Last-Minute Gifts: Wide Receivers

Eric Hardter Posted On December 30, 2019

With week 17 in the books and another season behind us, what’s a dynasty aficionado to do? Hopefully, you’re able to bask in the warmth of a hard-won championship (or two…or three), but our work as owners is never done. At DLF our motto is “there is no off-season,” and as such I’m hoping to lay out some potential next steps as we navigate into the long, cold fantasy football-less months.

In that spirit, and taking the holidays into account, this mini-series seeks to explore some players who were able to show signs of fantasy viability (whether newly proven or resurgent), but still appear to be discounted per the DLF ADP (as of December 2019). In other words, these players have outperformed what would currently constitute their startup draft slot. So even though (most of) the fantasy championships are in the rearview, I want to provide my opinions on which players you can do a little last-minute shopping for!

Let’s continue with the wide receivers!

Note: All statistics correct as of the end of the fantasy season (week 16).

Terry McLaurin, WAS

ADP = WR27

2019 Player Rank = PPR WR25

Michael Gallup, DAL

ADP = WR29

2019 Player Rank = PPR WR29

Deebo Samuel, SF

ADP = WR37

2019 Player Rank = PPR WR36

I’m lumping the above three players together as they possess two major commonalities, which to me are ultimately tied together. The first is that all three are league neophytes, with McLaurin and Samuel about to conclude their rookie seasons, and Gallup preparing to finish up his second year in the league. The other similarity is that none of the three players have PPR rankings that far surpass their current December ADPs, which would seem to defeat the overall premise of this article as it relates to pouncing on price points. Nevertheless, I persist!

The main reason I believe the trio above warrants consideration is because typically when young players show fantasy viability early in their careers they tend to receive an artificial ADP bump that is directly tied to their age, and therefore their theoretical NFL longevity. While McLaurin, Gallup and Samuel are clearly appreciated by the dynasty masses, it’s not been to the point one might expect given the usual proclivity many owners have for youth on their rosters. I view this is a value red herring, and believe there still exists room for exponential value spike should these young pass catchers continue to perform.

To that point, McLaurin (should he play) has a shot at 1,000 yards as a rookie despite missing one game and accumulating only 93 targets, and has nearly 600 more yards than the next closest Redskins receiver. All told he has 21% of the team’s receptions, 31% of the receiving yards, and 41% of the receiving touchdowns. He’s done all this on what is inarguably the worst passing offense in the league by all major statistics.

Gallup has posted a productive second season, already surpassing 1,000 yards on just 105 targets, despite missing two games. He’s functioned as a field stretcher with 16.5 YPR, though he hasn’t shown much of a nose for the end zone to date (editor’s note: Gallup shut Eric up with three TDs in the finale!). He will likely play second fiddle as long as Amari Cooper is in town, but he is tied to one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Dak Prescott.

Samuel is a different type of receiver who does much of his work after the catch. Built like a running back with shiftiness to match, he has also unsurprisingly complemented his 700 receiving yards with 126 yards and two scores on the ground. A “slash” type player but with legit receiving chops, Samuel is proving to be everything we hoped for Cordarrelle Patterson.

Concluding here, each of these players has shown reasons for immense optimism. Should they continue to improve, it would not be out of the realm of possibility for any (or all) of them to be treated as dynasty WR2s. If that’s a scenario you’re willing to buy into, now is the time to strike.

DeVante Parker, MIA

ADP = WR41

2019 Player Rank = PPR WR13

If Parker could be summarized by a cliché quotation, I have no doubt it would be “what a long, strange trip it’s been.” To that point, every time it appeared Parker was on the cusp of breaking out and realizing the massive potential he displayed in college, it would be one step forward, two steps back. Indeed, after recording a fine 744 yards as a sophomore, Parker dropped to 670 as a third-year pro, and then a mere 309 in 2018, while missing eight games in the process over those two years.

However, while it was surprising to see him re-up with Miami in the 2019 off-season, the move to bet on himself proved prescient, as Parker has set career highs across the board with a 64-1,065-9 line through 15 games, while also doubling his career scoring plays. A bastion of consistency since late September (excluding a contest against the Jets where he was concussed), Parker has secured at least four receptions in 10 of 11 games, topped 50 yards 10 times as well, and scored in seven contests. Through this performance he managed to secure a new, four-year deal worth $40 million ($21.5 million in guarantees).

It’s understandable if people still want to doubt the young man, given his circuitous route to fantasy stardom. After all, it’s not often we see player break out in his fifth year at the age of 26. However, putting these feelings aside, there is simply too much of a disparity between performance and cost to not take a shot.

Robby Anderson, NYJ

ADP = WR46

2019 Player Rank = PPR WR38

Robby Anderson turns on the jets (pun intended) at the end of the season, after disappointing owners early. Rinse, and repeat.

However, such is life for the enigmatic fourth-year receiver. Though he has displayed legitimate PPR WR1 upside in spurts, he simply hasn’t been able to put a full year together. There are always excuses to be had, whether it be the mercurial nature of the Jets quarterback situation, or the sub-optimal coaching and scheming. But the fact remains we haven’t yet seen Anderson put it all together through four seasons in the league.

Despite this, Anderson still has a chance to lead the team in receiving for the third year in a row (he is six yards behind teammate Jamison Crowder despite having received 23 fewer targets). He’s been a stable flex play over the past six weeks, with at least 60 receiving yards and/or a receiving score in each contest. But most importantly, he will be a free agent at the conclusion of the 2019 season.

It’s always folly to project value onto prospective free agents based on where they could land, as often times it winds up being a letdown. With Anderson, though, nearly any team in the league would be an upgrade over the moribund passing offense in New York. Given this, and the fact he’s still costed as a low-end WR4, he makes for a strong buy.

Diontae Johnson, PIT

ADP = WR55

2019 Player Rank = PPR WR41

Essentially the anti-Jets, the Steelers have shown a consistent ability to identify receiving talent and subsequently put their players in the best position to succeed. From Hines Ward to Santonio Holmes, Antonio Brown to JuJu Smith-Schuster, and now James Washington and Diontae Johnson. When the Steelers draft a receiver in the early rounds, it’s prudent for dynasty owners to pay attention.

While Johnson hasn’t quite found the success of the rookie receivers chronicled above, he’s done his best work in the month of December. Over the past three weeks Johnson has managed 19 receptions for 203 yards and two scores, even adding in a punt return touchdown for those who play in leagues with return bonuses. On the season he’s over 600 receiving yards with five scores, functioning as a PPR WR4 with WR2 upside on occasion.

With Ben Roethlisberger tentatively expected back in 2020, the offense should return to a sense of normalcy. While Johnson and Washington will be battling behind Smith-Schuster for the role of WR2, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Johnson win the job as he’s largely kept pace with the latter in yards while besting him in receptions and touchdowns. Regardless, there should be enough meat on the bone to support all three as viable fantasy assets, making Johnson a solid buy as a potential FLEX or WR3 contributor come 2020.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27 (even though I don’t post anymore).

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.