most people will draft rookies following the NFL draft.
There’s so much potential variance in value due to landing spots this year. For example, there’s a good chance that Harry ends up somewhere worse than two other WRs and will end up being consistently available at the 1.03.
Great template but it’s too much of a guessing game right now to use it fruitfully for me.
I love this but feel it will be much much more useful after the draft. I’m not a Harry guy and I have 1.1. That being said the right landing spot could make me a believer but not without knowing landing spots
This is fantastic. Please do one once the dust has settled after the NFL draft!
While useful, I’m a little skeptical. If your using the same 10 mockers every month then their rankings are likely to not vary much. A much larger pool of drafts may have a larger variance. Just based on past drafts in my leagues, with the same rules, I’ve seen numerous players go 1 or more rounds (not just picks) different +/- from ADP’s. Add in leagues that allow free agents and that skews things even more. Best advice is, if the player you really want is available at your pick, go ahead and take them. Don’t let the few or 10 😉 sway your opinion.
Man, I wish this could be updated for draft season
