Twitter Observations: Week 17

Michael Moore Posted On December 31, 2019

Fantasy football, like any sport, can be random. In one of the championship games I was lucky to make this season, I won by a razor-thin margin of 1.24 points. This in a league where you start 22 players – 11 on offense; 11 on defense – and must start DTs and CBs. Just one player missing a catch or tackle would have been the difference. But perhaps the most random performance on either team was my defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. Not only did he notch just the second sack of his rookie season but he, a defensive tackle, caught one of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s four touchdowns in week 16. I couldn’t make up that story line if I tried.

The above anecdote is completely random and will probably never happen again. However, teams that make the fantasy playoffs got there because they, and their players, were consistently good throughout the season. And even though this season is ending, the players below below could be the difference for dynasty teams next year.

A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.

Lock and Roll

https://twitter.com/Broncos/status/1211677171925676032?s=20

In covering Drew Lock this week, it also gave me an excuse to post the very popular tweet of him grooving by himself on the bench. He looks like he’s having a good time and why not? He went 4-1 as a starter down the stretch for a Denver team whose 2019 season ended a long time ago. He threw a decent seven touchdowns but only turned it over four times total. As for his supporting cast, they all continued to be fantasy-relevant. Philip Lindsay had a 100-yard game, Courtland Sutton saw ten targets in two of Lock’s five starts and rookie tight end Noah Fant had one of his best games of the season under Lock.

Dynasty Impact: While there were certainly bright spots in Denver this season, I wouldn’t be in a rush to jump on the Bronco bandwagon. Lock is probably better than his current dynasty ADP of 24th but, more importantly, what do we do about the other Broncos? Running back Lindsay was the RB14 in weeks 1-12 before Lock was the starter, and just the RB28 after. Sutton was WR19 over the same span but WR28 after. I would keep Lindsay right where he is as his dynasty ADP is just 23rd among running backs. For Sutton, he’s up to 14th in dynasty ADP among receivers. That’s not high enough to sell this off-season but also not enough to buy until we know Lock can elevate his game.

The Ryan King

A few Dolphins nuggets on clean out day:

– Albert Wilson wants to return. He had a strong December. His $9.5M nongtd 2020 salary likely a factor in any return.
– Vince Biegel wants contract extension this offseason. He's a RFA.
– Players want Ryan Fitzpatrick back in 2020.

— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) December 30, 2019

Of all the surprises to come out of 2019, Ryan Fitzpatrick being fantasy-relevant may be the biggest. After a disastrous first month of the season, including being benched for Josh Rosen, Fitzmagic was fantasy’s sixth-highest scoring quarterback from week six on. No quarterback came cheaper while making a huge impact on fantasy teams besides Ryan Tannehill. And, in another show of randomness, he showed how clutch he was in the fantasy playoffs (weeks 15 and 16) by throwing for nearly 700 yards and six touchdowns.

Dynasty Impact: The Fitzpatrick story, as inspiring as it is, cannot last much longer. He’s 37 and not nearly on the same plane, talent-wise, as other older quarterbacks like Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Furthermore, it’s hard to see the Dolphins sticking with Fitzpatrick any further than the beginning of next season. After a complete tear down, including trading players still in their prime, it would be a complete reversal of the Dolphins planned re-start to stick with the veteran quarterback. Having Fitzpatrick this season was huge to dynasty teams (myself included) but this will be the extent of it.

From Wentz He Came

Crazy stat from the Fox broadcast: Carson Wentz is the first QB to hit 4000 passing yards in a season without a 500-yard wideout.

— greg smith (@gregsauce) December 30, 2019

While many might be disappointed in Carson Wentz’s performance this season, it was actually pretty typical despite the torrent of injuries to his receivers. His 63.9% completion percentage is on par with his career average of 63.8% while his 6.7 yards-per-attempt was only a shade under his 6.9 career average. He threw for over 4,000 and 27 touchdowns and finished as fantasy’s ninth-highest scoring quarterback while playing 16 games for the first time since his rookie season. Wentz, seemingly, was the only player on the Eagles offense not hit by the injury bug. All season, the Eagles injury report included starting linemen plus running back Jordan Howard towards the end of the season. At one point, the offense lost so many receivers that backup quarterback Josh McCown was warming up to play the position. The fact that Wentz turned in a QB1 fantasy season is a feat in of itself.

Dynasty Impact: As mentioned above, Wentz had a very Wentz-ian season yet he’s dropped three spots in dynasty ADP from the sixth QB in August to the ninth in December. If Wentz can pull off this kind of season with the plethora of injuries to his receivers, which still resulted in low-end QB1 numbers, this should be his baseline going forward. Still just 27, I would be buying Wentz at his current value as he’ll be getting Alshon Jeffery back to go along with the progression of 2018 second-round receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside. He’ll also continue to have tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert and emerging stud running back Miles Sanders. Unless the Eagles just suffer terrible injury luck again next year, Wentz is looking up.

Baker’s Mark

amazing stat line pic.twitter.com/asVq2LGEal

— charles (“you look good” – andy reid) mcdonald (@FourVerts) December 30, 2019

There may not have been a bigger disappointment this season than Baker Mayfield. For all the hype that actually started at the end of last season and only amplified after the Browns added Odell Beckham, Jr., we were left with a very ordinary fantasy quarterback. He barely eclipsed last seasons passing yard total, despite playing in two more games, to finish at 3,827. His touchdown total actually got worse, going from 27 last year to 22 this year while his interception total spiked 50% from 14 to 21. A sophomore slump isn’t uncommon but few could have predicted this much of a decline.

Dynasty Impact: Mayfield’s dynasty value will be one of the biggest questions of this off-season. After clocking in as high as the fourth QB in dynasty ADP this Summer, it’s down to the seventh QB as of December. He’s still being considered a low-end QB1 despite ending the fantasy season as a low-end QB2. For me, Mayfied can be considered to be in fantasy purgatory as current Mayfield owners don’t want to sell low, especially since the Browns will have a new (and improved?) play caller next year. Yet prospective Mayfield owners have no reason to risk a huge offer to get him.

Author
Recent Posts

Michael Moore

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Michael has played fantasy football for over 20 years when his mom funded his first team in the fourth grade. He’s contributed to various fantasy football publications and most recently spent five years writing for the Fantasy side of things at Pro Football Focus.